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Showing posts with label currencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label currencies. Show all posts

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Despite gold and silver prices being below their 2016 highs, each has done better than the S&P; 500 in 2017

With all eyes being on both cryptocurrencies and equity markets here at the halfway point of 2017, gold and silver have themselves proven to also be a positive investment despite the fact that they have not even reached their 2016 highs.  And while the three primary equity markets have all reached historic all-time highs at some point this year, it is interesting to note that both gold and silver have actually done better than the returns one would have received from investing in the S&P 500.

Since the U.S. presidential election, the stock market has remained strong, but what has surprised some financial analysts has been that the precious metals complex has been ever stronger, says Blanchard President and CEO David Beahm. 
“What is notable through the end of May is that gold and silver continue to outpace the strength in the stock market, leaving both precious metals very well-positioned for strong new rally waves if stocks turn lower in a seasonal correction phase or a bear cycle move,” Beahm says. “Typically, gold and silver perform well during periods of stock market weakness, but the fact that metals are climbing alongside the strength in stocks is notable from a historical perspective. It reveals that there is a strong safe-haven bid for metals and a desire to diversify away from stocks in the current environment.” 
The Blanchard Index 
Here’s how the market performance stacks up through late May: 
  • Gold +9.45%
  • Silver +8.13%
  • S&P 500 +7.91% - Seeking Alpha
Yet perhaps the most important technical indicator to look at going forward between the two markets is the fact that the P/E ratios for the S&P 500 are at nearly double their historic averages while gold and silver are more than 40 and 65% respectively below their all-time highs.  And this means that the far better investment right now is in the precious metals, especially as sovereign debt levels and currencies begin to show immense signs of weakness, and underlying supplies for the metals are reaching critical levels.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

As global currencies roil in turmoil, Bitcoin has now officially reached parity with the price of gold

After shifting Westward since the beginning of the year, when Bitcoin's price movements were primarily tied to Chinese influence, the crypto-currency has not only reached a new all-time high on March 2, but it has also achieved parity with the current price of gold.

Diverging together at $1236 apiece just minutes ago, the alternative choices to holding fiat currencies are now justifiably vying for the market share of individuals around the world who experiencing severe crises in their own economies and local currencies.

Bitcoin Chart:


Gold Chart:

Live New York Gold Chart [Kitco Inc.]

Global currency troubles:

Venezuela: The Central Bank of Venezuela says the country is down to just $10.5 billion in foreign reserves. At the same time, Caracas has to meet debt obligations of $7.2 billion this year.

Greece: Now, fresh tensions over the country’s bailout are putting that progress at risk. About 1.3 percent of deposits were pulled from the banks in January, while bad loans crept higher, an increase Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras blamed on borrowers using the deadlock with creditors as an excuse to avoid making their payments.

Greek officials are meeting in Athens this week with representatives of the euro area and International Monetary Fund to set out the policies Greece must undertake to unlock more loans. The government foresees an accord in March or early April, but the scale of pending issues raises concerns they may be politically hard to sell at home.

U.S.: On March 15, the latest suspension expires and the debt limit will likely reset a little north of $20 trillion.

If Congress has not voted by mid-March to either extend the suspension or raise the ceiling, Mnuchin will have to start using special accounting measures just to keep paying the country's bills without violating the borrowing limit.

With the gold price currently being held down through the Comex and London derivatives markets, the likelihood of Bitcoin's price soaring well past that of the yellow metal is very real, especially as the Federal Reserve has come out in recent days almost assuring the markets of another rate hike.  And this will only add more fuel to the crypto-currency's legacy as it officially becomes one of the world's most popular alternatives to holding one's wealth in any sovereign currency.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Turkey's stabilization of the Lira came by dumping dollars and having their citizens rush into gold

Earlier today a new report out showed that China continued dumping dollars in November at the rate of $30 billion, taking their 12 month totals to $404 billion.  At the same time, demand for gold has skyrocketed in China where premiums on the metal are ranging between $50 - $800 per ounce.

And now we are discovering that Turkey's recent call for their citizens to get rid of their dollars and either buy gold or Lira has resulted in a slowdown in the devaluation of their currency, and a stabilization of the Lira over a short period of time.

Asked by their President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to shun the dollar, Turks are favoring gold over liras. 
On the face of it, the appeal to defend the Turkish currency worked. It arrested the biggest three-week surge in foreign-currency deposits since August as Turks drew down a net $450 million from these accounts in the week ended Dec. 9. But residents also boosted their precious metal holdings, traditionally denominated in dollars, by $700 million, a hint that confidence in their currency remains tenuous, according to Nomura Inc. - Bloomberg Markets
Gold demand around the world has been red hot over the past month as confidence in nearly all currencies falls to decades long lows.  And contrary to the dollar's recent moves over 103 on the dollar index, much of this has been due to nations like China, Turkey, Belgium and others dumping Treasuries and their dollars reserves.

As governments look towards creating policies to try to ban cash as a way to protect their dying monetary systems, more and more people are realizing that the current fiat money system that has been prevalent around the world since the 1970's is collapsing around them.  And those that are agile enough to move out of their devaluing currencies and into a sounder form of money such as gold before the supply becomes completely unaffordable, are the ones who will, just like what is slowly taking place in Turkey, be prepared during this emerging currency and banking crisis where even the dollar is no longer safe.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Following the Fed rate hike and spike in the dollar, the gold price spread between London and China soars to $50

Gold prices were once again beaten down in the United States following the Federal Reserves decision on Dec. 14 to raise rates by .25 bps in only the second move by the central bank in the last decade.  And while gold was sold off on Wednesday as well as early Thursday morning in New York, markets in Shanghai have not followed the same path as those in London and the Comex.

In fact with the London AM Fix coming out just a few hours ago, the price spread between the physical and paper markets have now spiked to a record $50 difference.

Shanghai Price Fix


London Price Fix


As mentioned earlier this week in another article, the divergence in official prices are also being expanded by record amounts of premiums placed upon gold by the market makers in China.  In fact, according to analyst and statistician Dr. Jim Willie, the premiums necessary to purchase large quantities of gold have forced prices right now to exceed $2000 per ounce in the physical markets.

As the dollar continues to strengthen the price of gold in nearly all other currencies and markets will continue to rise, and in some cases break through record levels.  And what we are seeing right now in the price of gold out of both London and the Comex is not indicative of the record demand being created all across the world which is the primary basis between the spreads in price we are seeing between the London fix and the one coming out of Shanghai.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Despite fall in paper price, gold demand at 5 year high as fears of a supply shortage causing global scramble for the metal

By now most precious metals investors should have realized that the old standard 'spot price' that once dominated gold and silver is on its way out, and acts as little more than a paper value for derivative contracts.  And this can be seen by the price divergence in spreads between the London Fix, and its competition over in China at the Shanghai market.

But until the London/Comex price is gone for good it still controls the buying and selling costs here in the West.  And thanks to the tremendous shorting that has occurred in the paper markets since the Presidential election that took place on Nov. 8, the over $200 drop in price has done little to depress the appetite of gold purchases as the month of November saw the highest amount of buying in the last five years.
Gold demand in November soared to its highest level since the end of 2011 as investors took advantage of a steep drop in prices for the yellow metal following Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. election, according to data from BullionVault released Tuesday. 
The Gold Investor Index, run by Internet-based metals exchange operator BullionVault, jumped to 59.3 in November—its highest level since December 2011. the index stood at 56.8 in October. - Marketwatch
What is making up this increased demand for gold are not just China and Russia, who have continued their massive buying of gold through November of this year, but the inclusion of several other nations such as Britain, Vietnam, the U.S., and of course, India, who have joined in to start exchanging their currencies for gold in their reserves.

Much of this buying is also coming from the fact that outside the dollar, people are losing confidence in global currencies, especially after this year's Brexit event, Venezuelan hyperinflation, and the more recent attack on cash by India's Prime Minister Modi.  And the increase in purchasing worldwide has suddenly revealed incredible shortages that could soon be the catalyst for breaking Comex control over their depressing the spot price of gold.
“For the first time in history, gold supply into the future is under enormous pressure.” The warning from Mark Bristow, chief executive of London-listed Randgold, encapsulates the gold mining sector’s woes. 
Bullion’s only modest price recovery this year compared with other commodities has led the industry to cut spending on exploration dramatically to less than $4bn from almost $10bn in 2012. 
Petropavlovsk, a gold miner with assets in Russia, is a case in point. It has cut its exploration budget by two-thirds. 
“There is a chronic shortage of exploration money and as usual the gold price is not acting in the way everyone thought it would do,” says Peter Hambro, chairman of the company. 
This backdrop has left many in the industry forecasting a supply shortage by the end of the decade. - Financial Times
As an investor it is not the time to be fooled by the paper selloffs or shorting that is occurring in the Comex and other Western markets, but rather a time to take a serious look at supply and demand, and the consequences of dying confidence in most global currencies.  Because the lowered price that is also being coupled with dwindling supply right now is a an opportunity of the decade for the precious metals, and should prove to be very profitable once the world moves completely away from London and New York's control over the market.

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Demand for gold in the U.S., China, and India on fire as lack of trust in currencies signal a new coming crisis

In just the past month, and especially since the Nov. 8 Presidential election, the demand for gold throughout the world has increased at a rapid pace.

We have already documented the intense scramble for gold in India over the past three weeks as Prime Minister Modi began implementing the banning of some cash, and the institution of capital controls. But even with the selling off of gold in the Western paper markets that has seen the spot price drop by more than $200 in the past four weeks, it has done nothing to effect the physical gold markets where premiums have spiked to three year highs, and where a record number of U.S. gold eagles have been sold just in November by the U.S. Mint.


Graphic courtesy of SRS Rocco Report
Investment demand for Gold Eagles surged during the last day in November pushing sales to a new monthly record.  Not only did Gold Eagle sales for November reach a new record high for the year, it surpassed sales during the same month last year by 52%. 
It seems as if investors are once again taking advantage of lower gold prices.  I had planned to publish the article on Wednesday (last day of the month) showing that November sales hit a new record high, but the U.S. Mint updated their figures yesterday reporting another 20,000 Gold Eagles oz were sold on the 30th. 
So, as of Nov 29th, the U.S. Mint Gold Eagle sales reached a new high for the year of 127,500 oz.  Then they sold another stunning 20,000 oz in one day for a total of 147,500 Gold Eagle oz for November: - SRS Rocco Report
Over in China the process to exchange dollars for gold has shifted into high gear as the country that runs the world's largest physical gold market dumped hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Treasury reserves and used them to import nearly 1,000 tons of gold in just in the last quarter.  And premiums at the Shanghai Gold Exchange have soared to well over $30 per ounce as seen by the spread enacted between the Shanghai and London AM/PM price fixes.

While paper gold traders can't seem to dump the precious metal fast enough, physical gold demand is soaring around the world. India retail premiums are spiking (amid demonetization), local China premiums soar to a 3-year-high (as capital controls loom), and coin sales from the US Mint have risen for the 4th straight month, accelerating post-election to the highest since July 2015 since Trump's victory at the election. 
Following the initial panic-buying across India after Modi's demonetization effort shook the nation's faith in fiat currency (sending local gold premiums soaring), news of reported gold import curbs in China (and looming capital controls) has sent gold premiums in China near three-year highs amid limited supply of the precious metal (as Reuters reports)... 
The import curbs may be part of China's efforts to limit outflows of the yuan after the currency's slide to its weakest in more than eight years, traders say. China allows only 15 banks to import gold, including three foreign lenders. 
"There is severe restriction on the banks' quota to import gold into China. Each one of them have to justify their need," a Hong Kong-based banker said.
Gold was sold in China at about $24 an ounce above the international spot benchmark this week. Premiums went as high as $30 last week, the most since January 2014, according to Thomson Reuters data. - Zerohedge
When a market or sovereign government manipulates the price of a commodity, security, or equity contrary to the demand of that asset, the end result is always the same... a run on those assets similar to the way a populace would rush to clean out a grocery store in the advent of a natural disaster.  And as nearly all global currencies start to be rejected by their people in lieu of this year's concerted efforts to ban or restrict the use of cash, the worldwide run on gold appears now to be in full swing, and only 1% of the global population is aware of it.

Monday, November 14, 2016

The dollar vs. gold dichotomy: As dollar strengthens it opens door for greater gold buying

As we have mentioned many times before here at The Daily Economist, you should not value gold simply in its relation to the dollar.  In fact, all one has to do is look at countries like Venezuela and now India to know that when a nation's currency loses confidence or value, gold soars to all-time highs in relation to their money.

Of course we in the U.S. quite often are only interested in what happens to things in relation to the dollar, and in many cases rightly so since it still holds the position as the global reserve currency.  But that in itself should not be a deterrent since the recent strength in the dollar has created an incredible buying opportunity for physical gold.

5 Day dollar chart:


One Week Gold Chart:


As you can see in the above charts, in the same period that the dollar climbed 400 bps to over 100 on the index, gold fell to $1216 and its lowest point vs. the dollar in some months.

But here is the catch many gold bugs fail to realize... when the dollar strengthens it means that your purchasing power in that currency is much greater, so you inevitably get more 'bang for your buck'.  It is only when the dollar is collapsing and gold prices are also falling that purchasing gold becomes a losing proposition.

A stronger dollar is bad news for foreign markets as seen by the historic drop in the Chinese Yuan as well as in the Euro and Yen.  And it also means that investors and traders there will be looking towards gold as a safe haven to protect against the devaluing of their currency, which will lead to even greater shortages in gold than we already have today.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

As expected, Trump victory drives gold price back over $1300 as global markets uncertain of future

As we at The Daily Economist wrote yesterday, the opportunity for short-term anti-establishment bets in gold, currencies, and the stock markets came to fruition when Donald Trump successfully beat the odds and won the White House early on Wednesday morning.

Starting with his taking of Florida in the early evening, and culminating with his surpassing of 270 electoral votes around 2:30am, global markets treated the Trump victory like a Brexit part two, and gold was definitely a benefactor by rising over 5% at one point.

Gold jumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday to its strongest in six weeks as investors snapped up safe havens with Republican Donald Trump winning the race for the White House over Democrat Hillary Clinton. 
It marked gold's biggest single-day gain since June 24 when it rose as much as 8 percent when Britain decided to leave the European Union. It closed up 4.8 percent that day. 
A Trump win, which many see could lead to economic and global uncertainty, may also push the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold off from raising interest rates next month, further burnishing gold's draw, analysts say. - CNBC
Despite the fact that Trump will not officially take office for another 72 days, his victory will reverberate around the world's markets for some time as the uncertainty of new fiscal and monetary policies that may or may not be beneficial to Wall Street will have a significant effect on gold going forward.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Chairman of China's Gold Association confirms SDR just one step in the future backing of the Yuan with gold

Song Xin is the Chairman of China's Gold Association and has spoken strongly in the past of the need to see a return to a gold standard for global currencies.  And on the Association's website, Xin has a publication out where he suggests that the nation's push to internationalize the SDR basket of currencies is just one step of many towards the ultimate goal of a gold backed Yuan which will be the cornerstone of the Silk Road initiative.

Song Xin, Chairman of the China Gold Association, General Manager and Party Committee Secretary of the China National Gold Group Corporation: Stick to the gold mission and boost innovative development 
As the sole central enterprise in the gold industry, China National Gold Group Corporation is a firm defender of renminbi internationalization, pioneering demonstrator of the country’s “One Belt and One Road”, and faithful guardian of a happy life for people. It’s the direction that we should strive for. 
On March 10 during the two assemblies, Song Xin, Chairman of the China Gold Association, General Manager and Party Committee Secretary of the China National Gold Group Corporation, was the guest in Xinhuanet’s 2016 two assemblies special Interview. In the program Dialogue with New State-owned Enterprises and Cheer up in the “13th Five-Year Plan”, he proposed the conclusions above. Besides, in the in-depth dialogue, Song Xin systematically illustrated topics including the functions of renminbi internationalization, effectively enhancing gold supply, realizing improved quality and efficiency of enterprises, practicing the central party’s “Five Development Theories”, and fulfilling the responsibilities of central enterprises. 
About Gold’s Functions: Increase Gold Reserves And Accelerate Renminbi Internationalization. A Close Relationship between Increasing Gold Reserves And Joining The SDR 
When the credit lines of paper currency declines and there are enough gold reserves, people can be less worried about the existing credit system and enhance their confidence in the currency. 
Last year, China joined the IMF (International Monetary Fund) Special Drawing Rights (SDR), signifying the renminbi's march towards internationalization.
Song Xin pointed out that the renminbi is closely related to gold. Gold is priced in US dollars throughout the world and in renminbi in China. There is a special relation between the renminbi and gold. We have continuously increased gold reserves since China strove to join the SDR basket of currencies. By the end of February this year, our gold reserves have increased to 1788.45 tonnes. In other words, China has continuously increased its official gold reserves and publicized the amount to the world, keeping a close relation with renminbi internationalization and joining the SDR. - CNGold.Org.CN
China is moving fast and furiously towards a full scale internationalization of their currency in global trade and settlement, and as Koos Jansen notes in his own article on this...
I think for China the SDR is just a means to an end. The end being to internationalize the renminbi, which of course is connected to the dollars retreat. And as Song Xin clearly states, “gold forms the very material basis for modern fiat currencies” and, “gold reserves should become the cornerstone … for renminbi internationalization”.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Rothschild dumps stocks and buys gold during 2nd quarter of 2016

George Soros, Stanley Drunkenmiller, and Carl Icahn weren't the only billionaire fund managers to have sold off their stocks and increased their gold holdings since the beginning of the year.  In fact, the grand-daddy of all financiers, Lord Rothschild, published in his semi-annual report that he had cut stocks from 55% in his fund's portfolio down to just 45%.  And in their place he upped his stake in gold to 8%.
The six months under review have seen central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30% of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale. 
To date, at least in stock market terms, the policy has been successful with markets near their highs, while volatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly all classes of investment have been boosted by the rising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remains anaemic, with weak demand and deflation in many parts of the developed world.
Many of the risks which I underlined in my 2015 statement remain; indeed the geo-political situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US  in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks. 
In times like these, preservation of capital in real terms continues to be as important an objective as any in the management of your Company’s assets. In respect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quoted equities we have reduced our exposure from 55% to 44%. Our Sterling exposure was significantly reduced over the period to 34%, and currently stands at approximately 25%. We increased gold and precious metals to 8% by the end of June. We also increased our allocation to absolute return and credit, which delivered positive returns over the period, benefiting from a number of special situations. Within this category our new association with Eisler Capital had an encouraging start. We expect this part of the portfolio to be an increasingly important contributor to overall returns. 
On currencies, we reduced our exposure to Sterling in anticipation of Brexit and the generally unsettled UK political environment. Our significant US Dollar position has now been somewhat reduced as, following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interesting opportunities in other currencies as well as gold, the latter reflecting our concerns about monetary policy and ever declining real yields - Zerohedge

Sunday, August 14, 2016

India to start tracking cash purchases of gold by its citizens

India's central government is implementing a new policy to deter citizens from purchasing gold using cash.

Under the guise of stopping 'black market' gold purchasing, jewelers are now being required to document cash purchases of gold by anyone, and not to allow annual purchases using cash of over Rs 2 lakh, which is around $3000 U.S. dollars.

Every gold purchase+ made through cash will now have to be tracked by jewellers, irrespective of the bill size, as part of the central government's drive against black money. 
Jewellers are to keep track of the total cash purchase+ made by a customer's during the year, to check if it exceeds the threshold limit of Rs 2 lakh. What's more, the income tax department will keep a close tab on each jeweller to see if any such purchase is going unreported. 
According to current rules, a jewellery buyer will have to produce PAN card+ only when the purchase is over Rs 2 lakh+ . But PAN card is not mandatory for purchases below Rs 2 lakh. "This has led to scopes for a section of people who keep purchase below Rs 2 lakh to avoid any surveillance. Instead of buying gold in bulk, they go for repeated cash purchases and much of it gets unnoticed," said Priyabrata Pramanik, additional director (Income Tax, intelligence and criminal investigation). Such incidents of evading regulatory radar has prompted the central government to ask jewellers to be more proactive. - Times of India
India has been using capital controls such as these to put pressure on its people to deter gold buying in lieu of alternative consumer spending using the Rupee currency.  This of course has led to a massive black market smuggling operation to try to bring more gold into the country.

Gold is the enemy to fiat currencies and the current global financial system which has allowed governments to expand monetary supplies far beyond fiscally responsible levels.  And the biggest fear to central banks today is that people will suddenly awaken to their schemes of quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and decide to rush headlong into the metal causing a financial collapse that would not only destroy most global currencies, but also bring down governments that rely upon infinite money printing to protect their establishment, and keep themselves in power.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Gold has never been cheaper in relation to the dollar in the history of the U.S.

When you measure gold versus any currency the thing you must always do is compare it to purchasing power rather than the 'price'.  For example, the price of gold in relation to the Euro and Yen is currently right near their all-time highs but the price in relation to the dollar is still 35% below that level.

Additionally, and since we live in an era where all currencies are fiat and backed by nothing, one must expand upon this 'purchasing power' balance scale and look at the price in relation to different periods of the currency.  This is because over time the currency will intrinsically become devalued, and you can find a relationship between the price from say 70-100 years ago, and the price relation today.

On Aug. 9 Bill Holter discovered a chart that compared the price of gold in dollars through a historic outlay that goes back to 1913 when the Federal Reserve was founded, and when a central bank began controlling the nation's money.  And what you see in that chart is astounding as the devaluation of the dollar, and increase to the money supply has become so great, that gold in dollars are now cheaper than at anytime in America's history.

unnamed
Let’s start by deconstructing this down to what it really means. First, I must confess I do not know whether this chart is comparing the “priced” amount of U.S. gold to the monetary base or rather the price of gold to the monetary base (because the axis is not labeled). Either way, this chart tells us something VERY important! 
The price of gold relative to the monetary base has never been lower than it is right now other than the at the end of last year. 
Looking at the chart, you can clearly see the “markup” of gold in 1933 from $20.67 to $35. You can also see the run from $35 to $850 during the 1970’s and peaking in 1980. 
You can also see the turn in 2000-2001 when gold traded down to $256 per ounce. These were very important generational turns but we can glean something even more important from this chart. In relation to the monetary base, you can now purchase gold below $20.67, below $35 and below $256 when adjusted for the monetary base outstanding! The monetary base has grown and grown for 100 years, it has exploded in the last 8 years. - Silver Doctors

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Economist Marc Faber is now telling investors to put 25% of their portfolio into physical gold

Last week, famed economist Marc Faber spoke at a seminar for the Chartered Financial Analyst group out of Chicago, which brings together many of the top investment professionals in the United States.  During his time behind the podium, the Gloom, Boom, and Doom economist advocated that the global economy and financial systems have reached such a point where investors need to re-allocate much of their portfolios to physical assets such as gold, and even suggested that they replace currencies and bonds with up to 25% of their allocation going towards the precious metal.

Every year, Faber is brought on stage by an organization of elite investors, the CFA Institute, during a seminar in Chicago for highly trained investment professionals from throughout the world. And he was there Thursday. 
Why would an investing horror star be there? Because the most savvy of investment pros are taught not only to cherish the sweet delights of a soaring stock market, but also to look at what could go wrong, to test their happy thoughts and to prepare. 
Faber challenges oblivious investors in his "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," which focuses more on doom than boom. But he also points out that even during doom there is always something that will boom. Faber said he wouldn't go as far as to suggest people buy property in Aleppo, Syria, now, but you get the idea: Money is made when investors dig through carnage, not when they buy something that's been popular a long time. 
Faber told the investment professionals gathered in Chicago that they shouldn't be prejudiced against gold. Although the typical investment pro keeps less than 1 percent of his or her portfolio in gold, Faber suggests 25 percent. He sees it as protection from a dangerous combination of tremendous government debt and massive bond-buying by central banks globally trying to fight off recession with near-zero interest rates. Besides gold, Faber has invested in Asian real estate and some stocks and bonds. - Chicago Tribune

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Recent gold manipulation by the banks may actually be a good thing for the gold price and bull market

In any market, the worst thing that can happen is for a particular asset to rise or increase too fast because this normally indicates that the move is either speculative or bubble driven.  And quite often when assets like stocks or gold move up too quickly, price movement down can be just as volatile as market forces seek to 'fill the gap' between buyers and sellers.

For years gold and silver owners have lamented the obvious and brutal manipulation that has suppressed metal price and values to protect the dollar and other central bank created fiat currencies.  But in the case of gold price manipulation over the past month, it might actually be a good thing, and will ensure that the gold bull market continues forward in the months and years to come.

The manipulators are making it easier for us to accumulate gold at a cheap price.  Every time they hit gold I buy. 
I exchanged emails with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts yesterday about the  sell-off of the price of gold this week caused by the obvious “invisible” hand of the Fed.  Note this was a week in which Japan was supposedly going to drop $100 billion in helicopter money at Ben Bernanke’s behest - an announcement which should have sent gold soaring: 
Me:   I agree this was a manipulated take-down of the price but,  you know as well anyone, markets never go straight up except the Dow/S&P 500 when the Fed wants to make those indices go straight up - like now.    Gold was overdue for a trading correction. I agree there’s some idiots out there who think the Fed is powerless now over gold - that’s ignorance or sensationalism. 
Dr. Roberts:   Is there such a thing as a trading correction when the price is controlled and manipulated? Is it a trading correction when the bullion banks dump, as we have shown numerous times, massive paper shorts in the futures market? 
Me:  I agree with your point there - but to be honest, I like to see any market pullback after it has the type of run that gold has had since early February. Should it be pulling back from a much higher price platform? Yes.  But gold was on the verge of going parabolic, which is never healthy in any market. The Fed is doing us a favor. I have been moving a lot of money from my checking account into my Bitgold account this week every morning. If gold was not being pushed down, I might not have added any. 
The other interesting aspect of your point there is the amount of paper the Fed is needing to throw at gold to keep the price down. The open interest has been more or less at an all-time high on the Comex for a few weeks now. The last time the open interest was this high was when gold was pushing $1900. 
In other words, it is requiring a much bigger relative effort for the Fed to prevent the price of gold from spinning out of its control now than it did when gold was about to launch over $2000. - Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Yes Virginia, central banks do manipulate gold prices according to new White Paper

Despite having overwhelming data that the price of gold is manipulated in both the Comex paper markets, and through an elite body of people at the London Gold Fix, economists and central bankers have continuously lied about their involvement in depressing gold as a means to protect their currencies and prop up derivative markets.

But on July 20, a White Paper published by Dirk G. Bauer at the University of Australia School of Business was revised to show just how much central banks use gold price manipulation and the gold carry trade to protect their paper fiat currencies, and keep their managed systems from imploding due to normal market forces.

Central banks hold gold reserves that are designed to build confidence in fiat currency. This confidence is undermined if the price of gold falls significantly or rises significantly. Central banks thus have an incentive to manage the price of gold. Such management is evident in fixed gold prices in the early 20th century, in Central Bank Gold Agreements more recently and in the asymmetric correlation between monthly central bank gold reserve changes and gold price changes. The empirical analysis further analyzes gold lending by central banks, linkages between central banks, bullion banks and mining companies and the gold carry trade. We conclude that coordinated and shadowy gold operations by central banks are necessary for successful gold price and gold reserves management and demonstrate the power of market forces relative to central banks. - SSRN
There are no such things are markets anymore, only interventions.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Economist who called for banning cash now says he would buy gold

One of the banking cartel's most outspoken economists is suddenly singing the value of owning gold.  And in an interview over the weekend, the chief economist for Citi said that in today's negative rate environment, owning gold as part of a currency portfolio is a must.

Citi economist Willem Buiter was one of the first to call for a banning of cash last year as central banks stood on the precipice of lowering interest rates into negative territory in the hopes of stimulating consumer spending.  But as the outcry against eliminating physical currency created the backlash that helped drive gold prices up since the beginning of the year, Buiter is now backtracking and seeing gold ownership as an important hedge to central bank policies.

In the books of most gold lovers, Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter is noted down as the man who thinks gold is a “6,000 year bubble.” 
However, in a recent interview with Epoch Times [Skip to 38:00 in the video], he presented a much more nuanced position and said he would even own gold as part of a diversified portfolio of currencies.  
“It competes with other fiat currencies, the dollar, the yen, the euro. And if these currencies now yield negative interest rates or are at risk of negative yields in the U.K. and the United States, then the currency that at least has a zero interest rate, looks better.” 
“Gold, in times of uncertainty and especially in days of uncertainty laced with negative rates, looks pretty good. “ - The EpochTimes

Thursday, June 30, 2016

As Deutsche Bank teeters on edge of collapse, rise in gold prices signal warning of pending monetary collapse

Since the price of gold has been rising steadily since January of this year, we already know that it wasn't simply last week's Brexit event which created the catalyst for gold prices to climb to a new two-year high.  And following Britain's historic move to leave the European Union six days ago, analysts are now seeing gold signal a warning sign that a larger monetary event may be just on the horizon.

Modern financial collapses tend not to come from economic recession or declines in the stock markets, but rather in liquidity crises that emerge from insolvent banks... such as from those we saw from Northern Rock in 2007, and Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, and Morgan Stanley a year later.  And with the Federal Reserve's stress tests on banks coming to a completion, fears are emerging that Germany's largest financial institution is ready bring about a new monetary collapse.

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted. 
Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime. 
The IMF also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally. This means that in the global interconnected game of counterparty dominoes, if Deutsche Bank falls, everyone else will follow. - Zerohedge
There is a reason why the 'smartest men in the room' have been not only divesting themselves and the funds they manage out of stocks, and instead are using those proceeds to buy into gold as their largest investment.  And that reason is because the global financial system is going through a fundamental sea-change, and as yet there is no clear determination on how things will play out... only that it is crucial to be in some form of physical safe haven asset that carries no counter-party risk from the paper markets.

Gold has always acted as a barometer for the strength or weakness of currencies, but in today's paper and electronic monetary system, it now acts as a warning sign on the strength of banks, markets, and economies as well.  And with central banks, sovereign governments, hedge funds, and those few who have woken up to the warnings on the horizon having bought gold to the point that supplies are now extremely tight even before the crash begins, it is unlikely that there will be much supply left at all for those who do not buy into gold now rather than wait until it is far too late to acquire it.

Friday, June 24, 2016

Gold pops $85 on Brexit vote while currencies and markets in chaos

June 24 is now a new red letter day in Britain's history as the people chose to Brexit versus remaining as a subject nation in the European Union.


By a relatively close, but decisive vote, Britain has begun the process of becoming the first European Union country to leave the coalition, and has triggered not only financial chaos in currencies and markets, but has opened the door for nations like France and Scotland to call for their own independence referendums in the wake of the British Exit.

As expected, gold was the number one safe haven along with the dollar, as the metal shot up $85 when news of the exit vote hit.  In addition, the Pound Sterling fell to 30 year lows against the dollar, and the Euro dropped 500 bps in a single instant.

Gold has now crossed a major resistance level over $1308, and with geo-political turmoil such as Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron officially announcing he will resign in the fall, the monetary metal should have a clear path to $1450 per ounce in the coming weeks.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Global central banks buy gold for 21st straight month as dumping of dollars continues to accelerate

For the 21st straight month, central banks around the world having been buying physical gold as a way to protect their currencies, and create monetary reserves that are not based on dollar assets.

The rush to replace dollars has become a high priority, especially for emerging nations, as the reserve currency loses much of its luster.  In fact, since the beginning of the year foreigners have dumped $123 billion in U.S. Treasuries which is the largest amount in the first three months of a year since 1978.
Led by Russia, central banks remained strong buyers of gold in the first quarter of the year purchasing 109 tonnes. This represents the 21st consecutive quarter that central banks have been net purchasers of gold as they continue to diversify away from the US dollar according to the latest World Gold Council report. 
Despite the steady buying most developing countries still hold less than 10% of their reserves in gold, compared to 60% or more in places like the US, Germany and Greece. The much higher share in developed economies is mainly a legacy of the Gold Standard, but but even the European Central Bank, established long after the introduction of fiat currencies, holds more than 25% of its reserves in gold. - Mining.com
What this also means is that sometime very soon, the price of gold will have to be revalued higher to act as a backstop for the world's massive debt currently held by most of the above central banks.  And this in turn will be the catalyst for not only using gold as a monetary reserve for debt, but as an eventual backstop for currencies that are screaming for real assets to once again be the standard for money rather than simply sovereign confidence.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Billionaire investor with one of best track records in the world goes big into gold over dollar

There is an old saying that goes, if you want to be rich, do what the rich do.  And while less than 1% of the American people have any allocation in gold in their savings or retirement portfolios, a billionaire investor with one of the best investing track records in the world has not only gone big time into gold, but believes it will be the best trade in light of devaluing currencies, and central bank interventions.

Stan Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor with one of the best long-term track records in money management, said the bull market in stocks has "exhausted itself" and that gold is his largest currency allocation. 
Druckenmiller, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York on Wednesday, said while he’s been critical of Federal Reserve policy for the last three years he expected at that time it would lead to higher asset prices. 
“I now feel the weight of the evidence has shifted the other way; higher valuations, three more years of unproductive corporate behavior, limits to further easing and excessive borrowing from the future suggest that the bull market is exhausting itself,” said Druckenmiller, who averaged annual returns of 30 percent from 1986 through 2010 at his Duquesne Capital Management. 
As bankers experiment with "the absurd notion of negative interest rates," Druckenmiller said, he’s wagering on gold. “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation," he said, without naming the metal. - Bloomberg