The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Monday, June 6, 2016

Horrific jobs report appears to be the trigger for recession outlook from financial economists

Just a day after the worst jobs report since 2010 was published, financial economists from both J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have put recession outlook on high watch.
Recession models followed by both institutions show an economic recession for the U.S. economy crossing the danger point, and where these indicators have successfully forecast recessions for the last 45 years.
This is what JPM said: “This morning’s employment report also raised the recession probabilities, although for counterintuitive reasons. We do not include the payrolls number in the recession model because it is subject to larger revisions than other labor market data. But the unemployment rate enters the model in two ways. As a near-term indicator, we watch for increases in the unemployment rate that occur near the beginning of recessions. So this morning’s move down in the unemployment rate lowered the recession probability in our near-term model. But we also find the level of the unemployment rate to be one of the most useful indicators ofmedium-term recession risk. So the move down in unemployment raises the model’s view of the risk of economic overheating in the medium run and raises the “background risk” of recession.” - Zerohedge
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Now that Washington has destroyed Brazil, their next BRICS target is South Africa

As Brazil deals with the aftermath of the Washington funded coup that ousted President Dilma Rousseff, the establishment appears now to be going after their next BRICS target… that of South Africa.
On June 3, S&P is preparing to downgrade South Africa’s credit rating following default threats and months of protests that are alleged to have been created by funding out of Washington and other U.S. backed NGO’s.
Major protests have gripped South Africa in recent months as political forces have emerged to give voice to a growing discontent with the government and ruling party. Beneath the surface of these demonstrations organized around legitimate grievances, however, there’s an undercurrent of political manipulation.
South Africa and its ruling African National Congress (ANC) party have been targeted for destabilization due to the country’s burgeoning relationship with China and other non-Western nations, most obviously typified by South Africa’s inclusion in BRICS, the association of the five major emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. - Mint Press News

dollar versus brics
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Saturday, June 4, 2016

Was Yellen's secret meeting at the White House to discuss quiet bank run by Americans as they move cash into gold?

There was an interesting theory being discussed earlier this week that suggests that Americans are quietly doing runs on banks in which they are taking their dollars out of the system and storing them in physical gold.  And that this phenomenon is becoming so prevalent that it may have been the primary reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's emergency secret meeting with President Barack Obama back in April.

Since the beginning of the year, sales of gold bullion have been setting new records, and the price is up over 16% since January.  And over the last 30 days alone, billionaire investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, and several hedge other fund managers, have publicly stated they are getting out of stocks and taking a good percentage of their money to purchase gold.


I believe that Yellen went to the White House to inform Obama and team that the Fed is witnessing a quiet, steady bank run taking place in the U.S. The Fed is worried about the fact that the people are apparently starting to figure out how totally corrupt the monetary and financial systems have become, and are now taking action to financially protect themselves. 
The Fed is seeing bank balances being exchanged for cash and metals. Trotting out Summers and Draghi to demonize cash ($100s and Euro 500s) backfired; savvy people said to themselves, “If the government, banker shills (e.g., Summers; Peter Sands (author of the Harvard “ban cash” paper; etc.) and bankers are saying “A,” the truth must be “Z,” and we better get some of our money out of the banks, before the bail-ins that have been legalized and formalized are actually implemented.” 
The establishment desperately needs to go to a cashless system, in order to effect the bail-in agenda, gain full-spectrum control over financial assets, and implement the IMF-proposed wealth tax, among other gambits, but they need more time to implement this. They must get non-cash payment devices into the hands of every citizen before going live with the cashless regime, but they are not there yet. However, their progress to date has been prodigious. - Investment Research Dynamics
So when you see the obvious manipulation by the Fed to attempt to drive down gold prices as a means to desperately protect the dollar and their monetary policies that will eventually steal wealth from those who store their money in bank accounts, remember that your only protection is to get out of the system entirely... otherwise the time for you to have a choice in what to do with your own wealth will be taken away from you.

June Fed rate hike chances crushed as new jobs collapse and uncounted non-workers soar

Over the past few weeks we have spoken alot on the Fed’s use of public announcements by its cadre of regional Fed Presidents to try to sway markets into believing that the central bank was sure to hike interest rates in either June or July.  And of course, inside most of this rhetoric is the single key component that is normally ignored by the computer algorithms that make up 75% of all trades, and that being the concept of data dependency.
Well in June 3, data dependency just went bye bye.
May’s non-farm payroll report just came out a couple hours ago, and it sent a shock through the entire financial system.  That is because the report printed a jobs number of just 38,000 new hires, which is the lowest single month since the height of the Great Recession back in 2010.
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Friday, June 3, 2016

Gold jumps $30 while dollar drops 100 bps as jobs report kills any chance of June rate hike

So much for the Fed sending out President after President last month to jawbone the central bank assuredly raising interest rates this month.  That is because on June 3 the newest jobs report came out, and it was perhaps the biggest blow to the long-standing meme that the economy was in total recovery.

In fact, the economy only created 38,000 jobs, which is the lowest number since September of 2010, and the smallest print since the height of the Great Recession.  But perhaps what is most chilling in all of this is that the report noted that 548,000 Americans simply vanished from the labor force, meaning they not only are out of work, but are also no longer counted by the government.

The worst jobs data since September 2010 has thrown ice cold water on The Fed's decision-making process and thrown a spanner in the market's narrative that everything is awesome. June rate hike odds crashed to 2% and July rate-hike odds plunged from 48% to 36%. The reaction to this sudden revelation of reality is striking as stocks plunge, gold soars, the US Dollar dumps and bond yields spike lower... - Zerohedge
In the meantime gold popped up $30 from the release of the jobs numbers and the dollar collapsed more than 100 bps now that the expectation of a rate hike for June has gone through the floor.

Payday loans: American workers can now owe their souls to the company store

A classic American song that originated in 1946, but was made famous by Tennessee Ernie Ford nine years later, speaks on American workers in the mining industry who were forced to use their wages in the mining company’s store, leaving them eternally in debt and eternally slaves to their jobs.  And while this song’s origins come from a real time in America’s history, as usual that same history is coming back today in a whole new rhyme.
That is because due to the decline in overall wages since the late 1970’s, more American workers are being forced to borrow from ‘payday’ lenders just to make it from check to check.  And rather than see their employees borrow money from a third party agency, companies are now giving workers their own version of ‘payday’ loans at a modicum interest of only 6-18%.
soul
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Thursday, June 2, 2016

One of the world's oldest banks sees gold price reaching all-time highs within two years

With the uncertainty of Britain's future role in the European Union, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's dire warning of a coming financial calamity, one of the world's oldest banks is diversifying itself into gold, and predicts the price will climb 40% or more within the next two years.

Berenberg Bank was established back in 1590, and still remains relevant as it holds 40 billion in assets under management.

The smart money, large institutional money, who understands diversification and gold’s function as a store of value continues to diversify into gold. There is an awareness of gold’s benefit as a hedging instrument and safe haven asset but also an awareness that the outlook for prices at these still depressed levels is very positive. 
This is seen in the view of Berenberg, which is in the fifth century of its existence and one of the oldest owner managed banks in the world, who see gold returning to  2012 levels at $1,900/oz per ounce. 
The less informed money continues not to appreciate the risks that are again building in the system. Risk appetite remains high and there is a distinct lack of awareness regarding how risks, such as BREXIT, may impact financial markets and traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, property and indeed deposits. - Zerohedge
Berenberg's entry into the gold markets follows a string of hedge fund managers as well as central banks who have accumulating gold at near record levels ever since the end of 2015.

China overtakes the U.S. as most competitive global economy

In their annual ranking for most competitive global economies, IMD announced on May 30 that China’s Hong Kong sector surpassed the United States on the list to move into the number one spot for 2016.
The U.S. had been number one of the rankings scale for the past three years, but massive regulation, higher taxes, declining infrastructures, and moves towards closed trade (TPP, TPIP) led to their dip down to number three behind China and Switzerland.
Top 10
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Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Gold prices cheap in relation to stocks (Dow) and oil

In the financial world, technicals can sometimes carry far more weight than fundamentals do.  Ie... stocks right now on the S&P and Dow indices remain close to their all-time highs despite the fact that Wall Street just had one of its worst earnings seasons since the Great Recession.  Thus investors have been trading primarily on technical analysis and Fed intervention, and have thrown out nearly all fundamental data as irrelevant.

With this in mind we will look at two interesting technical charts that compare stocks on the dow, as well as oil prices in relation to gold.

Gold versus the Dow:
This 50-year chart of the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial index from Macrotrends suggests otherwise. The graph tracks how many ounces of gold it would take to buy the Dow over any given month going back to 1966. 
In January of 1980 when gold in inflation-adjusted terms hit an all-time high of roughly $2,400 an ounce the ratio was 1.3 ounces and during the Great Depression it took 1.9 ounces to cover the Dow. 
That compares to highs around 40 between mid-1999 and mid-2001 when gold reached lows of $250 an ounce. 
When the nominal price of gold hit a record high above $1,900 in August 2011 the ratio was 6.4, but has now more than doubled to just under 15. 
That means despite the exceptional start to 2016 gold is still cheaper than it was for the 24 years between May 1972 and September 1996 and on a relative basis it's the cheapest since December 2007. - Mining.com
50 years of gold price vs Dow shows metal still a bargain

Gold versus oil:
The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007. In that work, Jastram finds that gold maintains its purchasing power over long periods of time, with the prices of other commodities adapting to the price of gold. 
Taking the broad lead from Jastram, my colleague, David Ranson, produced a study in April 2015 in which he used the price of gold as a long-term benchmark for the price of oil. The idea being that, if the price of oil changes dramatically, the oil-gold price ratio will change and move away from its long-term value. Forces will then be set in motion to move supply and demand so that the price of oil changes and the long-term oil-gold price ratio is reestablished. This is nothing more than a reversion to the mean. 
We begin our analysis of the current situation by calculating the oil-gold price ratios for each month. For example, as of May 24th, oil was trading at $49.24/bbl and gold was at $1231.10/oz. So, the oil-gold price ratio was 0.040. In June 2014, oil was at $107.26/bbl and gold was at $1314.82/oz, yielding an oil-gold price ratio of 0.082. The ratios for two separate periods are represented in the accompanying histogram - one starting in 1946 and another in 1973 (the post-Bretton Woods period). - Zerohedge
Two interesting technical ratios to watch in the market which can be signals as to which direction gold prices will eventually go.

As the Fed jawbones recovery and normalizing interest rates, debt defaults at highest levels since December

Nearly all alternative media economists have gone public to state that it is both unlikely, and irrational for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates now, and in the near future.  And this despite the central bank’s recent jawboning on mainstream television of a potential rate hike as early as next month.
But the problem is that the Fed and other central banks have waited too long, and gone too far in their zero interest rate policies, and quantitative easing programs.  And with the odds of a rate hike shooting up since the middle of May, debt default levels, especially for credit default swaps on the 10 year Treasury, are at their highest levels since the Fed raised rates a quarter point back in December.
fed-dollar
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