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Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment. Show all posts

Friday, May 4, 2012

Investor Jim Rogers sees America ready to expereince riots in the streets

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers sat down with the Wall Street Journal and predicted that the coming drop in the next leg of the financial crisis will push Americans over the top and the rioting we have seen taking place in Greece and other parts of Europe will appear all across the country.



“I’m more worried about those kind of problems [rioting] in the U.S. and Europe; this is where social unrest is going to be worse,” Rogers told the Journal.  “I would suspect that, when economic conditions get worse here and get worse in Europe, we’re going to see . . . you’ve seen governments fail in Europe; you’ve seen countries fail in Europe. I suspect you’re going to see more of it [rioting], yes.
“We saw it in London; we’ve seen it in several countries in Europe in the last year or two.  Yes, I expect to see it here, too.  If you don’t, look out your window” - ETF Daily News
Rogers also went on the interview to say that the Fed has zero credibilty, and no amount of money printing or economic policy will change the inevitable crash that is already setup to take place.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the American people are nearly at the tipping point, and our history of both peaceful and revolutionary protests are legendary.  As trends forecaster Gerald Celente has said, when people no longer have anything to lose, they lose it, and judging from today's unemployment numbers, that time is drawing ever closer.

The unemployed are gonna party like its 1981

While the Obama Administration will undoubtedly celebrate the manipulated 8.1% unemployment rate number printed on May 4th, those who are actually unemployed will be celebrating in a different way.  The number of people who are not counted as being in the labor force soared to the highest levels since 1981, when America was in the midst of the Carter induced stagflation period, and interest rates needed to be raised to almost 20 points before the system flushed out the financial virus's.

it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%. - Zerohedge
So when you can't find a job, the government sees you as a non-entity, and $5 trillion of government debt has created nothing, there is no choice but to spend your last few dollars on some brews or cheap whiskey, and toast the roaring 2000's, where bubbles gave you a job, and bursting bubbles took it away

Monday, March 19, 2012

Art Cashin shows that Government adjustments to jobs reports masking the real picture

Highly respected UBS economic analyst Art Cashin did a critique of the recent BLS reports coming out of the government regarding jobs and unemployment.  His focus was on the massive 'seasonally adjusted' tools that are used to estimate data that isn't confirmed, and with so much of the latest reports showing job growth that isn't actually there, Cashin assesses that the reports no longer carry much weight as an economic indicator.


Most economic data is seasonally adjusted. This is a good thing because there are seasonal patterns during the course of the year. But the sheer size of the recession we went through had an unintended impact on the way those algorithms run. When the economy fell off a cliff in the Great Recession it was like no other recession we have experienced, so it wasn’t easily compared. The systems received data in Q4 and Q1 expecting it to be particularly weak on a seasonal basis. Therefore, they adjusted upwards and that was not intended. There is an easy, un-confusing, fifth-graders-can-do-it, way around this, which is to look at the year-over-year growth rate which shows something quite ominous. When we look at our forward-looking indicators both sets surged initially coming out of the recession. Then they rolled over. They popped up briefly again about a year ago and now they have turned down again. The Weekly Leading Indicator is now at its worst readings since July 2009. These leading indicators have hardly been swayed from their recessionary trajectory. So it brings the bigger question, can unprecedented global monetary policy repeal the business cycle? And these pictures say no. - Zerohedge

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Unemployment benefit claims rise as job creation remains a government myth

It is easy to make statistics dance to whatever tune you desire when you control the data and how it is presented.  Ie... the fall in the unemployment rate to 8.3% when you fail to include all the people who are actually out of work.

But what cannot be manipulated is how many Americans apply for unemployment benefits, and for the third consecutive week, that number has beaten analyst expectations, and is the longest contiuous stretch since last year.

Initial claims printed +362K, missing consensus of +352K, and up from a upward revised, (of course) 354K. As a reminder, last week's print was expected to be 355K, instead coming at 351K spiking the market far higher. Needless to say, the response would have been far more muted had the number come at its true final print of virtually on top of expectations, but who cares anymore - everyone appears to enjoy lying and being lied to. That this miss comes ahead of a critical NFP print will likely have some scratching their heads especially since this is the first time we have seen three consecutive weeks of rises since August 2010. - Zerohedge

As a former Soviet dictator once said, it is not about who gets to vote, but who gets to COUNT the votes that matters.  So too is the ability of government agencies to obscure the unemployment through false reports, even when they contridict the ones they cannot manipulate.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

CBO report forecasts unemployment rate at 10% in 2012

In what assuredly would be a devastating economic indicator for President Obama, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) came out with a report forecasting the unemployment rate for 2012.  While manipulated BLS reports in November and December dropped the rate down to 8.5%, the truth is those numbers reflect less people receiving unemployment benefits and don't take into account the hundreds of thousands who fell off the roles.

And the fact that the CBO predicted negative $2.5 trillion in net debt by 2011 back in 2011 is largely ignored. Anyway, here are some of the highlights.
  • 2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6 - yes, we are cackling like mad too...
  • Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.
    • This forecast is utterly idiotic and is completely unattainable unless the US workforce drops to all time lows and the US economy generates 300,000 jobs a month for 10 years
  • Needless to say, CBO assumes the best of all worlds in this meaningless forecast
  • But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%. Thank you - CBO via Zerohedge


Never ask the government how many people are out of work, ask a bean counter, for they are the ones who are paying the benefits for those out of work.

Monday, December 12, 2011

New report shows housing and unemployment go hand in hand

While it has been conjectured for decades that there is a correlation between housing builds, prices, and growth and employment in the US, a new report shows just how strong that correlation is.

Additionally, as the FED has kept interest rates (mortgage rates low), home sales have not increased, and in fact have fallen because unemployment has increased.





So... with the FED mandates of employment and controlling inflation thrown out the window since 2007, do not expect housing prices or sales to increase anytime soon, as the Fed is lost in the wilderness on how to improve both.

Friday, December 2, 2011

New jobs numbers not what they seem as they actually lose traction despite the lower unemployment rate

This has been the week of the 4-sigma manipulation for the Obama administration regarding government reports.  No investor with half a brain cell ever relies upon them anymore, and the hoopla today from the jobs report is just another indicator that truth out of Washington is simply a Orwellian drama.

And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July then 261,200 in October [and finally 262,500 in November] . As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 262,500 263,700. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 15.8 million jobs in the next 61 60 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate." - Zerohedge

The primary reason for the drop in unemployment was tied to two factors... one, and increase in TEMP JOBS due to the holiday shopping season, and secondly, a MASSIVE drop in the number of people on the unemployment clain roles who dropped off and now arent counted on any record.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Today's job reports are meaingless as the US needs to create more than 250,000 per month to break even

Today's job report of 90000 new jobs created, and the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 9.0 were simply fake window dressing that even the markets did not accept as good news (Dow opened up -70 points).  In fact, the birth/death adjustment ended up being more than the actual net jobs created, which tells you the Labor Department had to scramble to even make the report positive.

However, the underlying issue still remains the 9% unemployed, the 16% TRULY unemployed, and the dire fact that the US would need to create 262,500 jobs per month through 2016 just to get back even with December of 2007.

"Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July [then 261,200 in October]. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200 262,500. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. - Zerohedge



And there appears to be no question today on the floor of the exchanges of how meaningless today's job report is.  But to the American people, it is a another month of hopium and delerium that will make for a very disappointing Christmas season.