The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Showing posts with label unemployment rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment rate. Show all posts

Monday, June 6, 2016

Horrific jobs report appears to be the trigger for recession outlook from financial economists

Just a day after the worst jobs report since 2010 was published, financial economists from both J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have put recession outlook on high watch.
Recession models followed by both institutions show an economic recession for the U.S. economy crossing the danger point, and where these indicators have successfully forecast recessions for the last 45 years.
This is what JPM said: “This morning’s employment report also raised the recession probabilities, although for counterintuitive reasons. We do not include the payrolls number in the recession model because it is subject to larger revisions than other labor market data. But the unemployment rate enters the model in two ways. As a near-term indicator, we watch for increases in the unemployment rate that occur near the beginning of recessions. So this morning’s move down in the unemployment rate lowered the recession probability in our near-term model. But we also find the level of the unemployment rate to be one of the most useful indicators ofmedium-term recession risk. So the move down in unemployment raises the model’s view of the risk of economic overheating in the medium run and raises the “background risk” of recession.” - Zerohedge
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Saturday, May 7, 2016

April jobs miss estimates by 40,000, with nearly all going all new jobs going to elderly

As today’s polar opposite Wall Street paradigm extorts, bad news is good news for banks, corporations, and investors.  And with today’s massive drop in new jobs for the month of April in relation to analyst expectations, the ‘good news’ is that chances of a Fed rate hike in June have now dropped to almost zero.
But for the rest of the American people, bad news is always bad news, and underlying the 140,000 new jobs ‘created’ by the economy last month, those who need employment the most lost positions while those who need it the least, gained.
Read more on this article here...

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Foreign bartender hires take unemployment rate below 5%

As usual, today’s new job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn’t what it seems, and proves once again that government reporting is simply a political tool for the state’s benefit rather than as a true barometer of the economy.  And all one simply has to do is look at how the Feb. 5 number came in far below analyst projections, yet the unemployment rate fell below 5% and to its lowest level in eight years.
And following a trend that started in 2009, and which has continued on the same path for the past six years, the vast majority of jobs created are low paying and part time service sector ones, with more given to foreign workers, both legal and illegal, than to American citizens.
foreign born workers 2
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Monday, September 28, 2015

Okun’s Razor: How can the Fed ever raise rates with real unemployment over 12%

There is one sure thing about central banks and government agencies… neither one will ever do the right thing.  And when the propaganda we have been getting for more than a decade from both the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suddenly was shattered 10 days ago when Janet Yellen chose not to raise interest rates, the reality of believing in false models and manipulated data revealed itself like a Black Swan.
Which brings us to an economic model known as Okun’s Law, which says that for every one point increase in the cyclical unemployment rate, two percentage points of negative growth in real GDP are experienced.

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Friday, September 4, 2015

Unemployment rate drops to 5.1% as more people not counted than actually got a job

There comes a certain point in time when manipulated data moves from that of subtle deception to the blatantly absurd, and today’s jobs report appears to have finally tilted those numbers fully into Bizzaro World.  Coming in well below analyst expectations, new jobs created were a lackluster 173,000 bringing the unemployment rate to a level not even seen during the Reagan years when there were less people, and more real opportunities in the economy.
And while 173,000 new jobs, and a 5.1% unemployment rate may be seen as a victory to some who most often never look beyond the headline numbers, the sad fact is 261,000 vanished from even being counted in the job market bringing the labor participation rate to an all time record of 94 million Americans not only out of work, but not even recognized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Friday, May 8, 2015

Unemplyment rate falls to 5.4% as economy creates 437,000 part time jobs, and ignores 93 million uncounted unemployed

The government propaganda machine was in full swing on May 8 as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced their newest job numbers report that showed a decline in the unemployment rate down to 5.4%.  In fact, the job numbers report missed analyst expectations by 5,000 with a print of 223,000 new jobs compared to a forecast of 228,000, with the most important indicator showing that of these new jobs created, 447,000 were part time positions while 252,000 full time jobs were removed from the economy.
And as has become the norm, the number of Americans not counted by the BLS rose to an all-time high of 93,194,000, which if included would show the unemployment rate over 24%.
 
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Sunday, October 5, 2014

New jobs report: More hiring’s for Grandma and less for Grandkids

As Wall Street swoons around today’s front line BS… err I mean BLS jobs report, the bottom line once again is that more people actually fell off the participation roles than actually found employment in September.  And even more disconcerting was the fact that the majority of these jobs were gained in the 55-69 age group, with 10K jobs actually being lost in the 25-54 range.
So to sum it up.  230,000 Grandmas and Grandpas found new low wage employment and 10,000 of their Kids and Grandkids went on unemployment.
 
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Thursday, January 23, 2014

Unemployment rate soon to drop below 6% as 1.4 million people lose benefits

The government is never interested in facts, it is only interested in truth… and especially truth that makes their policies and agendas look good.  Which is why America stands on the brink of having 1.4 million jobless workers no longer be recognized in the economy, and the Obama administration potentially claiming a false victory as the unemployment rates could drop below 6% for the first time in several years.


Read more on this article here....

Friday, September 6, 2013

Unemployment rate rises to 11.4% as nearly 91 million Americans out of work force

On Sept. 6, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued their latest job report numbers, with August’s totals missing expectations by 11000.  More importantly however, was the more than 500000 Americans who fell off the unemployment rolls, which increased the total number of people out of work to just under 91 million.

And with that increase of American workers no longer being counted as participating in the work force, the separation between manipulated U3 rates and the actual unemployment rate, widened to a difference of over 4%.


Read more on this article here...

Friday, October 5, 2012

Unemployment numbers the Chicago way: Obama administration skews last report before the election

Since the results of the first Presidential debate on Oct. 3 were a complete fiasco for Obama, many people in the beltway, and financial sectors, knew that something big would be dropped on the American people to try to save the election.  On Oct. 5, that news was published as the newly manipulated BLS report on job creation led to a drop below 8% unemployment for the first time since 2009, and not surprisingly, during the last reportable month before the election.


Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers - Jack Welch Tweet

But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009 - Zerohedge

The Labor force participation rate rises from 30 year lows to 63.5% to 63.6%



So what we see in this months report, which will assuredly be revised by a multiple of 5-10 next month, or during the final annual report, is a last ditch attempt to brainwash Americans before the election that Obama's economic policies are working, and that people are finding jobs (that no on can really make claim to), on paper vs. the real world.

It's not about truth in the world of politics, its about the perception of truth, and as former GE CEO pointed out, its the Chicago way.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Obama preparing unemployment rate for November elections

It's that time of the week again, where the B(l)S jobs report shows 99% negative data, but 1% positive in the baseline most Americans will see.  The unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, even though there were more jobs created by the mythical birth/data adjustment, and now the rate stands on the threashold where President Obama can soon use it to his advantage in the November elections.



Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009. Schrodinger is alive and well.

From the release:
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. - Zerohedge

So not only did the analyst estimates of jobs created fail by 50,000, the unemployment rate stated by the Obama administration dropped a percentage point lower than expected.

Once that rate falls below 8%, then the politics of spin will begin.  In reality, the true unemployment rate is over 16%, with a record number of people not even being counted as unemployed because they simply aren't recorded as receiving government benefits.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Unemployment rate drops to 8.3% on 1.2 million workers fall off benefit rolls

For those who wonder how today's BLS job numbers of 243K could be enough to make the unemployment rate fall to 8.3%, we must always look for the seconday fact, ie... the one that the media rarely mentions, and that is, the number of people out of work who fell off the benefit rolls.

Government reports are written to make politcians look good, not to let the public know the actual amount of people unemployed, so when today's jobs report sent jubulence to the markets, few had time initially to see why the rate fell to 8.3%.

It was because 1.2 million people were no longer being counted as looking for work because their unemployment benefits had dried up.

it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. - Zerohedge



Charts courtesy of Bloomberg

So... it must be Obama election time again as the administration gears up to dazzle you with non-brilliance, and try to baffle you with BS.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

CBO report forecasts unemployment rate at 10% in 2012

In what assuredly would be a devastating economic indicator for President Obama, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) came out with a report forecasting the unemployment rate for 2012.  While manipulated BLS reports in November and December dropped the rate down to 8.5%, the truth is those numbers reflect less people receiving unemployment benefits and don't take into account the hundreds of thousands who fell off the roles.

And the fact that the CBO predicted negative $2.5 trillion in net debt by 2011 back in 2011 is largely ignored. Anyway, here are some of the highlights.
  • 2012 Deficit: $1.1 trillion; 2013 Deficit: $0.6 - yes, we are cackling like mad too...
  • Unemployment to remain above 8% in 2012 and 2013; will be around 7% by end of 2015; to drop to 5.25% by end of 2022.
    • This forecast is utterly idiotic and is completely unattainable unless the US workforce drops to all time lows and the US economy generates 300,000 jobs a month for 10 years
  • Needless to say, CBO assumes the best of all worlds in this meaningless forecast
  • But here is the kicker: "Had that portion of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 that is attributable to neither the aging of the baby boomers nor the downturn in the business cycle (on the basis of the experience in previous downturns) not occurred, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011 would have been about 1¼ percentage points higher than the actual rate of 8.7 percent" translation: CBO just admitted that the BLS numbers are bogus and real unemployment is 10%. Thank you - CBO via Zerohedge


Never ask the government how many people are out of work, ask a bean counter, for they are the ones who are paying the benefits for those out of work.

Friday, December 2, 2011

New jobs numbers not what they seem as they actually lose traction despite the lower unemployment rate

This has been the week of the 4-sigma manipulation for the Obama administration regarding government reports.  No investor with half a brain cell ever relies upon them anymore, and the hoopla today from the jobs report is just another indicator that truth out of Washington is simply a Orwellian drama.

And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July then 261,200 in October [and finally 262,500 in November] . As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 262,500 263,700. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 15.8 million jobs in the next 61 60 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate." - Zerohedge

The primary reason for the drop in unemployment was tied to two factors... one, and increase in TEMP JOBS due to the holiday shopping season, and secondly, a MASSIVE drop in the number of people on the unemployment clain roles who dropped off and now arent counted on any record.