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Showing posts with label spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spread. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Growing spreads between London and Shanghai means that very soon China will take control over gold pricing

Two weeks ago, Deutsche Bank publicly admitted that they and several other banks have been manipulating the price of both gold and silver for several years now.  And yet despite these admissions, both London and the Comex have been smashing down the price of each to the point now where the markets can no longer even facilitate a break even cost for companies producing the metals.

“The analysis of FCF breakeven price suggests that 50% of the gold miners generate free cash flow below $1,150/oz gold with an average FCF breakeven gold price of US$1,135/oz for 2016E,” BMO said. “Excluding dividends, the FCF breakeven gold price for the miners declines to $1,070/oz in 2016E. 
Silver miners may be “less prepared,” however, after enduring a deeper correction in the price of silver relative to gold, BMO said. Three out of 11 companies report FCF breakeven costs for 2016 that are estimated below $15 an ounce, BMO said. - Kitco
As of Dec. 20, the current spot price for gold in London was $11.25, which according to the above study means that the manipulated 'fix' price at the Comex is now $10 below the average cost necessary for 50% of the miners just to break even.

However, as noted in an article published over the weekend here, spot prices out of Shanghai are at least $50 more than what is set in either London or New York, and premiums for metals are even higher than this when purchased in large quantities by investors, stackers, or speculators.

This dislocation in prices between Eastern and Western markets is now creating a nexus point where according to long-time bullion analyst Jim Sinclair, as well as by the CEO of Matterhorn Capital out of Switzerland, China is growing ever closer to being the primary market for determining gold and silver prices, and leaving London and New York with little metal to back their paper contracts.
For those distraught over the COMEX paper futures price of gold plunging towards $1,000/oz, Switzerland’s Egon von Greyerz has some information for you: 
I am not upset because I know one day, COMEX will default. The futures market will default. The banks will not be able to deliver the paper gold they have issued. One day people will come in and try to get their gold, and there won’t be any gold when they ask for it. How can you be nervous (holding gold)? The truth will eventually come out, and that truth will be very painful for all the paper holders of gold.” - Greg Hunter via Silver Doctors

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The difference between London paper price and Shanghai physical price now expanded to $32

As the dollar continues to stay above 101 on the index, the spot price of gold continues to get crushed in the Western paper markets.  In fact, ever since Nov. 9 when Donald Trump was declared to become the next President of the United States, gold has fallen over $200 despite increased demand in places like India, Russia, and Vietnam.

But starting back in April, London was no longer the only entity setting a daily price 'fix' for gold as the Shanghai Gold Exchange officially began its own price fix earlier this year to manage the trading of the precious metal during periods when both Europe and the U.S. were closed.

And for the rest of spring and well into summer, the spread between the two markets stayed relatively the same, with the London fix and the Shanghai fix only diverging by perhaps a dollar or two on any given day.  But over the past three weeks this has now changed as the spread between the Western paper market and the Eastern physical one has climbed to a massive $32 difference in the fix price.




Shanghai PM Gold Fix - Dec. 1, 2016


London AM Gold Fix - Dec. 1, 2016


As you can see from the price, the spread has now reached just under $32 per ounce difference.

If the spread continues to widen even further then it will open up two potentially lethal events for the LBMA and the COMEX.  First, it will cause miners who normally sell their gold production through these commodity exchanges to instead find it much more profitable to ship their metal to China and sell it on the SGE.  And secondly, the potential for a massive arbitrage will come into play where one or more big investors will buy up all the gold futures contracts and demand physical delivery at the lower paper price, which they will then sell their gold over in China and pocket the difference as profit.

For decades now the Western gold futures markets have been a vehicle in which central banks and the U.S. Treasury have manipulated gold prices in a scheme used to protect the dollar, especially during this era of massive money printing and zero percent interest rates.  But now that China has taken over as the world's largest physical gold market, more and more they are coming to set their own price for the metal, and it should not be too long before they officially wrest that authority away from both London and New York.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Gold price difference out of China now up to $5 more than in London or Comex

On Oct. 18 the spread in gold price between the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the London/Comex gold fix was a record $5 as the Eastern physical markets continue to ever so slowly pull away from the Western paper gold markets.

The SGE is the largest physical gold market in the world, and commenced declaration of its own gold price back in April of this year.  And over the course of 2016 they have intermittently increased the spread between themselves and the purely paper markets run out of London and New York.

Shanghai Gold Exchange fix times: 10:15pm est and 2:15am est 
London gold fix times: is at 5:30am est and 10am est 
Shanghai morning fix OCT 18 (10:15 pm est last night):  $1276.80 
NY ACCESS PRICE:   $1271.50 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME) 
Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15am est:  $1274.31 
NY ACCESS PRICE:   $1269.70 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME) 
Spread between each market at both fix times:  $5 difference - Silver Doctors
As this difference in price continues to expand, it will eventually create an price evaluation where gold miners will stop selling their products to the Comex or LBMA, and find it more affordable and profitable to ship their gold to Chinese markets..  Likewise, it will also eventually lead to an arbitrage where traders will buy all the gold up in both London and New York, and then sell it to Shanghai causing an asset flight from West to East.