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Showing posts with label monetary policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label monetary policy. Show all posts

Monday, February 20, 2017

Former central bank Chairman gives a mea culpa to Ron Paul and admits the Congressman was right about the Gold Standard

Ever since Alan Greenspan left his office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he has embarked on a near decade's long 'roadshow' to try to rebuild his reputation as a fiscal conservative.  And one of the biggest things he has been pushing for has been the belief that gold is money, and that a return to some form of a gold standard would solve many of the world's current financial problems.

This of course is the ironic dichotomy with Greenspan, since he was originally a staunch advocate of the Gold Standard up until he took over the reins of the world's largest central bank.  And it was through his Keynesian style monetary policies of low interest rates and bubble creation that not only led to the financial collapse of 2008, but paved the road for the next two Fed Chairmen to expand upon his policies to absurd degrees.

But now that the former Fed Chair is out of the establishment, he has become once again a crusader for gold as money.  And over the weekend he even admitted that former Congressman Ron Paul was correct all those years when they stood toe to toe during House testimonies, and when Paul pushed Greenspan mercilessly for why we weren't heading back towards a gold standard today.

Image result for ron paul gold standard
Finally, buried at the very end of the interview was perhaps the most interesting statement by Greenspan : the former Fed Chair's implicit admission that Ron Paul was right all along: 
Q. Against a background of ultra-low and negative interest rates, many reserve managers have been large buyers of gold. In your view, what role does gold play as a reserve asset? 
When I was Chair of the Federal Reserve I used to testify before US Congressman Ron Paul, who was a very strong advocate of gold. We had some interesting discussions. I told him that US monetary policy tried to follow signals that a gold standard would have created. That is sound monetary policy even with a fiat currency. In that regard, I told him that even if we had gone back to the gold standard, policy would not have changed all that much. - Zerohedge
For those who may not know, back in the 1960's Alan Greenspan became the architect of electronic banking, as he was also an excellent computer programmer as well as an extraordinary economist.  And in a blueprint discovered by analyst Bix Weir on the website of the St. Louis Fed called the Road to Roota, Greenspan's plans entailed using electronic banking and fiat currency to expand and then implode the monetary system in order to bring it back to a state where a return to the gold standard would be both necessary and viable.

Since China has already stated publicly their end goal is to return money and trade to a gold standard in the near future, what remains is the question of whether the U.S. is both willing and prepared for such a sea change.

And ironically for the first time in decades, the U.S. has a President who is himself a believer in gold.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

As expected, Trump victory drives gold price back over $1300 as global markets uncertain of future

As we at The Daily Economist wrote yesterday, the opportunity for short-term anti-establishment bets in gold, currencies, and the stock markets came to fruition when Donald Trump successfully beat the odds and won the White House early on Wednesday morning.

Starting with his taking of Florida in the early evening, and culminating with his surpassing of 270 electoral votes around 2:30am, global markets treated the Trump victory like a Brexit part two, and gold was definitely a benefactor by rising over 5% at one point.

Gold jumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday to its strongest in six weeks as investors snapped up safe havens with Republican Donald Trump winning the race for the White House over Democrat Hillary Clinton. 
It marked gold's biggest single-day gain since June 24 when it rose as much as 8 percent when Britain decided to leave the European Union. It closed up 4.8 percent that day. 
A Trump win, which many see could lead to economic and global uncertainty, may also push the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold off from raising interest rates next month, further burnishing gold's draw, analysts say. - CNBC
Despite the fact that Trump will not officially take office for another 72 days, his victory will reverberate around the world's markets for some time as the uncertainty of new fiscal and monetary policies that may or may not be beneficial to Wall Street will have a significant effect on gold going forward.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Perfect storm for gold is now in place as asset bubbles created by central banks are on the cusp of imploding

Central banks around the world no longer are tied to their original mandates of stemming inflation, and formulating monetary policies that aid in keeping unemployment at low levels.  Instead, their 'new' mission has been to prop up assets at all costs, even if this means buying them hand over fist in every market available.

Leading up to the 2008 Credit Crisis, central banks had used low interest rates to create artificial bubbles in housing, equities, and securities.  And when they burst in October of that year, their reactions were to simply double and triple down on these failed policies, and add in tens of trillions of dollars in money printing to ensure these types of assets not only rose to new highs, but would be protected from ever crashing again.

Ahhh... the folly of men.

Unfortunately for economies, the natural laws that govern the Invisible Hand of markets will always have the final say, just as nature is always more powerful than any technology humanity can create to try to stop its exponential power.  (See New Orleans and Katrina)  And despite the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan using every tool they could dream up, including outright buying of stocks, mortgage backed securities, sovereign bonds, and corporate bonds, they have been unable to stop the specter of deflation and stand on the threshold of seeing the mother of all bubble implosions about to take place.

Gold will likely soar to a record within five years as asset bubbles burst in everything from bonds to credit and equities, forcing investors to find a haven, according to Old Mutual Global Investors’ Diego Parrilla. 
The metal is at the start of a multi-year bull run with a “few thousand dollars of upside” in a world of “monetary policy without limits” where central banks print lots of money and low or negative interest rates prevail, said Parrilla, who joined the firm as managing director of commodities last month. He’s worked at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 
“As some of the excesses in other asset classes get unwound, gold will perform very strongly,” said 43-year-old Parrilla, who has almost 20 years experience in precious-metals markets. The “perfect storm scenario will mean that gold will perform best when other classes are doing worst.” - Bloomberg
We saw this month that neither the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, nor the Bank of Japan could come up with any new monetary policies that could sate the market's thirst for more, nor their demand for higher and greater yields.  Which means that unless these 'Masters of the Universe' are willing to initiate ultimate protocols, such as taking the banning of cash from the blackboard to the boardroom, the inevitable result will be a bursting of all these asset bubbles and an explosion for gold that will make its $1940 high in 2011 look like pocket change.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

As Japan prepares to dump helicopter money, Japanese consumers rush to buy gold to protect their wealth

Over the weekend, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took a trip to Japan to speak with Prime Minister Shnizo Abe and central bank head Haruhiko Kuroda about the next phase of monetary policy which appears to entail the printing and giving of money directly to the Japanese people.

Known in economics as 'helicopter money' after Ben Bernanke's speech where he promised to do anything possible to keep the economy going, the Bank of Japan has reached the point where they have little to lose than to expand their money supply to infinite levels and give people direct cash to try to stimulate a 30 year recession.


When we first heard this past Thursday that private blogger and Citadel employee Ben Bernanke was going to "secretly" meet with both the BOJ's Haruhiko Kuroda and Japan PM Abe, we warned readers that "something big was coming." 
As noted late last week, "Bernanke will be in Japan next week. It has been arranged for him to meet officials including Abe and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, according to a government official speaking on condition of anonymity. Bernanke is expected to discuss Brexit and the BOJ's negative interest rate policy with Abe and Kuroda, the official said." Reuters also added that "some market players speculate Kuroda might decide, in a surprise, to provide "helicopter money." 
We concluded as follows: 
So is it time? Is Bernanke about to unleash the next, and final, monetary policy evolutionary step, one which launches "helicopter money" in Japan, and if successful, brings it across the Pacific to the US? 
We don't know, but if anyone is still holding on to USDJPY shorts, now may be a good time to quietly close them out because if Reuters is right, and a "helicopter money" is about to be served for the first time in modern history, things are about to get very volatile, very fast. - Zerohedge
In response to this new insane monetary policy and the fact that saving in Japan is impossible under negative interest rates, the Japanese people are buying gold in droves, and realizing that the precious metal is the only way they will protect their wealth and save what little they have left before it becomes devalued into oblivion.
While in past decades, the natural instinct of Japanese savers when faced with financial uncertainty has been to rush into the "safety" of cash (after all why allocate funds to government bonds that yield almost, or less, than nothing) as we recently showed in Safes Sell Out In Japan and Demand For Big Bills Soars As Japan Stuffs Safes With 10,000-Yen Notes, now something has changed. That something is increasing loss of faith in Japan's currency. 
Take the case of Tetsushi Kudo, a 50-year-old office worker, who as Bloomberg writes, bought a one-ounce gold coin this month for the first time. With stocks slumping and zero percent interest on savings, he says it won’t be the last. 
"I want to buy gold every year as a birthday present for my daughter,” Kudo said at a store in Tokyo’s posh Ginza district where he made the 162,000 yen ($1,600) purchase. “She will thank me for the gift when she grows up because gold will have value wherever she goes.” 
Individual investors like Kudo drove a 60% jump in sales of the precious metal in June from May at Tanaka Holdings Co., the operator of Japan’s largest bullion retailer, as the yen’s rebound against the dollar made it more affordable. Why the surge into gold? Because far behind the glitzy facade of Abenomics, which is really just the BOJ intervening daily in the USDJPY via trust banks, and manipulating the Nikkei to give the impression that all is well, the people have checked out.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Gold has unlimited potential as central banks confused about which way to go with monetary policy

It is a given that gold is the counter-weight to fiat currencies as its price and value nearly always goes up when a nation's paper money goes down in value and purchasing power.  But what is now different, and what is suddenly being revealed is how gold is also a counter balance to central banks and monetary policy, and according to one Wall Street trader, the potential for higher gold prices is unlimited due the fact that the Fed, ECB, and BOJ are at an impasse on what to do to stave off financial calamity.

Starting in 2015, the Federal Reserve board of governors announced that there would be several rate hikes to the Fed funds rate over the next few years.  But each time they met to look over the data and seek to implement a hike, all they reported were excuses as to why they couldn't raise the cost of borrowing money.  And ever since June of this year when the Fed elected once again not to raise rates despite the fact that market sentiment was over 70% in the rate hike camp, the central bank has lost a great deal of credibility and this has been seen by the continuing rise of the gold price.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" this week, Tom Colvin said that gold will remain in a bull market that will only come to an end "when central banks take their hands out of the cookie jar." The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates in the foreseeable future, despite a blockbuster June employment report on Friday. 
"The year-to-date rally in gold has been nothing short of spectacular, benefiting from what we have seen as a 'confused Fed' or a Fed lacking action," the senior vice president of global institutional sales at Ambrosino Brothers explained. 
Gold prices have rallied 28 percent in 2016, hitting a two year high earlier this week. Even as the yellow metal has pulled back from those highs in the last two sessions, Colvin expects these dips to arise as buying opportunities for investors. 
"The market can take good news and bad news," Colvin told CNBC. However, "a confused Fed, saying one thing but doing another over and over invites buyers of gold to jump into the pool with both feet and they have." - CNBC
Validation of this price action was also be seen on Friday, when the BLS announcement a monster rise in job creation that knocked down the gold price at the start of the trading day, only to see that price not only recover its initial losses, but close out the day in the green.

Live New York Gold Chart [Kitco Inc.]

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

As the Fed jawbones recovery and normalizing interest rates, debt defaults at highest levels since December

Nearly all alternative media economists have gone public to state that it is both unlikely, and irrational for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates now, and in the near future.  And this despite the central bank’s recent jawboning on mainstream television of a potential rate hike as early as next month.
But the problem is that the Fed and other central banks have waited too long, and gone too far in their zero interest rate policies, and quantitative easing programs.  And with the odds of a rate hike shooting up since the middle of May, debt default levels, especially for credit default swaps on the 10 year Treasury, are at their highest levels since the Fed raised rates a quarter point back in December.
fed-dollar
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Monday, May 23, 2016

Loss of confidence in central bank policies seen as a major driver for gold prices to go higher

Last week, no less than four Federal Reserve regional Presidents went public in advocating that the U.S. central bank raise rates during their quarterly meeting in June.  Of course, every one cited a caveat that it should be done only if economic conditions warrant it, but seeing as the Fed, as well as the ECB, have spent more months jawboning policy changes than actually doing them, the market has come to the realization that central banks more and more are to be likened to the boy who cried wolf.

And this is one of the major reasons why gold prices have soared to more than 20% gains since the beginning of the year, and following the unexpected December rate hike by Janet Yellen.  And it is because of the combination of central banks not following through on their promises, and a growing lack of confidence in them, that is leading many investors and fund managers to advocate to their clients to buy gold for the first time since 2013.

I think we are in a new gold market actually. Investors are very concerned about financial risk and gold is being used as a safe heaven. Especially, investors are looking at central bank policies. We've seen these radical central bank policies that don't seem to be working and now with negative rates, the Fed not able to increase rates as aggressively as they'd like to, it's creating a lot of concerns in the financial system. - Joe Foster, Manager of the Lombard Odier World Gold Expertise Fund. - Morningstar
In addition to Joe Foster, several hedge fund managers like Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros have put their own money on the line and are taking large positions in gold because the state of the financial system is warranting it in spades.

This current Presidential election cycle is also revealing the lack of confidence in central banks to be able to create monetary policies that will rescue both the economy and the debt bomb that they and governments have created since the advent of ZIRP, NIRP, and QE over the past eight years.  And it is why the likes of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are joining in with economists like Jim Rickards to call for a return to a gold standard of some form, and removal of absolute power over currencies by the central banks.
The Fed was getting bashed from all sides. "It is unacceptable that the Federal Reserve has been hijacked by the very bankers it is in charge of regulating," Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders said in a New York speech in January. Economists who support Sanders, like Nobel prizewinner Joe Stiglitz, see the Fed's quantitative easing as a form of trickle-down economics that's exacerbated inequality. 
The proponents of gold or some other fixed monetary rule are more likely to be found in the Republican Party, and what they object to is the very idea of money creation by fiat, not just its distributional effect. Still, there's some overlap. Ted Cruz, in one of the early candidate debates last year, said the Fed "should get out of the business of trying to juice our economy and simply be focused on sound money and monetary stability, ideally tied to gold." 
Then there was Donald Trump. "We used to have a very, very solid country because it was based on a gold standard," he told WMUR television in New Hampshire in March last year. But he said it would be tough to bring it back because "we don't have the gold. Other places have the gold." - St Louis Post Dispatch
In the end however, the U.S. may end up being the follower and not the leader of the return to the gold standard, as economies like China and Russia are preparing for a return of gold backed money and trade through their massive accumulation of physical gold.  And at stake is the power and authority to control the next coming global financial system, and where that old axiom still rings true... as those who hold the gold, make the rules.

Friday, May 20, 2016

March saw global central banks dump dollars at a record clip

Since the middle of 2015, global central banks have been dumping Treasuries and other dollar reserves at record levels to accommodate a number of different needs within their own monetary policies.  For some like China, the dumping of dollars has helped the Far East economy protect their currency and ensure exports remain at the lowest costs achievable.  And for nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia, the selling of dollars has been a necessity to boost their budgets during the advent of low oil prices.
But perhaps the biggest reason behind the dumping of dollars en masse by central banks has been the rush out of the reserve currency, which is becoming less a requirement now that direct bi-lateral trade has returned to the global economy.
Dollar
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Friday, April 1, 2016

Gold finishes first quarter of 2016 with best beginning since 1974

When Americans were finally allowed to own gold again in 1974 following 41 years of legal restrictions in the aftermath of Executive Order 6102 by President Franklin Roosevelt, it spawned a massive wave of buying in the first quarter of eligibility that has not been seen in 42 years.

Until now.
Gold's 16.1% surge in Q1 2016 ias the best start to a year since 1974. Overall, this is the best quarter since Q3 1986 and is the best performing major commodity of the year. 
Gold rallied this year as it cemented its status as a store of value amid financial market turbulence and concern about the global economy, which led to speculation that the Federal Reserve would pause on tightening monetary policy in the U.S. Having seen BlackRock's gold ETF halted due to inability to meet physical demand, it appears pet rocks and barbarous relics are 'worth' something after all.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Q1 GDP estimates throw Yellen’s plan for future rate hikes in the crapper

On March 29, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen spoke at the Economic Club of New York to give a little more insight to the central bank’s future plans for monetary policy.  And in what was a mish-mash of contradictory points provided by the Fed Chair, where in one instance she praised the economy as being good while shortly after called for caution due to uncertainty in that same economy, it appears that data announced from the Atlanta Fed on Monday has invariably thrown all future rate hike possibilities in the crapper.
the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 “nowcast” to 1.0% or even lower,which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the “polar vortex” impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away.”
It was “even lower.”
Moments ago the Atlanta Fed which models concurrent GDP, slashed its Q1 GDP from 1.4% (and 1.9% last week) to a number not even we expected: a paltry 0.6%, which would match the “polar vortexed” GDP print from Q1 2015.
Should the number drop even more, will be the lowest since Q1 of 2014 when the US economy suffered its most recent contraction of nearly -1%. - Zerohedge
Read more on this article here...

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Gold responds favorably as Fed Chairman Janet Yellen shows central bank has no idea what to do for economy

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen spoke at the Economic Club of New York and left monetary markets without direction, and investors rushing into safe havens outside the dollar.  In fact, while the Fed Head spoke contradictory words that the economy is both strong, and also uncertain in nearly the same sentence, the dollar reacted by selling off against most currencies, and gold rose more than $20 by the close of trading.

Perhaps the telling point for Yellen was the fact that on Monday, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its Q1 GDP estimate to below 1%, showing that December's rate hike was a huge mistake in an environment of continuing deflationary recessions.

"the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 “nowcast” to 1.0% or even lower,which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the “polar vortex” impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away.” 
Moments ago the Atlanta Fed which models concurrent GDP, slashed its Q1 GDP from 1.4% (and 1.9% last week) to a number not even we expected: a paltry 0.6%, which would match the “polar vortexed” GDP print from Q1 2015
Should the number drop even more, will be the lowest since Q1 of 2014 when the US economy suffered its most recent contraction of nearly -1%. - Zerohedge

Monday, August 31, 2015

Bankster economist who called for an end to cash now calls for global QE4

It is incredibly funny when you realize that most market projections are determined by banks and economists who have a monetary interest in the outcome of their own analysis.  From the forecasting of quarterly earnings for individual stocks, to telling the Federal Reserve how they should perform monetary policy, the casino known as Wall Street is simply a segregated environment where 1%ers vie with other 1%ers to manipulate outcomes based on their own for or against betting patterns.
Thus it should come as no surprise that the once again fail Chief Economist from Citigroup is ratcheting up his rhetoric, and where at a meeting for the Council on Foreign Relations he suggested it is time for central banks around the world to rev up the helicopter and start a new round of Quantitative Easing to stave off the coming economic crash.

Read more on this article here...

Another mainstream publication calls for the banning of cash

We have talked about in the past a paper published by a Harvard professorwhich argued that a ban on cash would be beneficial to helping the central bank perform monetary policies that give them much more latitude in the economic and financial arenas.  Of course, this ‘educator’ failed to recognize that it is not the fault of money that was ever the issue, but rather that fallible bankers, who are more ideologues than economists, have no idea about what they are doing and that the real answer lies in getting rid of them, rather than restricting the freedoms of the people to own cash.
But sadly this growing trend in both the academic and financial circles appears to be increasing as last weekend the Financial Times suddenly got on the End Cash bandwagon, and is even referring to fiat physical money as a barbarous relic.

Read more on this article here...

Monday, May 18, 2015

German economists jump on the ‘end of cash’ bandwagon

They say that when something occurs a single time it is a coincidence. Then if it happens a second time it is a pattern.  But if the same event or philosophy occurs, or is promoted by numerous sources and from several different locations, then that thing has expanded fully into a trend.
The war against cash, and in particular, the call to end the use of cash, has now emerged into a full fledged trend, and one that appears to be propagated by the very banking system that was originally built to service the use of cash, money, and legal tender.  The question of course to ask is why would financial institutions, a university professor, and now, a think tank economist all call for an end of the use of physical cash?
The answer lies in a conclusion none in the financial system want to accept, with their response instead to seek a solution that would impose draconian restrictions on the freedoms of all people in their right to choose how they spend or save their money.
 
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