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Showing posts with label jobs report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobs report. Show all posts

Friday, August 5, 2016

Markets soar to new all-time highs as they realize the Fed will never raise rates on completely manipulated good news

The monthly job report came out for July today, and the massive higher than expected number is sending markets soaring to new all-time highs.  In fact, for the first time in 16 years the Nasdaq has equaled its previous all-time high and could close with a new record.

But underlying all of this is a fantastic dichotomy in fiscal and monetary policies that Wall Street has finally caught on to...  and that is, the government will continue to report bogus manipulated better than expected data, and the Fed will simply ignore it and keep going forward with zero interest rates.


This of course is the signal for speculation to now go all out in equities.
One week ago, the BEA admitted that it had "found a problem" when it comes to calculating GDP numbers. Specifically it blamed "residual seasonality" adjustments for giving historical GDP numbers a persistent optimistic bias. This came in the aftermath of last week's shocking Q2 GDP report which printed at 1.2%, less than half of Wall Street's consensus. 
Today, seasonality made another appearance, this time however in the much anticipated July number, which unlike the woeful Q2 GDP number, was the opposite, coming in far higher than expected. In fact it was higher than the top Wall Street estimate. 
As Mitsubishi UFJ strategist John Herrmann wrote in a note shortly after the report, the "jobs headline overstates" strength of payrolls. He adds that the unadjusted data show a “middling report” that’s “nowhere as strong as the headline" and adds that private payrolls unadjusted +85k in July vs seasonally adjusted +217k. 
We leave it up to readers to decide just why the government may want to represent what would otherwise have been a far weaker than expected report, into a blowout number, one which merely adds to the economic "recovery" narrative, which incidentally will come in very useful to Hillary's presidential campaign. 
Yet even assuming the market has no doubts about the seasonally adjusted headline number, as appears to be the case, the other problem that has emerged for the Fed is how to ignore this strong number. As Bank of Tokyo's Chris Rupkey writes, “Let’s see Yellen get out of this one and find something in the data to once again not raise rates in September.” (We assume he did not see the unadujsted numbers.) 
As he adds, slowing 2Q GDP growth of 1.2% took Sept. rate hike “off the table” and now “the million dollar question” is whether 255k payroll jobs in July, 292k in June put it back on.  As a reminder, Yellen speaks exactly in three weeks time at Jackson Hole on Aug. 26; “let’s see if she provides some guidance." But while rate hike odds may have spiked after today's report, it is almost certain that, as we said last night, the Fed will not dare to hike the rate in September and potentially unleash market turmoil in the most sensitive part of the presidential race. 
As for a December rate hike, there are 4 months until then, and much can happen: who knows, maybe the BLS will even undo the significant seasonal adjustment boost that send July jobs soaring. - Zerohedge


Just remember, there are no markets anymore, only interventions, and for investors the axiom that was created in 2010 is still applicable today...

Don't fight the Fed. 

Saturday, June 4, 2016

June Fed rate hike chances crushed as new jobs collapse and uncounted non-workers soar

Over the past few weeks we have spoken alot on the Fed’s use of public announcements by its cadre of regional Fed Presidents to try to sway markets into believing that the central bank was sure to hike interest rates in either June or July.  And of course, inside most of this rhetoric is the single key component that is normally ignored by the computer algorithms that make up 75% of all trades, and that being the concept of data dependency.
Well in June 3, data dependency just went bye bye.
May’s non-farm payroll report just came out a couple hours ago, and it sent a shock through the entire financial system.  That is because the report printed a jobs number of just 38,000 new hires, which is the lowest single month since the height of the Great Recession back in 2010.
Read more on this article here...

Friday, June 3, 2016

Gold jumps $30 while dollar drops 100 bps as jobs report kills any chance of June rate hike

So much for the Fed sending out President after President last month to jawbone the central bank assuredly raising interest rates this month.  That is because on June 3 the newest jobs report came out, and it was perhaps the biggest blow to the long-standing meme that the economy was in total recovery.

In fact, the economy only created 38,000 jobs, which is the lowest number since September of 2010, and the smallest print since the height of the Great Recession.  But perhaps what is most chilling in all of this is that the report noted that 548,000 Americans simply vanished from the labor force, meaning they not only are out of work, but are also no longer counted by the government.

The worst jobs data since September 2010 has thrown ice cold water on The Fed's decision-making process and thrown a spanner in the market's narrative that everything is awesome. June rate hike odds crashed to 2% and July rate-hike odds plunged from 48% to 36%. The reaction to this sudden revelation of reality is striking as stocks plunge, gold soars, the US Dollar dumps and bond yields spike lower... - Zerohedge
In the meantime gold popped up $30 from the release of the jobs numbers and the dollar collapsed more than 100 bps now that the expectation of a rate hike for June has gone through the floor.

Monday, November 9, 2015

Walmart greeters +378,000, student loan ridden Millennials 0

It’s that time of the month again when the Hopey and Changey economic recovery gets to spin the jobs numbers for more political points.  And with today’s massive blowout over what most analysts forecast for new jobs created on Nov. 6, the world is right once again, and there is nothing to worry about in the economy.
Well, perhaps not so fast.
When we take a look at October’s job numbers, which came in at a whopping +271,000, we see a scary dichotomy that is sure to make student loan ridden millennials cry in their sleep.  That is because not only did the majority of new jobs (378,000) go to workers in the age range of over 55, but workers in the current generation lost 35,000 jobs making it a zero sum game for those ever wanting to pay off their loans and one day even dream of buying a home.
Graphic courtesy of Zerohedge
Read more on this article here...

Monday, October 5, 2015

New jobs report shows U.S. hired more foreign ‘bartenders’

Another month, another deceptive jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  On Oct. 2, the government agency announced that for the month of September, only 142,000 jobs were created which was more than 60,000 below analyst estimates.  But what made this report quite intriguing was the fact that it was the first one reported after the Fed’s FOMC announcement not to raise interest rates, and seemingly justified the central bank’s decision not to increase the cost of cheap money to the economy.
Yet when you look more closely at the report, it solidifies what only a few have been willing to discuss about the so-called great recovery, and that is that the majority of jobs being filled are by foreign workers, and that most of them are minimum to low wage ‘bartender’ jobs in the service industry.''

Read more on this article here...

Friday, May 8, 2015

With China about to challenge London for gold price discovery, there has never been a better time to own Karatbars

One of the biggest obstacles in getting people to recognize the value and potential of gold is that both our currency, and our markets, have discounted the precious metal for the past 40 years.  And with the U.S. Comex and London fix ensuring that the spot paper price remains beaten down to protect their derivatives market, gold is seen as a random gamble in any retirement portfolio, or as a worthy investment.

However, gold has never changed its status as a monetary metal despite the fact that Western central banks have used great leverage to make people believe it is little more than a barbaric relic.  And in a move that is sure to change the entire metals playing field, and make gold the best growing asset in the world, China completed their testing of a new price discovery mechanism at the Shanghai Gold Exchange on May 6, and are preparing to challenge, re-price, and perhaps even take over the global means of price discovery within a very short amount of time... perhaps even by the end of the month.

China conducted trial runs for the planned launch of a yuan-denominated gold fix last month, three sources familiar with the matter said, in a sign the world's second-biggest bullion consumer was moving closer to creating a benchmark price.
The state-run Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), on whose international platform the fix will be launched, conducted the trial with major Chinese banks and a few foreign banks, the sources said this week…
China plans to launch a yuan gold fix this year through trading of a 1 kg contract on the SGE, Reuters reported in February.
"The launch of the fix is towards the end of the year ... Banks were invited in April to test the fixing process," said one of the sources directly involved in the process.
The SGE will act as the central counterparty, unlike the London fix where the bullion banks settle trades amongst themselves, the source said.
If the Chinese fix becomes a success, it could add to the pressure on the London benchmark, which is used worldwide by producers, refiners and central banks to price holdings and contracts, although the two could exist side-by-side. - Zerohedge
 
What this means for you as an investor is that the potential for Western manipulation of gold and silver could be settled and done with over the next few months.  China has painstakingly worked to accumulate as much physical gold as they possibly could over the past five years, and believe that Western central banks, including the Federal Reserve and ECB, have little left to counter the Shanghai Gold Exchange by arbitraging gold through the respective price differentials.
 
And if China wins out on wresting price discovery from the Comex and from London, they will instantly raise the price to between $3000 - 4000 overnight, and more than double what the current spot price is held at.
 
Gold will become the foundation of the next global monetary system, and the intention for the global currency reset is to tie all currencies back to gold, and away from the dollar which has been the
standard since its acceptance as the global reserve 70 years ago.  And when this happens, all dollar denominated assets like stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cd's will become nearly worthless, or devalue by a large percentage, and the only performing asset will be gold for those who have it.

This is why Karatbars is so vital.  Besides being a company that sells gold at affordable sizes and prices, it is also an affiliate business that allows you to bring others to invest in gold, and to make substantial earnings by becoming a business owner in the company.  Even if you can't afford to purchase a single ounce of gold at the current price of $1198, you can easily find two people, along with yourself, who can invest around $350 each in a business that is both international, and protected from U.S. banks and governments since you can choose to have your gold delivered at any time, or stored for free in any one of their three offshore vaults.



Look, the new Jobs Report proved that the only employment being found today is part-time, and at near minimum wage levels, and the only way to survive and even prosper is to find that niche business that doesn't require you to invest a lot of money to grow and succeed.  And if 2008 didn't show us how vulnerable the entire system is, imagine what the next collapse will look like after $30+ trillion was printed by the central banks, which has only made things exponentially worse.

You can learn more about Karatbars by signing up for a free account.  If you simply wish to purchase gold in 1, 2.5, and 5 gram sizes, select Customer when clicking the link below.  But if you wish to both grow a business that is international and can be run completely from the comforts of your home and computer, and build wealth in the most recognized form of money in the history of the world that will ensure you will be above the fray after the global currency reset, then select Affiliate and purchase one of four packages (recommended silver) that opens up your window to receive commissions from anyone you sign up who then purchases gold or their own package.

Check out this video to learn just 1 of the 7 ways you can earn money through Karatbars, and click on this link to become a customer or business owner. - https://www.karatbars.com/signup.php?s=argonath




Wednesday, September 10, 2014

It’s a temp job world, and you’re living in it

On Sept. 5 the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or known in the alternative economy as the Bureau of Lies and Slight of Hand, issued its August jobs report for the country.  But unlike the month of July which summarily blew away all forecasted predictions, the August numbers were ‘just a bit outside’ as the economy only created 142000 when mainstream analysts were predicting no less than 200000.

But the real crux of the report was just how many of these new jobs were part time, and relegated to low wage employment.  And to understand just how skewed the jobs paradigm is for the American people since the Credit Crisis of 2008, over 53 million workers are now considered temporary workers, or in 21st century vernacular, Freelancers.



Read more on this article here...

Friday, December 2, 2011

New jobs numbers not what they seem as they actually lose traction despite the lower unemployment rate

This has been the week of the 4-sigma manipulation for the Obama administration regarding government reports.  No investor with half a brain cell ever relies upon them anymore, and the hoopla today from the jobs report is just another indicator that truth out of Washington is simply a Orwellian drama.

And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July then 261,200 in October [and finally 262,500 in November] . As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 262,500 263,700. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. How realistic is it that the US economy can create 15.8 million jobs in the next 61 60 months? We leave that answer up to the US electorate." - Zerohedge

The primary reason for the drop in unemployment was tied to two factors... one, and increase in TEMP JOBS due to the holiday shopping season, and secondly, a MASSIVE drop in the number of people on the unemployment clain roles who dropped off and now arent counted on any record.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Today's job reports are meaingless as the US needs to create more than 250,000 per month to break even

Today's job report of 90000 new jobs created, and the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 9.0 were simply fake window dressing that even the markets did not accept as good news (Dow opened up -70 points).  In fact, the birth/death adjustment ended up being more than the actual net jobs created, which tells you the Labor Department had to scramble to even make the report positive.

However, the underlying issue still remains the 9% unemployed, the 16% TRULY unemployed, and the dire fact that the US would need to create 262,500 jobs per month through 2016 just to get back even with December of 2007.

"Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July [then 261,200 in October]. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200 262,500. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. - Zerohedge



And there appears to be no question today on the floor of the exchanges of how meaningless today's job report is.  But to the American people, it is a another month of hopium and delerium that will make for a very disappointing Christmas season.