The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Fed manipulation vs. economic stagflation: who will win the future over gold and stocks

Going back to at least 2008, if not further back into the 1990's and the Dot Com bubble, markets have no longer run on fundamentals and technicals, but rather on central bank and sovereign manipulations.  And all one has to do is look at the fact that despite corporate earnings declining for seven straight quarters, and most like an eighth here in 2017 Q1, the Dow has not only surpassed 20,000, but its acceleration to 21,000 was the fastest in history.

And now this breaking of market fundamentals by the central banks through their keeping interest rates down to near zero for 10+ years and infusing Wall Street with tens of trillions of dollars in credit has reached a crisis point, and a place where the Fed no longer has control over economic forces.  For the inflation they strove so hard to create in asset prices has now broken through into every facet of the economy, and has returned a monster from the that required extraordinary means to defeat.

Stagflation.

Image result for stagflation monster

In the late 1970's the economy reacted to the U.S. removing the monetary system from the Gold Standard and instituting a new Oil Standard (Petrodollar) by opening the door to massive inflation thanks in part to Henry Kissinger's agreement with OPEC that allowed for the price of oil to be raised.  And this then also allowed the U.S. monetary base to expand by that same amount and more to supply the world with dollars to be able to purchase energy.

This huge increase in the monetary base coupled with the economic slowdown of the middle to late 70's created the then unknown environment that would be labeled as Stagflation.  Stagflation of course is where you have slowing growth coupled with rising inflation.

To defeat this economic dragon, Federal Reserve President and later Chairman Paul Volker had to raise interest rates first from 9% in 1978, to its final top of around 20% in 1981.  And it was only from this that Stagflation was able to be crushed.

But unfortunately today the Fed has no possibility of doing a repeat of this since they and the U.S. government have pushed themselves into a corner by accumulating extraordinary debt.  In 1981 the national debt was around $500 billion, and the Fed's balance sheet was nary a blip on the radar.  However today the U.S. debt is now just under $20 trillion, and the Fed has debt based holdings of over $4.8 trillion making it impossible for them to raise interest rates of any substance since the interest alone on those obligations would bankrupt the country when they are rolled over at higher borrowing costs.

So what does this mean for the economy, for stock markets, for inflation projections, and perhaps the one asset we have yet to mention in this mirror world of 40 years ago?

When stagflation hit the economy beginning in the middle 1970's the one asset that excelled during that time was gold.  Gold went from $106.43 in 1973 (the year of the Petrodollar agreement) to over $850 at its peak in 1980.  This was a rise of 800% in just seven years.

1980
$594.90
29.61%
1979
$459.00
120.57%
1978
$208.10
29.17%
1977
$161.10
20.43%
1976
$133.77
-3.96%
1975
$139.29
-24.20%
1974
$183.77
72.59%
1973
$106.48
66.79%

Looking back in hindsight, Chairman Volker later lamented that the one thing he wished he done differently during the central bank's battle to fight stagflation was to manipulate the rising price in gold, which had acted as a barometer against the dollar, and was a much better safe haven than investors trusting in U.S. Treasuries.  And it was this lesson that Ben Bernanke, and now under Janet Yellen, that the Fed would not forego during their implementation of monetary policies that would inevitably lead us back into the straits we are in today.

Thus we are now at a crossroads since Stagflation has returned with a vengeance and the Fed has little if any ammunition to counter it.  And it is for this reason alone that the real asset winner going forward will be gold over stocks, and we may have seen this start last Wednesday when the Fed's latest rate hike resulted in not even a pothole that slowed down either inflation, or the strong rise in the gold price.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Even insurance companies are buying gold to protect their capital as bonds become negative

Insurance companies use the monies they acquire from policy holders to grow their capital to support needed claims, as well as expand their business.  For publicly traded insurance companies this is vitally necessary to help them comply with their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders, as well as to earn enough profits to give out dividends or be able to lower premiums for their customers.

A major investment tool that insurance companies have used for years to grow their capital has been the bond markets.  But with these markets residing in an environment of both zero and negative interest rates over the past decade, many are faced with having to find a new form of asset or security to ensure their capital is protected, and that some modicum of growth is created.

So in light of this, some insurers and re-insurers are turning to gold to supplement their investing.

How do you know when the world’s economic, financial and monetary systems are in trouble? 
Answer: When re-insurance companies, whose sole purpose is to insure other insurance companies, start to panic into gold and begin hoarding cash it’s probably a reliable signal that things aren’t going as well as our central bankers’ best laid plans imply. 
That’s exactly what’s happening right now: 
A real paradigm shift is taking place in the markets…  Even one of the world’s second largest re-insurers is now buying physical gold… They’re even adding physical cash… This is the insurance industry’s insurance company… They are the risk experts and they now are buying physical gold bullion and storing physical cash… The importance of this move is possibly the most significant flow of capital that you will see in your lifetime… - SHTF Plan
Insurance is a $1.2 trillion industry, and that does not include re-insurers or other complimentary businesses that function within this environment.  And if a critical mass of them decide to turn to gold to hedge against the loss of interest they formerly got from purchasing bonds, the gold markets would dry up in a flash, and the price would skyrocket far beyond all-time highs.

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Western debt based economics: It now takes $10 of debt to create $1 of GDP growth

When central banks embark on fiscally irresponsible monetary policies, they tend to create anomalies that lead to economic crashes, bubbles, and as we are seeing in places like Greece and Japan, eternal deflationary growth.
But the United States for the time being is different, and this is because they still remain the sole keeper of the global reserve currency.  And this means that they can print endless money without thought, at least until the consequences of ignoring reality comes to bear.
Following endless zero interest rates and four different quantitative easing programs, a number of anomalies have arisen that are becoming impossible to ignore, and even more difficult to counter.  The first is that they have created so much debt that it requires the creation of new credit simply to remain static within the current economy.  And secondly, that debt creation has completely wiped out the concept of capital, where a new report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that it now takes $10 of new debt just to create $1 of new GDP growth.
Read more on this article here...

Friday, May 27, 2016

Switzerland just weeks away from a vote to bring about the ultimate in state welfare

Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders loves to push nations like Sweden and Denmark as being the ideal models of socialist economies.  Of course, he refuses to acknowledge places like Venezuela, which are now in the final bloody days of their own Socialist experiment.
And while a modicum of safety net benefits are necessary for any society to protect those who either cannot work, or are in transition between jobs and other hardships, the question has always been how much a government can spend on such programs before they affect both economic growth, and fiscal policies.
The nation of Switzerland however, could potentially become the ultimate pendulum swing as they are now just a few weeks away from a referendum which would create a system that would provide every man, woman, and child free money, whether they are employed or not, or whether they actually need it or not.
Helicopter-Draghi
Read more on this article here...

Monday, May 16, 2016

U.S. economy growing itself right back into the Great Depression

When you watch the mainstream media, business news, or any national politicians, they inevitably use certain keywords over and over in an attempt to try to ‘frame’ the economy to their desired outcome.  For years we heard the word ‘recovery’ used by the Fed, President Obama, and CNBC to justify the central bank’s instituting of zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while at the same time Washington used this narrative to continue massive deficits to feed their insatiable spending.
But along with the term recovery, another over-used financial term is that of growth.  And since our entire economy is now based on debt and the interventions of central bank money infusions, an interesting dichotomy is occurring that finally shows exactly where this growth is taking us.
Right back to the Great Depression.
Read more on this article here...

Monday, March 28, 2016

Wonder why consumers have no money from lower oil prices? Thank Obamacare!

If you spend any time watching the business channels on cable you find that the litany of analysts they parade across the screen cite the false narrative that consumers (American people) will be the catalyst for economic recovery because they will have more money to spend thanks to lower oil prices that have occurred over the past 18 months.  But despite this fallacy that didn’t come to pass, and was validated yesterday in a 1.4% Q4 GDP revision, there is another reason why Americans have not been able to participate wholeheartedly in the economy, and that reason is Obamacare.
The increase in healthcare spending and the Obamacare tax was by far the number one spending item by consumers in 2015, and nearly double the second place item which was new vehicle purchases.
2015 consumer spending
Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

France becomes second nation in a week to call for a State of Economic Emergency

Late last week the President of Venezuela announced a 60 day State of Economic Emergency as their financial situation continued to deteriorate due to the decline in oil prices.  And now on Jan. 18, the European nation of France has joined in the festivities and called for their own State of Emergency.
French President Francois Hollande issued the economic decree in an attempt to circumvent the continuing downward spirals that are affecting jobs and overall production.  And while this economic emergency is not as restrictive as the one imposed in Venezuela, it recognizes the importance of the situation in France, where Hollande will seek to work with local businesses on how to stimulate growth.

Read more on this article here...

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Fed publishes drastic fall in GDP forecasts, setting the stage for less than 2% growth for 2015

Recovery!  The mantra of the Federal Reserve and mainstream pundits parroting the party line.  But it appears that like poll numbers given prior to Presidential elections, when all the votes are counted, what was forecast for months leading up to the end of a cycle was much different than the actual outcome.
For most of 2015 the Fed and big bank analysts predicted an annual GDP growth rate between 2.5 - 3%.  But a new report published on Jan. 4 by the Atlanta Fed shows that not only is GDP growth looking to be below 2% for last year, but it will be as much as six bps below the dreadful number that ended 2014.

Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Fed publishes drastic fall in GDP forecasts, setting the stage for less than 2% growth for 2015

Recovery!  The mantra of the Federal Reserve and mainstream pundits parroting the party line.  But it appears that like poll numbers given prior to Presidential elections, when all the votes are counted, what was forecast for months leading up to the end of a cycle was much different than the actual outcome.
For most of 2015 the Fed and big bank analysts predicted an annual GDP growth rate between 2.5 - 3%.  But a new report published on Jan. 4 by the Atlanta Fed shows that not only is GDP growth looking to be below 2% for last year, but it will be as much as six bps below the dreadful number that ended 2014.

Read more on this article here...

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Corporate borrowing and stock buybacks reach the point of diminishing returns

Over the past two years, corporations in the U.S. have been manipulating their EPS (Earnings per share) by focusing on the number of share’s side of the equation, rather than increasing sales and revenue.  And while the new normal on Wall Street has been to exceed analyst’s estimated earnings per share, more often than not they have failed in beating Wall Street’s quarterly forecasts for overall earnings.
However, like the Federal Reserve finally reaching their own point of diminishing returns, where it now takes approximately $14 in newly printed dollars to create $1 of real GDP, the consequences for corporations borrowing extensively to buy back their own stock has now reached the point where default, bankruptcy, or even worse, a corporate takeover is a real possibility for a growing number of companies.

Friday, October 30, 2015

The next reform Iceland is making is to give bank profits and proceeds to the people

First it was jailing the bankers who helped create the financial collapse in Iceland, and now their Ministry of Finance is planning on giving the people profits and proceeds from the banks in a new reform policy that could revolutionize the banking system.
Iceland has been the premier model for how the U.S. and Eurozone should have dealt with the banks and individuals who nearly brought down the global financial system seven years ago, and in less than a decade not only has the island nation paid off all its debt obligations to the IMF, but has emerged as the only economy that is growing on production rather than central bank intervention.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Xi Jinping’s economy beats Obama’s economy in helping the middle class

Politicians always like to use words like ‘middle class’ and ‘helping working families’ to win elections, and try to deceive voters on what their true agendas really are.  And while U.S. President Barack Obama has tried to take credit for how he saved the economy and brought America back from the brink of the 2008 credit crisis, the fact of the matter is he has destroyed the middle class, and has dropped prosperity levels for tens of millions of Americans down to levels not seen in 50 years.
But in an ironic turn of the coin, one formerly pure Communist country has done just the opposite, and on Oct. 14 a new report from Credit Suisse shows that the Far Eastern powerhouse now has more of their people moving into the Middle Class than the U.S. does.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Growth of first quarter 2014 came in a negative 1% of revisions

Back in May, the initial first quarter GDP numbers were announced, with economic growth climbing a dismal .1%, and far below analyst expectations of 2.5 to 3%.  However, like most government models, the revised outcome would be much worse than the original numbers indicated.

On May 29, the revised first quarter GDP was publicized, and the results were a negative growth in the economy for the first time since 2011. In fact, according to all factors involved, if Obamacare premiums were not counted into the GDP models, then America would have experienced a negative 2% GDP in the first part of 2014.


Read more on this article here...

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Central Banks: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result

Since the inception of central bank controls over the currency of nations, the primary tool used to attempt to create economic growth has been to expand the money supply.  This primary economic theory is known as Keynesianism, and is based on the belief that growth can be created and expanded through central bank and government intervention to artifically create higher GDP.

However, the truth bears out that this has been a failed policy in the long run, and eventually, every fiat currency devalues to the point where the currency collapses, or an economy collapses due to failed confidence in the system.  And yet, even for faux expert economists like Paul Krugman, facts are not powerful enough to dissuade men from failed beliefs and policies, and the result is an economic system that does the same thing over and over, expecting a different result, and bleating for more money infusion when their policies accomplish little.

A new graph shows how detrimental Keynesian theory and central bank money expansion is to creating growth in an economy, and makes the argument that current government polices are being done either to purposefully crash the system, or are run by men and women with mental disasbilities.


This chart proves beyond any discussion that more equals less in relation to money infusion and economic growth.  When a currency devalues from too much in the system, prices may rise, but actual growth will stymie and eventually retrace.  However, the money printers will also be left holding the bag, having to print more and more money to pay interest and debt, since economic growth revenues will shrink accordingly.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Government promises: food stamp growth over job growth

The US food stamp program is based on criteria that gives money towards individuals and families that live below certain economic scales.  This includes those who might even have a job(s).

However, the crux is that growth in food stamp recipients is expected to rise through 2014 according to a new CBO projection, and this shows evidence that the government doesn't really believe there will be any new substantial job growth for Americans over the next two years.


Chart courtesy of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that 45 million people in 2011 received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, a 70% increase from 2007. It  said the number of people receiving the benefits, commonly known as food stamps, would continue growing until 2014.
Spending for the program, not including administrative costs, rose to $72 billion in 2011, up from $30 billion four years earlier. The CBO projected that one in seven U.S. residents received food stamps last year.

In a report, the CBO said roughly two-thirds of jump in spending was tied to an increase in the number of people participating in the program, which provides access to food for the poor, elderly, and disabled. It said another 20% “of the growth in spending can be attributed to temporarily higher benefit amounts enacted in the” 2009 stimulus law. - blog.wsj.com

Yet, the SNAP food stamp program is broken, as seen here where Atlanta prison inmates bragged about how much food they accumulated behind bars using a EBT card they lawfully got from government agencies.



And we wonder why the Budget deficit is over $150 billion per month, and showing no signs of slowing.