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Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Barron's Magazine shows why mainstream economists are fail forecasters

On Dec. 13 Barron's Magazine published their 2016 economic forecasts, and from their crystal ball they cited the same analysts who made market predictions for the publication last year.  However, if you go back to Barron's 2015 forecasts you will find a very interesting dichotomy...

That is, nearly all predictions made by these mainstream economists were wrong.


On average, most of the analysts put the S&P 500 at 2200 for 2015, off by a 66 points at the record high of the market, and over 190 from its close on Friday.

In addition, these analysts GDP growth estimates were between 2.8% and 3.2%, but growth for 2015 going into the final weeks of the year is a paltry 2.1%,

And none of them saw the drop in energy prices leading into 2015.

So again one year later, let's take a look at these same forecaster's and how off they should be seeing as their primary job is to always forecast bullish sentiment rather to keep the stock markets going higher.


S&P 500 ranges from 2100 to a whopping 2500, but perhaps what is most interesting is the decline in their predictions for GDP growth.  1.9% - 3.25%.

Note:  Nearly all alternative media economists like Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente, Rob Kirby and Jim Willie are far below these fairy tale predictions for the coming year.  So enjoy a bit of pragmatism vs. Goldilocks optimism.


Monday, December 7, 2015

Fed trapped on rate hike decision as U.S. is in recession no matter how you spin the numbers

On Dec. 5, two interesting data points that are indicating that the U.S. is now in a recession has the Federal Reserve trapped by their own rhetoric and deceptions.  First, exports by U.S. companies dropped to a three year low as they fell ‘unexpectedly’ due to a stronger dollar and less consumerism from country’s already in their own economic downturns.  In addition, a new forecast by J.P. Morgan Chase put recession at a 76% probability, despite the so-called low unemployment numbers and near record stock market values.
Thus for the central bank, to raise rates now pushes an economy already in recession into much greater straits as there is no current indication that we have any asset inflation of note, and a rate raise would be a meaningless gesture since very little of the Fed’s trillions in Quantitative Easing (QE) ever went towards growth and real economic recovery.

Read more on this article here...

Monday, November 9, 2015

Walmart greeters +378,000, student loan ridden Millennials 0

It’s that time of the month again when the Hopey and Changey economic recovery gets to spin the jobs numbers for more political points.  And with today’s massive blowout over what most analysts forecast for new jobs created on Nov. 6, the world is right once again, and there is nothing to worry about in the economy.
Well, perhaps not so fast.
When we take a look at October’s job numbers, which came in at a whopping +271,000, we see a scary dichotomy that is sure to make student loan ridden millennials cry in their sleep.  That is because not only did the majority of new jobs (378,000) go to workers in the age range of over 55, but workers in the current generation lost 35,000 jobs making it a zero sum game for those ever wanting to pay off their loans and one day even dream of buying a home.
Graphic courtesy of Zerohedge
Read more on this article here...

Thursday, October 8, 2015

U.S. trade deficit validates the Fed can’t and won’t raise rates

Has anyone noticed that only Wall Street talking heads and those trying to sucker you into the stock market are still using the world recovery after the Fed chose not to raise rates in September?  That is because an economy that has been artificially driven by tens of trillions of dollars in printed money since 2008 has never built a true foundation for recovery out of the Great Recession seven years later.  And following the atrocious jobs report that came out last Friday, new data on the increasing trade deficit has put America into a bind where they are far from being prepared when the next crash occurs.
America’s exports for August came in at the worst in over three years, and validate slowdowns which should show themselves very soon in Q3 corporate earnings.

Read more on this article here...

Monday, September 28, 2015

Okun’s Razor: How can the Fed ever raise rates with real unemployment over 12%

There is one sure thing about central banks and government agencies… neither one will ever do the right thing.  And when the propaganda we have been getting for more than a decade from both the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suddenly was shattered 10 days ago when Janet Yellen chose not to raise interest rates, the reality of believing in false models and manipulated data revealed itself like a Black Swan.
Which brings us to an economic model known as Okun’s Law, which says that for every one point increase in the cyclical unemployment rate, two percentage points of negative growth in real GDP are experienced.

Read more on this article here...

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Retail sales in U.S. fall back to recession levels

The U.S. is no longer a manufacturing economy, and is instead a consumer based one where over 70% of the annual GDP is tied to consumer and government spending.  So when this single component drops by even a small amount quarter to quarter or year to year, it creates a huge impact on the overall growth for America.
Which is why new data from Johnson-Redbook shows that consumer spending growth has fallen to levels not seen since the Great Recession (2009), and forecasts for the upcoming holiday season are expected to be the weakest in five years.

Read more on this article here...

Monday, August 31, 2015

Global trade study validates the recessionary decline in Baltic Dry Index

One of the most important, but usually least talked about indicators that denotes the strength of the economy is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI).  This is a measurement that tracks shipping costs and quantities and is a strong signal for whether trade and exports are rising, or in decline.
And a new study out on Aug. 28 by the World Trade Monitor has now validated the recessionary numbers of the BDI, and shows trade within the global economy is now down to levels not seen since the Great Recession period of 2009.

Read more on this article here...

Sunday, June 7, 2015

The job recovery lie and why you need to build your own business with Karatbars

Two weeks ago, the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ended all debate on whether the economic numbers they provide the markets and American are manipulated to ensure a positive outlook for the State and for Wall Street.

On May 23, the BLS announced they were doubling the fake 'seasonal adjustment' variable to try to improve America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because the current model's were showing the economy in or on the precipice of recession.  However, since the 1980's the BLS has changed their models numerous times for political expediency, and if they used the same models in which Ronald Reagan used to begin his policies of recovery using interest rate hikes and lower taxes, our economy today would be well into a recession, and the unemployment rate would be reported as 23%.



What is important in all of this is to realize that what the media and the government are telling us is a lie and a sham, and all one has to do is look at their own situation, or that of their local community, to see the truth.  Look on many street corners and see how many retailers are closing down, or already boarded up.  Look at how many real jobs are available online, or in your newspaper, and how many times you or someone else may have applied for a job but never heard back from the employer?

The bottom line is that after the banking and credit crisis of 2008, and the subsequent Great Recession that we have never truly gotten out of, the future of work has changed to what many analysts call, the New Normal.  The New Normal is a combination of lower paying service jobs, more part-time jobs thanks to Obamacare, and a new dichotomy where foreign workers are being hired at a much greater rate, over 3 to 1, than American citizens.

The MSM is cackling about the 280,000 new jobs, but you won’t hear them mentioning that the number of unemployed people went up by 125,000 as 208,000 people the BLS classified as not in the labor force last month decided they were in the labor force this month. What a crock. At least 20 million of the 93 million classified as not in the labor force can or will work, therefore they are unemployed.

One month does not make a recovery. Let’s see what the YTD numbers show:
  • Since January, 594,000 more Americans are employed, an average of 149k per month. Considering the working age population has gone up by 732,000 since January, why is anyone crowing?
  • The BLS drones actually expect you to believe the unemployment rate has fallen from 5.7% in January to 5.5% today, because 442,000 Americans decided to voluntarily exit the labor force. That’s a hoot.
The really good stuff is buried in Table A-9 of the BLS data dump. See for yourself:
 
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

So what is the answer?  The answer lies in creating your own future and your own business that does not rely upon the old models of brick and mortar enterprises, but in using the power of the internet to build a truly global company that is not only protected from fluctuations in the economy, but also not tied directly to the dying dollar.  It is like the question over which investment to buy... stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or annuities, and yet since these are all dollar denominated, if the currency collapses, then no paper asset tied to the dollar is worth anything.

But what if you could find a business that is not denominated in dollars or other currencies that are in trouble around the world, but in the world's oldest form of money that is soon to become the reserve currency once again.  And of even bigger importance, centralized outside the U.S. and tied to the World Trade Organization (WTO) that protects your business as if it were a multi-national company?

The answer lies in Karatbars.  A business model that not only allows you and anyone you contact to purchase gold in affordable increments, but in Karatbars you can also earn money and commissions by simply recruiting others to purchase gold from the company.



Buying gold through Karatbars is one of the easiest things on the net.  In fact, the business model of Karatbars is to sell gold in affordable quantities, such as 1, 2.5, and 5 gram increments, and allow customers to get into the metal without having to shell out $1200+ for a single ounce coin.

And as added perks to signing up with Karatbars, as a customer or affiliate, you can have the power to move your money into a free e-wallet that functions just like an offshore bank account, and is outside the authority of the banking system.  From there, you can take your fiat currency in any denomination... dollars, euros, yen, etc... and purchase physical gold which can either be delivered directly to you, or stored for free at one of Karatbar's vaults.

Additionally, any gold that you buy can easily be sold back to Karatbards, or any metals dealer, and if with Karatbars it is then exchanged for currency that is uploaded to you through a pre-loaded debit Mastercard which is connected directly to your e-wallet.  And as we know, MasterCard is recognized in nearly every country around the world, and usable in any currency that accepts it.

But perhaps the best feature with Karatbars is their affiliate program, where you can earn money off commissions from getting others to sign up and become a customer or affiliate.  Not only do you receive commissions from their purchasing of physical gold, but you also earn commissions from anyone who buys a commission package, with that money going directly into your debit MasterCard when you have enough units to cycle.

Imagine the ability to earn the money in which to buy your gold savings simply by purchasing a commission affiliate package one time, and then getting others to sign up and do the same thing.

How many businesses or entrepreneurs can build an infinite business with spending less than $400 of their own money?  And there is never a mandatory requirement to buy beyond what you desire, on your own schedule.  And there is nothing to lose, because you're using money (paper dollars) to buy gold (physical money) and in the end you don't lose a thing.

How to make money in both the Dual and Uni-level systems of Karatbars




How to make a six figure income using Karatbars in just 7 weeks.



The global financial system, along with dozens of respected economists, are telling us that now is the time for the end of our current form of money, and the beginning of the transition into a new monetary system that is expected to be backed by gold.  And with banks, governments, and even Harvard professors mandating that central banks have no choice but to eliminate cash from usage by the people to stave off collapse, will you wait until it is too late to make a decision on how you will protect your wealth, and be able to function within the coming new monetary system?

To learn more about Karatbars you can contact the Finance Examiner at [email protected], or create your own account free account with Karatbars as either a customer, or an affiliate (business builder), by clicking the link below, and filling out the one page document.


https://www.karatbars.com/signup.php?s=argonath

Friday, May 29, 2015

Revisions to Q1 GDP show U.S. in negative growth as number falls to -.7%

When the initial GDP growth numbers came out at the end of April, the U.S. had achieved a barely positive result of just .2% for the first quarter of 2015.  But on May 29, the final revisions were announced and the market’s worst nightmare unfolded as revised GDP for Q1 was actually negative, and fell to -.7%.
Two consecutive quarters of negative growth are the determining factor for a recession, and with corporate revenues falling, and declines in consumer spending being the catalysts for the revised growth numbers, the probability that the U.S. is already in a slump is extremely likely, considering that the largest spending component over the past six months has been in the arena of healthcare premiums.
 
Read more on this article here...

Friday, May 8, 2015

Japan becomes first nation to register a national debt in the quadrillions

On May 8, Japan’s Ministry of Finance provided an update and breakdown of the country’s national debt through the end of March 2015.  And thanks to the accelerated rate in which the current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has printed yen through quantitative easing, that debt has now reached an all-time high and the first in the world to cross over a quadrillion.



Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

U.S. National Debt crosses $18 trillion with 70% coming from Obama’s tenure

While it took longer than expected, the U.S. National Debt has now officially exceeded $18 trillion, and is 107% of the total amount of GDP created in the economy for 2013.  This number also represents a watershed moment where President Barack Obama has been the instigator of almost more debt himself than all other Presidents combined, with his ownership ringing in at a whopping 70% increase since he took office in 2009.


Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Congressional Budget Office drops 2014 GDP estimates

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is fairly well known as being a completely neutral arbiter of monetary research for the government and overall economy.  Yet when the CBO came out in January to announce that the 2014 GDP would be as high as 3.1%, that neutrality was quickly brought into question and many began to wonder if they were becoming a new office of propaganda for the Obama administration.

Well, it only took about six months before reality showed up and on Aug. 27, the CBO changed course and published a new GDP estimate that is just a little different than what they projected back in January.  In fact, the new projection is more than 50% lower than previously estimated.




Read more on this article here...

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Britain joins Italy in adding revenues from hookers and drugs to increase their GDP

Yesterday, the United States came out with their revised GDP numbers, and the world discovered that the largest economy in the world had a negative growth rate for the first quarter of 2014.  In fact, the actual number was so bad that it was nearly 4% worse than the lowest projected growth prediction made by analysts for this reporting period.

So if the United States is now in negative growth, and for all intents and purposes in a recession, how do GDP numbers look for Europe, which is intrinsically tied to America in the global economic system?
How about desperate enough to project and add revenues from prostitutes and drug sales to expand their declining levels of production?
In a fantastic and Bizzaro World announcement, Britain intends to add projected numbers from the intangible sale of one’s body (prostitution), along with the sale of illegal narcotics to the overall ‘consumer spending’ portion of their GDP model, and align themselves with Italy who just last week, did the very same thing.

Read more on this article here...

Growth of first quarter 2014 came in a negative 1% of revisions

Back in May, the initial first quarter GDP numbers were announced, with economic growth climbing a dismal .1%, and far below analyst expectations of 2.5 to 3%.  However, like most government models, the revised outcome would be much worse than the original numbers indicated.

On May 29, the revised first quarter GDP was publicized, and the results were a negative growth in the economy for the first time since 2011. In fact, according to all factors involved, if Obamacare premiums were not counted into the GDP models, then America would have experienced a negative 2% GDP in the first part of 2014.


Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

President Obama wants to raise taxes to over 19% of entire GDP

It doesn’t matter which political party is in power, for the ability to finance their careers in office by stealing from the citizens will always be a massive temptation, especially when they find themselves short on funds due to their own corruption.  President Bush Sr. did this, President Clinton did it, and of course, the self-proclaimed Marxist Obama is doing it.
But as the budget deficit continues to grow astronomically, and the national debt climbs to levels more than 110% of our annual output, the Obama doctrine of wealth confiscation may be taking an even greater turn.  In a recent budget proposal to Congress the President offered a new baseline where he would seek to increase taxes by more than 1.6%, and equate government revenues from the people to over 19% of America’s total Gross Domestic Products (GDP).
 
Read more on this article here...

Friday, March 14, 2014

$100 Trillion: World floats on a sea of debt

On March 9, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) released its quarterly report and found that for the first time ever, global debt has reached $100 trillion, with 40% of that debt coming in just the past five years.
Total global debt has exploded by 40% in just 6 short years from  2007 to 2013, from “only” $70 trillion to over $100 trillion as of mid-2013, according to the BIS’ just-released quarterly review.



Read more on this article here...

Friday, November 15, 2013

It’s official: Quantitative Easing is a failure

In late 2008, and a little ways past the start of the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve decided to introduce a new form of money printing known as Quantitative Easing.  In this new scheme to increase liquidity and attempt to stimulate the economy, the Fed began buying toxic assets from banks , while at the same time, allowing financial institutions to borrow money at near zero interest.  This combination was expected to ease the consequences of the 2007-2008 credit crisis, and to allow for banks to begin capital investments to both corporations and small businesses.

However, in the four years that this program has been operational, and with the central bank trying four different QE models, the results of their efforts are in, and their effects on the economy have proven to be an utter failure.



Read more of this article here...

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Eurozone joins President Obama in changing model for GDP reporting

Back in April of this year, the Obama administration instituted a change in how GDP is measured, increasing the number reported by more than 3%.  This occurred after the economy had retracted for the prior 2 quarters, and at a time when the national debt was climbing to over 105% of annual GDP.
So as not to be outdone, it appears that the Eurozone has caught on to this idea of manipulating their own GDP numbers in an attempt to make state economies look much better than the vast recession most of the Eurozone is experiencing.
 
 
Read more on this article here....

Friday, August 2, 2013

How to become wealthier at the press of a button

Like prior Presidential administrations, growing pressure on Barack Obama forced the Commander in Chief to change the data modeling of how GDP was determined, and to make it look like the economy was improving well above its actual levels.  In fact, the data stream that was changed in the GDP model was...

How much money you (American people) make as income!

Because of these new changes to the GDP formula, and not the actual real jobs and production data, America suddenly became $300 billion richer, and accordingly, the stock markets responded by reaching new all-time highs.



We are delighted to advise Americans everywhere that you are all now making some $300 billion more than you were before the 8:30 AM revision. At least that's what the Bureau of Economic Analysis says: according to the quarterly revision, the revized annualized Disposable Personal Income is really some $300 billion higher compared to the pre-revision number. You are all richer!

What's that? You don't feel a dollar richer compared to this morning? That's irrelevant: everyone is now making about 2.4% more. A revised number in an Excel spreadsheet on a government computer said so, so it must be true. - Zerohedge

America!  Time to go out and feel richer even if you aren't actually richer.  Your government has printed you more income, out of thin air!

As a reality check however, the REAL reason the government made these formula changes was so that THEY could borrow more money, and artificially lower the debt to GDP ratio that was nearing an all-time record of 110%.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

U.S. now just $145 billion away from crossing a national debt of $16 trillion

The old adage of spending like a drunken sailor has morphed into an even greater cliche where the U.S. is now spending their future generations inheritance.  Even as investment banks and analysts across the board lower this years GDP expectations, the Federal government is increasing their dedicit spending, and is less than $145 billion dollars from crossing the $16 trillion dollar rubicon.

*Note the second chart, where the debt has crossed over the annual GDP.  This hasn't occurred in America since World War II.





Charts courtesy of Zerohedge