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Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gdp. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Gold price should be well over $20,000 per ounce today if held to historical relation of gold to global GDP

Analysts have looked at several different measures as to why the current gold price is only around $1200 per ounce, especially as global money supplies have skyrocketed since the 1980's.  And even here at The Daily Economist we have published numerous articles pointing out the willful manipulation of gold by governments, central banks, and the markets that act as the platform for this manipulation.

But looking at gold from both a fundamental and technical perspective, its significance in supporting economic growth through the backstopping of currencies cannot be denied... and why the move in 1971 by President Richard Nixon to remove that gold backstop from the dollar reserve currency was a mistake that was paralleled by the previous controller of the global reserve (Britain) back in the 1931.


Graphic courtesy of SRS Rocco Report

The most powerful banker in the early part of the 20th century stated that "Gold is money, everything else is credit."  And it is this difference that determines whether economic growth is real, or simply an artificial creation that lasts until the fuel of debt (credit) runs out.

When stock markets crashed at the end of the 1920's, their boom had been fueled by cheap money, and borrowing on margin.  And it is interesting to note that these same markets did not return to their 1929 all-time highs until the 1950's, which was about 6-7 years after the world returned to a proxy form of a gold standard following the conference at Bretton Woods.  And the markets then went on to steadily rise until the late 1960's, when the U.S. decided to artificially expand the money supply to fund the war in Vietnam.

So why are these relations important?  Because there is still one relation we have not mentioned here that involves gold when it was historically part of the world's money system.  And that relation is Gold Supply/Value to GDP.

As we can see, the value of world monetary gold stocks of $11 billion was a third (33%) of the $32 billion of global GDP.  So, for each dollar of monetary gold, the world economies produced three times the GDP. 
Now, let’s look at the situation today.  According to the World Bank, global GDP fell to $73,892 billion ($73.9 trillion) in 2015.  As I mentioned in a previous article, this was down 5.7% from $78.4 trillion in 2014:
What a difference in 86 years… aye?  Today, the value of world monetary gold stocks is only 1.7% ($1.28 trillion) compared to global GDP of $73.9 trillion.  I calculated the value of present monetary gold stocks by multiplying the current 33,250 metric tons of official gold holdings by $1,200 an ounce.  Of course, we don’t know the TRUE official gold holdings figure, but this at least provides us a guideline. - SRS Rocco Report
In 1929 the dollar price of gold was $20.42, and the total value of above ground gold was approximately $11 billion.  This meant that the gold supply supported global GDP at a rate of 3:1.

However 86 years later, with the gold price being approximately $1200 and where there is a much greater supply of the metal having been mined and owned by governments and central banks, the ratio of GDP to the gold value is now a whopping 57.59 (close to 60) :1... or nearly 20 times what it was in 1931 when gold was removed from the reserve currency by the British.

Thus taking this historic relation to today, it would mean the price of gold to support a $73 trillion global GDP should be nearly 20 times what it is, or at least $20,000 per ounce.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Barack Obama went to Washington and all the American people got was $20 trillion in debt

When Barack Obama took office in January of 2009, the National Debt sat at $10.62 trillion dollars, where much of it is directly attributed to his predecessor George W. Bush, who practically doubled the debt from 2001-08 through multiple wars engaged upon in Afghanistan and Iraq.

But as we come to the end of Obama's eight years in office we are now entering a new era of debt creation, and one where little at all was done to try to stem both the flow of borrowing, and the winding down of Washington's eternal wars.  And as the National Debt crosses over $19.5 trillion on Sept. 1 of this year, it is estimated that the nation will breach the $20 trillion mark by the time the President ends his White House tenure in January of next year.

Image result for u.s. national debt explosion under obama
Earlier this week, the US national debt hit $19.5 trillion, for the first time ever. Since January 2016, it has increased by $500 billion, according to the US Treasury. 
US Federal Debt to Rocket to $28.2 Trillion Over Next Decade In 2009 when Barack Obama became president the debt was $10.63 billion. Currently, the debt ceiling has been suspended until mid-March which means the debt will rise further. "The total national debt when Obama leaves office in January is expected to approach $20 trillion by then," an article on Washington Examiner read. - Sputnik News
Unfortunately for the U.S. as well, the economy has declined overall at the same time debt has skyrocketed over the past eight years.  In fact, Barack Obama will become the first President in history never to have a single year in office see an annual GDP growth rate over 3%.
Barack Obama remains solidly on track to be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the economy grew by at least 3 percent.  Every other president in American history, even the really bad ones, had at least one year when U.S. GDP grew by at least 3 percent.  But this has not happened under Obama even though he has had two terms in the White House. 
The following are the yearly GDP growth numbers under Obama.  They come directly from the official website of the World Bank… 
2009: -2.8 percent2010: 2.5 percent2011: 1.6 percent2012: 2.2 percent2013: 1.5 percent2014: 2.4 percent2015: 2.4 percent 
Does that look like a “recovery” to you? - Economic Collapse Blog
Image result for u.s. debt to gdp 2009 - 2016

The 1990's became known historically for Japan as the Lost Decade, and they have never recovered their economic might that turned them into the second largest economy in the world during the 1980's.  And unless something major changes for the next Presidential administration here in the U.S., this current ten year period for America will become its own lost decade, and signal the end of what was once the greatest economy the world had ever seen.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Gold fills the gap and has now moved up to its best price in three weeks

Over the past two weeks, the gold price had fluctuated between $1300 and $1330 as the post-Brexit rally appeared to stall a bit from its move towards $1400 per ounce.  But as we noted here in a previous post, the lull in gold moving higher appeared to be due to the markets waiting for buyers to fill the gap, and sellers to finish taking some profits.

Since the end of last week, gold has moved back up over $1350 and is on its way towards crossing the two year high of $1374 that it achieved within the past two months.  And if it can sustain that price, there is little resistance between here and around $1420.

Gold traded at a three-week high in London Tuesday on the back of a weaker dollar and uncertain timing for a rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. 
Spot gold traded up 0.40 per cent at $US1.358.78 per metric ton in midmorning European trade, its highest point since July 11. 
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, was trading down 0.33 per cent on Tuesday. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities, including gold, more affordable for investors who hold other currencies. 
Gold has risen in recent days on the back of a weaker-than-expected 1.2 per cent growth in the US gross domestic product in the second quarter. - The Australian

Friday, July 29, 2016

Gold rises and investors lose complete faith in central bankers following the Fed and BoJ's failed guidance

Gold prices have recovered from recent pullbacks following this week's less than insightful messages from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.  In fact, faith in the central banks has dropped to a near record low, and investors are becoming extremely wary that the monetary controllers will be unable to do the right things for interest rates and increased stimulus as the economy moves closer towards another crisis.

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve gave a lukewarm message and chose not to raise rates despite high job numbers from the May report.  And last night, the markets completely rejected Kuroda's promises of new stimulus, sending gold higher, and the Yen back towards 102 to the dollar.

Individual investors like Kudo drove a 60 percent jump in sales of the precious metal in June from May at Tanaka Holdings Co., the operator of Japan’s largest bullion retailer, as the yen’s rebound against the dollar made it more affordable. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party scored a convincing victory in July 10 upper house elections, confidence in his economic policies is flagging. A July 2-3 Asahi newspaper poll showed 55 percent of those surveyed support a new direction versus 28 percent for maintaining course. 
Strong Yen 
The yen’s 17 percent gain this year is a reflection of Japanese investors fleeing from overseas markets due to pessimism about global growth rather than confidence in their own economy. Gold sales more than tripled at Tanaka’s shops on June 24, when the Japanese currency jumped to an almost three-year high against the dollar after the U.K. decided to exit the European Union. Japan’s Topix stock gauge dropped the most in five years the day after the Brexit referendum, while 10-year sovereign bond yields tumbled further below zero. - Bloomberg

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Western debt based economics: It now takes $10 of debt to create $1 of GDP growth

When central banks embark on fiscally irresponsible monetary policies, they tend to create anomalies that lead to economic crashes, bubbles, and as we are seeing in places like Greece and Japan, eternal deflationary growth.
But the United States for the time being is different, and this is because they still remain the sole keeper of the global reserve currency.  And this means that they can print endless money without thought, at least until the consequences of ignoring reality comes to bear.
Following endless zero interest rates and four different quantitative easing programs, a number of anomalies have arisen that are becoming impossible to ignore, and even more difficult to counter.  The first is that they have created so much debt that it requires the creation of new credit simply to remain static within the current economy.  And secondly, that debt creation has completely wiped out the concept of capital, where a new report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that it now takes $10 of new debt just to create $1 of new GDP growth.
Read more on this article here...

Friday, May 6, 2016

Bad jobs report good for gold and bad for dollar as expectations of Fed hike diminish

Ever since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point last December, analysts have been forecasting between two and four more rates hikes in 2016 as the assumption that the economy is now 'doing well' has skewed expectations despite the real data denoting the world is in a global recession.

On May 6, these analyst assumptions took a massive hit as job numbers for April came in more than 40,000 less than expectations and the chance of a rate hike taking place in June, or the rest of the year, suddenly plunged to near zero.

What this means in the long run for both gold and the dollar is that it may be more likely that the central bank must change course and now put in a rate drop, as well as more quantitative easing back on the table, which will cause the dollar to weaken and gold to continue its rise as people and investors look for safe havens from Fed impotence.

As the global uncertainties have gripped the major economies of the world, most assets have lost their attractiveness to investors. Only gold’s allure remains, and we’ve seen a rally in precious-metal-based funds and other related investments. 
The Federal Reserve remained shy about a rate hike owing to the downward sticky inflation numbers that fail to give muscle power to the central government. While the inflation numbers run below the target 2%, the personal consumption expenditures index rose 1.3% in January year-over-year. The core inflation increased 1.7%, but the prospects for the same measure remain unchanged. The GDP (gross domestic product) growth expectations have also dropped since December. - Market Realist

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Consumer trust and hope in the economy falling

Late last week, the Atlanta Fed lowered their Q1 GDP expectations down for the third time in a week to .1%, yet the mainstream continues to dismiss any possibility that the economy is either moving into recession, or that it is already in one.  And at the core of their propaganda is the belief that the consumer is alive and well, and spending money assumed to have been garnered from lower oil prices.
But two new polls and surveys out on April 15 show that not only is this assumption a lie, but that trust and sentiment in the economy is falling rather than growing.
Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

IMF downgrades entire global economy following bank warnings of imminent defaults

It is both sad and funny how the mainstream propagandists can say that the economy and financial systems are absolutely fine one week, and then less than five days later warn of imminent disaster due to the potential of global credit defaults.  But this is exactly what has happened as the IMF downgraded the entire global economy on April 12, and both Bank of America and Deutsche Bank publicly announced serious dangers in the credit markets.
Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower. - Zerohedge


Yet in addition to the IMF's new forecast of an economic slowdown, and European bank warnings of credit defaults, the biggest danger may be coming from the Far East as a former IMF Chief Economist for the IMF announced that Japan is in its 'Endgame', and has reached the point of no return as it resides at a debt level of 250% of its annual GDP.

There is a reason why we have seen multiple central banks move into negative interest rates, call for direct payments to their citizens, and promote the idea of banning cash, because the reality is that the world is rushing headlong into the next financial crisis, and the clock is ticking for everyone to secure their wealth and get out of the system before they lose it all.

And we all know where the best safe haven is.



Saturday, April 9, 2016

Economic growth falling fast as Atlanta Fed revises GDP estimates for 3rd time in less than a month

On April 8, the Atlanta Fed downgraded their Q1 GDP estimates for the second time in less than a week, and for the third time within the past 30 days.  And this comes just as earnings season for Wall Street companies are about to begin next week.
Since beginning the year with an announcement that GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016 would be above 1%, and calling for growth as high as 2.6% as recently as February, the Atlanta Fed has changed course immensely since March 15 and has called for growth estimates of .7%, .4%, and now .1% respectively since that date.
gdp q1
Read more on this article here...

Friday, April 8, 2016

On the cusp of 2008: Inflation at its lowest levels since just before the financial crash

Because the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve decided to base our economy on debt around four decades ago, the most important indicator they must at all costs keep growing is that of inflation.  This is because to afford to either pay off or rollover the debts they accumulate, they must continue to increase the money supply to support this credit expansion.

But as we know from history, these policies have one major achilles heal, and that of course is the gold.  And it is why for the past six years of QE and Zero Interest Rates the Treasury and central banks have had to manipulate the price to keep it down, and keep it from revealing just how insolvent the system really is.
Today’s chart shows the annual inflation rate of advanced economies, which includes the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Inflation measures how fast prices for everyday goods and services are rising. Last year, inflation fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis. This worries central bankers. 
You see, central bankers don’t view inflation like most people do. They think inflation helps the economy grow. For the past eight years, they’ve done everything they can to stoke inflation. They’ve slashed interest rates. They printed trillions of currency units.
None of this has worked. Prices for everyday goods and services have barely increased. 
Central bankers are becoming desperate to increase inflation. We expect them to “double down” on the same bad policies they’ve been using since 2008. That could mean more interest rate cuts...more QE...or even helicopter money. 
Owning physical gold is the best way to protect your money from these reckless government policies. - Casey Research

Since the middle of 2014, increases in the money supply have resulted in a point of diminishing returns, where it takes on average $14 new dollars just to create $1 new dollar in GDP growth.  And this can be seen even today on April 8 when the Atlanta Fed lowered its estimated for Q1 GDP for the third time in one week, and down originally from 1%, to .1% in three separate cuts.

There is little more that the central banks can do to stabilize the economy, the dollar, or their insurmountable debt bubble.  And the only thing that you as an individual can do is protect yourself from what is coming by taking your dollars and putting them into the one asset that functions well in deflationary times, and even better during inflationary ones.

Gold.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Q1 GDP estimates throw Yellen’s plan for future rate hikes in the crapper

On March 29, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen spoke at the Economic Club of New York to give a little more insight to the central bank’s future plans for monetary policy.  And in what was a mish-mash of contradictory points provided by the Fed Chair, where in one instance she praised the economy as being good while shortly after called for caution due to uncertainty in that same economy, it appears that data announced from the Atlanta Fed on Monday has invariably thrown all future rate hike possibilities in the crapper.
the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 “nowcast” to 1.0% or even lower,which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the “polar vortex” impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away.”
It was “even lower.”
Moments ago the Atlanta Fed which models concurrent GDP, slashed its Q1 GDP from 1.4% (and 1.9% last week) to a number not even we expected: a paltry 0.6%, which would match the “polar vortexed” GDP print from Q1 2015.
Should the number drop even more, will be the lowest since Q1 of 2014 when the US economy suffered its most recent contraction of nearly -1%. - Zerohedge
Read more on this article here...

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Gold responds favorably as Fed Chairman Janet Yellen shows central bank has no idea what to do for economy

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen spoke at the Economic Club of New York and left monetary markets without direction, and investors rushing into safe havens outside the dollar.  In fact, while the Fed Head spoke contradictory words that the economy is both strong, and also uncertain in nearly the same sentence, the dollar reacted by selling off against most currencies, and gold rose more than $20 by the close of trading.

Perhaps the telling point for Yellen was the fact that on Monday, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its Q1 GDP estimate to below 1%, showing that December's rate hike was a huge mistake in an environment of continuing deflationary recessions.

"the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 “nowcast” to 1.0% or even lower,which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the “polar vortex” impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away.” 
Moments ago the Atlanta Fed which models concurrent GDP, slashed its Q1 GDP from 1.4% (and 1.9% last week) to a number not even we expected: a paltry 0.6%, which would match the “polar vortexed” GDP print from Q1 2015
Should the number drop even more, will be the lowest since Q1 of 2014 when the US economy suffered its most recent contraction of nearly -1%. - Zerohedge

Monday, March 28, 2016

Wonder why consumers have no money from lower oil prices? Thank Obamacare!

If you spend any time watching the business channels on cable you find that the litany of analysts they parade across the screen cite the false narrative that consumers (American people) will be the catalyst for economic recovery because they will have more money to spend thanks to lower oil prices that have occurred over the past 18 months.  But despite this fallacy that didn’t come to pass, and was validated yesterday in a 1.4% Q4 GDP revision, there is another reason why Americans have not been able to participate wholeheartedly in the economy, and that reason is Obamacare.
The increase in healthcare spending and the Obamacare tax was by far the number one spending item by consumers in 2015, and nearly double the second place item which was new vehicle purchases.
2015 consumer spending
Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

New Gallup Poll shows most Americans feel China a more powerful economy than the U.S.

There is a reason why Presidential candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are making powerful strides in the 2016 election cycle, and it is something that the mainstream fails to recognize.  And despite all the rhetoric and false data used over and over to tell the American people how good and strong their economy is, average citizens are rejecting this propaganda and making their views known in many different ways.
And one way is in how they are dispelling the pundit’s ‘recovery’ myth as a new Gallup Poll out on Feb. 22 shows that more than half of Americans believe China has a much stronger and powerful economy than the U.S. does.

Read more on this article here...

Friday, February 5, 2016

Retail closures scream recession

First it was Macy’s, who within days of the start of the new year announced store closures and layoffs, and was quickly followed by bell wealth company Walmart, who doubled down and reported the closure of hundreds of stores.  And now we can include at least six more major retailers who are shuttering down their low revenue outlets as economic conditions scream recession a little more than a month into 2016.
Contrary to mainstream business news, last year’s holiday shopping season was a major disappointment with sales growth worse than in 2014.  And after two years of blaming cold weather on slumping sales, these same pundits switched course and blamed warm weather instead.

Read more on this article here...

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

January ends with U.S. debt crossing over $19 trillion

A new report came out on Feb. 1 showing that the national debt has now crossed over $19 trillion, making it extremely likely that the U.S. will end Obama’s term in office with a debt obligation of over $20 trillion.  And with Congress simply abrogating their duties and giving the government carte blanche authority to borrow and spend as much as they want, whomever wins the Presidency this November will automatically come into office under a dual crises of recession and insolvency.
Right now the U.S.’s debt to GDP ratio is over 104%, meaning the country owes more in liabilities than it produces in annual revenue.  And for any entity but the Federal government, this would mean instant insolvency and the need for a declaration of bankruptcy.

Read more on this article here...

Saturday, January 30, 2016

GDP for 4th quarter comes in below 1%, and would have been negative without forced Obamacare tax

Although we have mentioned it several times, the primary factors that make up U.S. GDP are consumer spending, and government spending.  Combined these two categories within the Gross Domestic Product account for 85% of the total production numbers.
So when 4th Quarter GDP growth came in at less than 1% on Jan. 29 (.69%), it validated that sales over the holiday shopping season were incredibly dismal, and that consumers are close to tapped out when it comes to buying products in the economy.
q4 gdp
Read more on this article here...

Thursday, January 21, 2016

IMF pumping out declines in global growth forecasts like central banks print money

On Jan. 19, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global growth for the third time in less than a year, validating that the largest financial centers in the world have little idea on what is actually occurring within the global economy.
The IMF’s cut follows today’s announced decline in China’s GDP, and last Friday’s Atlanta Fed announcement that they were cutting estimates on U.S. GDP growth for the quarter ending December 2015.

Read more on this article here...

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Fed publishes drastic fall in GDP forecasts, setting the stage for less than 2% growth for 2015

Recovery!  The mantra of the Federal Reserve and mainstream pundits parroting the party line.  But it appears that like poll numbers given prior to Presidential elections, when all the votes are counted, what was forecast for months leading up to the end of a cycle was much different than the actual outcome.
For most of 2015 the Fed and big bank analysts predicted an annual GDP growth rate between 2.5 - 3%.  But a new report published on Jan. 4 by the Atlanta Fed shows that not only is GDP growth looking to be below 2% for last year, but it will be as much as six bps below the dreadful number that ended 2014.

Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Fed publishes drastic fall in GDP forecasts, setting the stage for less than 2% growth for 2015

Recovery!  The mantra of the Federal Reserve and mainstream pundits parroting the party line.  But it appears that like poll numbers given prior to Presidential elections, when all the votes are counted, what was forecast for months leading up to the end of a cycle was much different than the actual outcome.
For most of 2015 the Fed and big bank analysts predicted an annual GDP growth rate between 2.5 - 3%.  But a new report published on Jan. 4 by the Atlanta Fed shows that not only is GDP growth looking to be below 2% for last year, but it will be as much as six bps below the dreadful number that ended 2014.

Read more on this article here...