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Showing posts with label forecasts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasts. Show all posts

Friday, December 30, 2016

Gold, Bitcoin, and the state of the dollar heading into 2017

As an observer of economic and geo-political events, we at The Daily Economist prefer to look at things more pragmatically rather than to make wild speculations in forecasts or predictions for a coming year.  But with certain realities beginning to unfold all across the financial spectrum in the last days of 2016, the groundwork appears to be in place for commentary and analysis on a few trends that could be taking shape.

Each of these trends are tied specifically to differing forms of currency or money, and their potential growth in economies both regional, and worldwide as the global financial system heralds immense change and the likelihood of new crises.

The advent of Donald Trump winning the U.S. Presidential election 50 days ago saw stocks, bonds, and the dollar react in ways not seen in the past three years.  And likewise the rest of the world reacted in nearly opposite fashion, with China and India bearing the brunt of America's artificially exploding markets.

And with this in mind it is a high probability that policies coming out of Eurasia and the Far East will dictate much of the monetary changes that the world will experience in 2017.

Gold:

Following the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. Presidency, gold and silver were summarily crushed around 16.5% in the Comex and in London, and began the separation in price between the Western paper markets, and the physical one run out of Shanghai.  And those spreads in price will only become greater than the average $25 - $50 divergence that is currently taking place due to high demand and lower supply of the physical metal.

And it is likely that sometime in 2017 China will seize sole control over price determination for gold and silver as more and more producers sell their metals directly to China and abstain from the manipulated futures markets run by London and New York.

Bitcoin:

Thanks to the extreme rise in the dollar to over 103 on the index, China has experienced severe pressure to its own currency and economy as it fights desperately to rein in capital flight of the Yuan from the Mainland.  And it has been through Bitcoin that many Chinese investors are using to funnel wealth out of China over the past three weeks, causing the price to surge to nearly $1000 from its support level of $640 late last month.

This rise in value will only increase in 2017 as investors in not only China but also in other countries join in and expand their use of the crypto-currency as a conduit to launder money from their local currency into others to then buy tangible assets that protect their store of wealth.

The fate of the dollar as the global reserve currency:


2016 was a banner year for nations and industries to move away from the dollar and conduct commerce using direct bi-lateral currencies.  And these trade agreements were only drops in the bucket to the advent of China expanding the use of the IMF's M SDR currency in international finance.

But China is setting its sights on bigger game, and began this last week when the Deputy General Manager of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange announced a program through which the Yuan currency will be expanded globally through its physical gold markets.  And all that remains is for China to call for the end of the uni-polar reserve currency that is the dollar, and open the door for nations to bypass it at will in a new gold backed trading mechanism underwritten by the Yuan.
The Chinese Yuan is linked to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar at these levels China has rapidly entered a financial crisis. 
In the last month, China has: 
1)   Burned through over $70 billion defending the Yuan.
2)   Had to halt trading in its multi-TRILLION dollar bond market.
3)   Had to issue emergency lending to financial firms to keep them afloat. 
ALL of these are linked to the US Dollar’s rise. And it’s lead the world to a very nasty situation. 
China has a couple different options, NONE of them are pretty for the financial system. 
Alternatively China could go for the “nuclear” option and demand that the US be removed as reserve currency of the world. 
This is not some crazed notion. China is the second largest economy in the world. And the Yuan is now part of the IMF’s SDR currency basket along with the Yen, British Pound and the Euro. 
I’m not saying the US Dollar would necessarily LOSE reserve currency status, but if China were to publicly call for this, the consequences would be severe.
As in, CRISIS severe. - Phoenix Capital Marketing via Zerohedge
The stage is set for a global change in the long-standing Bretton Woods uni-polar reserve currency system, and 2017 is shaping up to be the year for the end of dollar hegemony.  And the primary winners in this will be gold, silver, bitcoin, and the Yuan, with anyone holding paper investments denominated in dollars potentially losing a great deal of their wealth.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Investors, traders, and analysts expect gold to be higher in forecasts for 2017

Gold has been validated to currently be in the next leg of a Bull Market and investors, traders, and analysts all see the price going much higher in 2017.

In a poll conducted by Reuters on Oct. 28, 35 Wall Street participants confirmed that the gold price will go up next year, with the average price range being about $1331 per ounce.

Gold is expected to post its highest average annual price in four years in 2017, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, after bottoming out this year following three straight years of decline. 
The poll of 35 analysts and traders conducted over the last two weeks returned an average gold price forecast for 2017 of $1,331 an ounce. That would be the highest average since 2013, when the metal plunged 28 percent year on year. 
Respondents predicted an average gold price this year of $1,270 an ounce, slightly above the current average of $1,258. That reflects a stronger expected performance in the fourth quarter, when prices are expected to average $1,300. - Reuters
On a side note, the estimated price range of $1331 from Wall Street participants does not take into consideration geo-political or financial black swans, which like with Brexit, could send gold skyrocketing well above their current forecasts and closer towards gold's all time highs.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Got Karatbars? The outlook for 2016 in the economy, gold, and finance

Well, it's the end of another year and as most analysts are saying on mainstream business news this Dec. 31, the overall year was stagnant.  But since most of their rhetoric is tied primarily towards propping up stock markets, it is vital that we take a look at the alternative media for a more rounded look at what took place over the past 365 days, and what is coming in 2016.

In numerology 2016 breaks down to a year of 9, and represents a completion and ending of a cycle.  And if we go back 9 years to 2007, we saw that the financial system was ramping up and rushing headlong into a collapse that was slow to begin, but came on suddenly and swiftly with little warning in Oct. of 2008.

So with this in mind, what are many analysts forecasting for 2016, and more importantly, which information is relevant to you in determining your own course of investing, saving, and growing your business.

Doug Kass over at Seabreeze Partners predicts geo-political events in 2016 will have an extreme effect on the global economy, and in particular the expanding war on terrorist.

Terrorism Dismantles an Already Fragile Global Recovery
I fear we’ll see attacks that demonstrate how terrorism incidents are systemic and not (as the consensus sometimes believes) simply isolated. It could become apparent that we face a broad, aggressive wave of terrorism aimed (as expressed by ISIS) at defeating the West’s world domination. 
Acceptance of this notion would cause significant disruption in global markets and the world’s economies. Shares in airlines, hotels, entertainment companies (especially theme-park related) might suffer the most throughout the year.
America Falls into Recession and Stocks Tank
Too much debt, too little growth, fiscal-policy paralysis, a “spent” Federal Reserve and limited capital spending (which adversely impacts productivity) weigh down stocks in 2016. So do crony capitalism, geopolitical instability a further narrowing of market leadership and a further technical breakdown. 
The current U.S. expansion is now more than 70 months old, one of the longest in history. There have been six recessions since 1971, and the S&P 500’s average drop during them is 36%. I predict 2016 will see the seventh recession in the last 45 years, with stocks experiencing a 20% decline. 
Few asset classes will be spared, and household net worths will suffer. Rising bond prices had the effect of somewhat buffering falling stock and home prices in the last downturn. But we won’t be so fortunate this time as stocks, real estate and bond prices will likely all decline at the same time.
Bloomberg also published forecasts for 2016 through a survey of their top analysts in a number of different companies.
Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets equity and global macro, Morgan Stanley Investment Management - Watch for a Worldwide Recession 
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. and co-portfolio manager of the $20 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund - Fixed Income Faces a Rocky Road 
Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, which oversees more than $100 billion in assets - The EU Faces Its Biggest Challenge Yet

IMF chief warns of ‘disappointing’ global growth in 2016
Global economic growth will be disappointing and uneven next year, said the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde in an article for German newspaper Handelsblatt.  
“In many countries the financial sector still has weaknesses and in emerging markets the financial risks are increasing. All of that means global growth will be disappointing and uneven in 2016,” said Lagarde. - Russia Today
Market Watch: Paul Farrell
It’s time to start the countdown to the crash of 2016. No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash. 
Most investors don’t want to hear the countdown, will tune out. Basic psychology. They’ll keep charging ahead with a bullish battle cry, about how the Nasdaq will keep climbing relentlessly to a new record above 5,048 … smiling as they remember reading that a whopping 73 companies are now in the Wall Street Journal’s Billion Dollar Start-up Club, with Uber ($41 billion), SpaceX ($12 billion) and Snapchat ($10 billion). 
Hearts race even faster reading in Bloomberg BusinessWeek that “China’s IPO Boom Mints Billionaires” and Jack Ma’s Alibaba fortune is now valued at $35.1 billion. 
Yes, technology IPOs are in the lead, and with all that good news, it’s easy to understand why investors tune out, don’t want to hear the warnings, no countdown to the 2016 crash. 
But the crash of 2016 really is coming. Dead ahead.

2016 is expected to be the year that China will skyrocket the use of the Yuan throughout the entire global monetary system, and put the U.S. dollar squarely in the crosshairs of viability in the reserve currency system.  And once this finally reaches a point of critical mass, then the next and final step will be a return to a gold backed system where trade currencies and even many local currencies will be funded by gold.

Many people and investors around today remember what took place following the 2008 Credit Crisis, and the subsequent Great Recession that saw taxpayer funded bailouts, and stock markets that fell over 40% in less than two years.  And with central banks out of ammunition to defend against another crash, they will not be capable of saving both markets and economies when the next crisis occurs.

But you can do so for yourself, and in the one form of money that has lasted through every crash and collapse in history.

Gold.

And you can do this with a company called Karatbars



Buying gold through Karatbars is one of the easiest things on the net.  In fact, the business model of Karatbars is to sell gold in affordable quantities, such as 1, 2.5, and 5 gram increments, and allow customers to get into the metal without having to shell out $1200+ for a single ounce coin.

And as added perks to signing up with Karatbars, as a customer or affiliate, Karatbars is working on a new e-wallet system that functions just like an offshore bank account, and is outside the authority of the banking system.  From there, you can take your fiat currency in any denomination... dollars, euros, yen, etc... and purchase physical gold which can either be delivered directly to you, or stored for free at one of Karatbar's vaults.

Additionally, any gold that you buy can easily be sold back to Karatbars, or any metals dealer, and if with Karatbars it is then exchanged for currency that is uploaded to you through a pre-loaded debit Mastercard which is connected directly to your e-wallet.  And as we know, MasterCard is recognized in nearly every country around the world, and usable in any currency that accepts it.

But perhaps the best feature with Karatbars is their affiliate program, where you can earn money off commissions from getting others to sign up and become a customer or affiliate.  Not only do you receive commissions from their purchasing of physical gold, but you also earn commissions from anyone who buys a commission package, with that money going directly into your debit MasterCard when you have enough units to cycle.

Imagine the ability to earn the money in which to buy your gold savings simply by purchasing a commission affiliate package one time, and then getting others to sign up and do the same thing.

How many businesses or entrepreneurs can build an infinite business with spending less than $400 of their own money?  And there is never a mandatory requirement to buy beyond what you desire, on your own schedule.  And there is nothing to lose, because you're using money (paper dollars) to buy gold (physical money) and in the end you don't lose a thing.


The global financial system, along with dozens of respected economists, are telling us that now is the time for the end of our current form of money, and the beginning of the transition into a new monetary system that is expected to be backed by gold.  And with banks, governments, and even Harvard professors mandating that central banks have no choice but to eliminate cash from usage by the people to stave off collapse, will you wait until it is too late to make a decision on how you will protect your wealth, and be able to function within the coming new monetary system?

To learn more about Karatbars, you can contact the individual who sent you this article, and click on their referral link to open a free account and begin buying, or building your own gold savings or business with the company of the future.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The myriad of economic predictions and forecasts for 2016

Whether it is the mainstream or the alternative medias, economic and financial predictions are part and parcel for the final week of a given year.  And perhaps what is humorous for the average reader is how dichotomous these forecasts can be, with one side always predicting good times for the economy, and the other side lamenting collapse.
So rather than picking and choosing who is more accurate or cogent on an individual basis, this year we will post a number of different forecasts from a number of different sources and look back a year from now and see who was on the ball, and who was full of garbage.

Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Got Karatbars? World's top trends forecaster Gerald Celente predicts war, economic chaos, and currency disruptions in 2016

As we near Christmas, and the final weeks of 2016, the time for economic predictions and forecasts are starting to come from both mainstream, and alternative news sources.  And when it comes to global forecasts, very few can put themselves in the same league as the undisputed leader in trends tracking, that being Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal.

On Monday, Gerald Celente sat down with USA Watchdog's Greg Hunter to discuss both current, and future trends that are coming over the horizon for 2016.  And just as Celente last year predicted the rise of chaotic geo-politics that we have and are seeing now in 2015, it will only be the precursor to even greater economic calamities, currency disruptions, and an expansion of war drums heading into next year.

Celente on the Economy
Top trends forecaster Gerald Celente says 2016 is going to be very rough. What’s coming right at us? Celente says, “Global recession, and it’s already happening, all they have to do is open their eyes and open their ears. Iron ore, copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, one after another from wheat to dairy products to corn. When you look at the Bloomberg Index, it’s down to 1999 levels on average. What is that telling us? There is too much product and not enough demand. It’s the same thing with oil. There’s too much production and not enough demand. . . . What we are looking at is a global slowdown because commodities are the canary in the mine shaft.”
On Geo-politics and War
On global war, Celente says, “Unfortunately, when all else fails, they take us to war. Look, go back to 1929 and the market crash. You had market crashes, Great Depression, currency wars, trade wars, world war.  Voila, here we are again. Panic of ‘08, Great Recession, currency wars world war. . . . When the market collapses, the war talk will heat up.”
And on Gold and Silver
Gold and silver are running counter to other commodities. Why? Celente says, “Demand is up for gold and silver. To me, it is the ultimate safe haven. I’ve been saying since 2012 and 2013 that the bottom for gold is about $1,050 an ounce. I gave that number out because that’s about what it costs to pull it out of the ground. . . . Gold is about planning for the worst.”

So, is the spike in gold and silver demand a precursor to the next crash, which Celente is predicting to be coming soon? Celente says, “I totally believe so. . . . It’s definitely worse now. Look at the bubble they created. . . . If there is a terror strike, they will use this as the excuse to rob us to try to mitigate the disaster that they have caused. I believe they will declare a bank holiday and devalue the currency. That’s the way they are going to get us out of this.”

Besides Gerald Celente's forecast for recession and war, another alternative media economist also agrees with most if not all of these assessments, and expands upon the fragility of the economy, even as the holiday season's retail numbers pop 10% below last year's horrific outcome.
#1 On Tuesday, the price of oil closed below 40 dollars a barrel. Back in 2008, the price of oil crashed below 40 dollars a barrel just before the stock market collapsed, and now it has happened again. 
#2 The price of copper has plunged all the way down to $2.04. The last time it was this low was just before the stock market crash of 2008. 
#3 The Business Roundtable’s forecast for business investment in 2016 has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession. 
#4 Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession. This is a huge problem because corporate debt in the U.S. has approximately doubled since just before the last financial crisis. 
#5 The Bloomberg U.S. economic surprise index is more negative right now than it was at any point during the last recession. 
#6 Credit card data that was just released shows that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession. 
#7 As I mentioned yesterday, U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last recession. 
#8 The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. Not even during the depths of the last recession was it ever this low. 
#9 In 2008, commodity prices crashed just before the stock market did, and late last month the Bloomberg Commodity Index hit a 16 year low. #10 In the past, stocks have tended to crash about 12-18 months after a peak in corporate profit margins. At this point, we are 15 months after the most recent peak. #11 If you look back at 2008, you will see that junk bonds crashed horribly. Why this is important is because junk bonds started crashing before stocks did, and right now they have dropped to the lowest point that they have been since the last financial crisis. 
If just one or two of these indicators were flashing red, that would be bad enough.
The fact that all of them seem to be saying the exact same thing tells us that big trouble is ahead. 
And I am not the only one saying this. Just today, a Reuters article discussed the fact that Citigroup analysts are projecting that there is a 65 percent chance that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession in 2016… Author Robert Kiyosaki: ‘Biggest’ Market Crash Likely in 2016 Author Robert Kiyosaki: ‘Biggest’ Market Crash Likely in 2016 Important: Can you afford to Retire? Robert Kiyosaki, best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” warns that stock market manipulation may result in a crash bigger than in 2007. Gold and silver have crashed. Junk bonds have crashed. Chinese stocks have crashed. The Global Economy Is Officially Melting Down - Investment Watchblog

All predictions and forecasts are never written in stone, and quite often the hit rates on many of these can be around 50% or less.  But of the analysts who publicly make economic forecasts each year for investors, companies, and even the general public, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, and Dr. Jim Willie are by far the most accurate in their assessments, and have a proven track record of predicting the last major financial crisis more than a year before it occurred in 2008.

So if recession, global wars, currency collapses, and threats to the dollar are on the horizon for next year, what is the best way for you to be prepared no matter what happens inside the U.S., or in markets and currencies within the entire global financial system?

With physical gold from a company called Karatbars.




Buying gold through Karatbars is one of the easiest things on the net.  In fact, the business model of Karatbars is to sell gold in affordable quantities, such as 1, 2.5, and 5 gram increments, and allow customers to get into the metal without having to shell out $1200+ for a single ounce coin.

And as added perks to signing up with Karatbars, as a customer or affiliate, Karatbars is working on a new e-wallet system that functions just like an offshore bank account, and is outside the authority of the banking system.  From there, you can take your fiat currency in any denomination... dollars, euros, yen, etc... and purchase physical gold which can either be delivered directly to you, or stored for free at one of Karatbar's vaults.

Additionally, any gold that you buy can easily be sold back to Karatbars, or any metals dealer, and if with Karatbars it is then exchanged for currency that is uploaded to you through a pre-loaded debit Mastercard which is connected directly to your e-wallet.  And as we know, MasterCard is recognized in nearly every country around the world, and usable in any currency that accepts it.

But perhaps the best feature with Karatbars is their affiliate program, where you can earn money off commissions from getting others to sign up and become a customer or affiliate.  Not only do you receive commissions from their purchasing of physical gold, but you also earn commissions from anyone who buys a commission package, with that money going directly into your debit MasterCard when you have enough units to cycle.

Imagine the ability to earn the money in which to buy your gold savings simply by purchasing a commission affiliate package one time, and then getting others to sign up and do the same thing.

How many businesses or entrepreneurs can build an infinite business with spending less than $400 of their own money?  And there is never a mandatory requirement to buy beyond what you desire, on your own schedule.  And there is nothing to lose, because you're using money (paper dollars) to buy gold (physical money) and in the end you don't lose a thing.


The global financial system, along with dozens of respected economists, are telling us that now is the time for the end of our current form of money, and the beginning of the transition into a new monetary system that is expected to be backed by gold.  And with banks, governments, and even Harvard professors mandating that central banks have no choice but to eliminate cash from usage by the people to stave off collapse, will you wait until it is too late to make a decision on how you will protect your wealth, and be able to function within the coming new monetary system?

To learn more about Karatbars, you can contact the individual who sent you this article, and click on their referral link to open a free account and begin buying, or building your own gold savings or business with the company of the future.