The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Showing posts with label financial crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crash. Show all posts

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Stock markets now overvalued to levels greater than the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 crash

Over the past 20 years, and especially since 2009, the Federal Reserve has been using the stock markets as a way to mask the underlying insolvency of the general economy.  It is why every business media outlet and segment pushes what the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq did on a given day, while minimizing the fact that corporate earnings have declined en masse over the past decade.

Since the election of Donald Trump last November, the Dow has not only crossed the unprecedented level of 20,000, but in a very short time it also soared to over 21,000 in little more than a month.  But what has really happened is that the P/E ratios (Price to Earnings) for companies on these respective exchanges have nearly doubled their historic averages, and are now above the bubble levels seen just prior to the Dot Com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and even the greatest market event in the nation's history, that of October 1929.

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So, in the name of history, let us briefly examine some of its most important economic factors and how they apply to current market conditions. The present S&P 500 price to earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.52, as opposed to the historical median average which is 14.65. Perhaps more importantly the Schiller P/E is presently 29.27, when the median average is only 16.09. Ironically, 29 is the level the market hit on black Tuesday 1929, right before the great depression of the 1930s. Furthermore, the Schiller benchmark is now well above the 25 level the Shiller PE hit before the great recession in 2007. 
Possibly, most troubling is the S&P's price to sales ratio which is 2.08 a level not seen since the dotcom boom and subsequent bust of course. On average companies that make up the S&P 500 are being valued at more than 2 times sales. This is extremely ambitious and clearly indicates that share prices are appreciating much faster than companies are growing their revenues. The phenomenon we are observing now is somewhat reminiscent of the late 1990s. However, unlike in the late 90s when the U.S.'s GDP was growing at approximately 4.5% now the U.S. economy is barely averaging 2%, huge difference indeed. So, a logical question would be why are we seeing such a drastic appreciation in risk asset prices if the growth is simply not there to support it. - FX Street

Thursday, January 5, 2017

India's new scheme of free money to all could be the carrot to coerce people to get into their banking system

Over the past month, India's Prime Minister has used the stick on his people in an attempt to force them to give up their cash and move all commerce into a systematic financial process that could be monitored and taxed by government authorities.  This of course led to a massive backlash as a society that for centuries has run primarily on cash, and where only 36% of the population even has a bank account, rushed instead to exchange their currency for gold rather than deposit their cash into the banks.

Now however, Prime Minister Modi appears to be switching his stick for the carrot and is using a different means to try to entice India's 1.4 billion people into the banking system by proposing a scheme of free money, or a Universal Basic Income, to get a large portion of the population reliant upon the government and more amenable to buying into their financial system.

Image result for free money universal basic income
The Indian government is likely to introduce Universal Basic Income, a practice of paying every person a fixed sum of money as a means to stimulate the economy and improve the quality of life of its citizens, according to the concept’s leading proponent. 
The Indian government is preparing a report documenting that a Universal Basic Income (UBI) is "feasible" and "basically the way forward," according to professor Guy Standing, a leading advocate for UBI, and the leader of the Basic Income Earth Network movement (BIEN). - Sputnik News
UBI schemes come with many pro's and con's, but most significantly the outcome of such programs depends upon the disposition of a people and culture.  For example, in Finland where they have just enacted a universal basic income system, the majority of recipients have surveyed that they still intend to work at the same time they receive the extra money, and this speaks highly to the diligence of the culture where a UBI scheme may work in the short run.  Yet on the other side, having a nation like France or even the United States where large portions of the population have lived off of welfare for generations, a promise of free money will not change the landscape of increasing the incentive to both work and receive extra income, but instead simply replace one form of welfare with another.

The ultimate goal of the Universal Basic Income system is to try to get everyone reliant upon the government, and their money stored in the banks where at a later time the ultimate agenda of a cashless society can be instituted.  But to do this it may take a financial crisis of epic proportion to achieve this, and that may be coming much sooner than people could imagine.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

As Deutsche Bank teeters on edge of collapse, rise in gold prices signal warning of pending monetary collapse

Since the price of gold has been rising steadily since January of this year, we already know that it wasn't simply last week's Brexit event which created the catalyst for gold prices to climb to a new two-year high.  And following Britain's historic move to leave the European Union six days ago, analysts are now seeing gold signal a warning sign that a larger monetary event may be just on the horizon.

Modern financial collapses tend not to come from economic recession or declines in the stock markets, but rather in liquidity crises that emerge from insolvent banks... such as from those we saw from Northern Rock in 2007, and Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, and Morgan Stanley a year later.  And with the Federal Reserve's stress tests on banks coming to a completion, fears are emerging that Germany's largest financial institution is ready bring about a new monetary collapse.

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted. 
Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime. 
The IMF also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally. This means that in the global interconnected game of counterparty dominoes, if Deutsche Bank falls, everyone else will follow. - Zerohedge
There is a reason why the 'smartest men in the room' have been not only divesting themselves and the funds they manage out of stocks, and instead are using those proceeds to buy into gold as their largest investment.  And that reason is because the global financial system is going through a fundamental sea-change, and as yet there is no clear determination on how things will play out... only that it is crucial to be in some form of physical safe haven asset that carries no counter-party risk from the paper markets.

Gold has always acted as a barometer for the strength or weakness of currencies, but in today's paper and electronic monetary system, it now acts as a warning sign on the strength of banks, markets, and economies as well.  And with central banks, sovereign governments, hedge funds, and those few who have woken up to the warnings on the horizon having bought gold to the point that supplies are now extremely tight even before the crash begins, it is unlikely that there will be much supply left at all for those who do not buy into gold now rather than wait until it is far too late to acquire it.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Yale academic believes global economic crash is just months away

According to Yale’s Vikram Mansharamani, the global economic collapse is just months away despite the fact that mainstream pundits are discounting even a slight recession, much less a financial crash.  And at the heart of his analysis is the fact that the credit bubble that has been fueled by central banks over the past several years has finally reached a peak where nearly everything is artificially inflated, and the point of no return has been already crossed.


FINANCIAL bubbles across the globe are imploding and the problem is only set to get worse... Prices are falling around the world thanks to the collapse of China’s debt fuelled economic growth and this has triggered a succession of disastrous events that are starting to be realised, according to Vikram Mansharamani, an author and, lecturer at Yale University. 
Fears are growing that the world could face a financial crash of unprecedented levels and could even be just six months away. 
Bubbles created by the mountain of cheap money made available by low interest rates since the last financial crisis are now starting to burst, said Mr Mansharamani. 
Mr Mansharamani added: “We’ve got a bubble bursting, I would argue, in Australian housing markets — that is beginning to crack; South Africa — the whole economy; Canada — housing and the economy; Brazil. We can keep going on and on.” - London Express