The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Showing posts with label fed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fed. Show all posts

Monday, September 19, 2016

As the Fed prepares for interest rate decision this week, recent history shows gold to climb no matter which way they go

In the past one could accurately predict what would happen to the price of gold when the Federal Reserve chose to move interest rates either higher or lower.  But with the markets now fully manipulated from the central bank's use of QE and stimulus, and both stocks and bonds in over-priced bubbles, rationality and fundamentals no longer are relevant.

In recent history, gold has more often than not risen no matter what the Fed has done because the markets are ruled in large part now by uncertainty.  When the central bank began its five year move of lowering interest rates back in 2010, and printing money to buy bonds, stocks, and any and all assets they could get their hands on, the markets had supreme trust in the Fed, and it was reflected in the drop in gold from an all-time high of $1940 to its pre-December 2015 low of $1045.

But as we have seen for the last 10 months, every time the Fed issues a formal statement to either raise rates (December 2015), or make no changes (All of 2016 to date), gold has responded in kind to the upside.

January 27 FOMC Meeting - Gold Up



March 16 FOMC Meeting - Gold Up



April 27 FOMC Meeting - Gold Up



June 15 FOMC Meeting - Gold Up



July 27 FOMC Meeting - Gold Up



September 21 FOMC Meeting - Gold ?

So when interest rates were raised in December of 2015, the gold price went up.  And subsequently after every single FOMC meeting this year, the price also went up when they did nothing.

Interest rates are still near zero, with the Fed desperately afraid to both raise them up prior to the election, or lower them down into negative territory like in Europe and Japan.  And it is in part to this schizophrenia and loss of confidence in the central bank that will very likely keep gold prices going up for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Despite declines in gold price in August, demand for the metal hit a four year high

Now that the summer market doldrums are over following the turning of the calendar on Labor Day, gold is acting as it normally does heading into its biggest price months of the year.

In fact, so far on the first trading day in September, gold is up over $14 and should go much higher very soon since economic data from manufacturing just about assured there will be no Fed rate hike when the FOMC meets later this month.

Live New York Gold Chart [Kitco Inc.]

Yet despite the fact that gold lost some of its gains during August, an interesting statistic emerged on Sept. 6 which puts alot into perspective for the rest of the year.  And that is that demand for gold by individuals hit a four year high last month, meaning that new support is now in the market to take gold much, much higher.
Private investor appetite for gold hit a four-year high last month, swelling net purchases on the BullionVault trading platform by almost half a tonne. 
The financial jitters triggered by the Brexit vote and record low interest rates have spurred demand for the safe-haven commodity over recent months, driving total holdings at BullionVault to 35.7 tonnes. 
Although the number of private buyers slipped 6pc in August, those willing to reduce the holdings they have built up over summer dropped 49pc to boost the net demand. 
As a result BullionVault's Gold Investor Index up to a new 3-year high of 56.0, reaching its highest level since April 2013 from July's 53.4 reading.
Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: “Private investors continue to grow their gold holdings against a trend of both rising prices and rising financial risks. 
“Last time net gold investing demand was this strong, prices were retreating hard from the late 2012 rally. August 2016 in contrast marked the fourth time running that average monthly gold prices rose against the dollar, a pattern not seen since the metal peaked with the global financial crisis in summer 2011." - Telegraph

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Academics now vilifying cash after decades of downplaying gold

The stereotype that labels academics as little more than theorists cloistered in their ivory towers was on full display this last week when a Harvard economics Professor and P.H.D. suggested that it was time to ban all physical cash because it naturally leads people to evade taxes, incite human trafficking, and is the fundamental cause of many criminal activities.

Ironically as well, this faulty line of thinking has been the catalyst behind the vilification of gold for so many decades, and its label as little more than a 'pet rock'.

Six months since Larry Summers first suggested "it's time to kill the $100 bill," and three months after The ECB actually killed the €500 Note, another Harvard scholar is reinvigorating the war on cash. Amid claims that paper money fuels corruption, terrorism, tax evasion, and illegal immigration, Ken Rogoff (ironically of "It's Different This Time" infamy) says the US should get rid of the $100 bill(and $50s and $20s) proposing, in his words, "a 'less-cash' society, not a cashless one, at least for the foreseeable future." 
According to the esteemed ivory tower academic, paper currency lies at the heart of some of today’s most intractable public-finance and monetary problems. As Rogoff explains in The Wall Street Journal, getting rid of most of it - that is, moving to a society where cash is used less frequently and mainly for small transactions - could be a big help. 
Rogoff's begins by stating factoids as facts... 
There is little debate among law-enforcement agencies that paper currency, especially large notes such as the U.S. $100 bill, facilitates crime: racketeering, extortion, money laundering, drug and human trafficking, the corruption of public officials, not to mention terrorism. There are substitutes for cash—cryptocurrencies, uncut diamonds, gold coins, prepaid cards—but for many kinds of criminal transactions, cash is still king. It delivers absolute anonymity, portability, liquidity and near-universal acceptance. It is no accident that whenever there is a big-time drug bust, the authorities typically find wads of cash. 
Cash is also deeply implicated in tax evasion, which costs the federal government some $500 billion a year in revenue. According to the Internal Revenue Service, a lot of the action is concentrated in small cash-intensive businesses, where it is difficult to verify sales and the self-reporting of income. By contrast, businesses that take payments mostly by check, bank card or electronic transfer know that it is much easier for tax authorities to catch them dissembling. Though the data are much thinner for state and local governments, they too surely lose big-time from tax evasion, perhaps as much as $200 billion a year. 
Cash also lies at the core of the illegal immigration problem in the U.S. If American employers couldn’t so easily pay illegal workers off the books in cash, the lure of jobs would abate, and the flow of illegal immigrants would shrink drastically. Needless to say, phasing out most cash would be a far more humane and sensible way of discouraging illegal immigration than constructing a giant wall. - Zerohedge
What Professor Rogoff unfortunately tends to ignore in his diatribe to ban cash is that it is not the people, who's potential criminal activities involving money are little more than a drop in the bucket in our $57 trillion global economy, but the fact that the greatest monetary crimes are done without a single physical dollar being used.  It is the digital monetary system, run by banks, central bankers, and corrupt governments, that are the foundation for most of the criminal fraud that takes place in our financial system.

The ability to hold both cash and gold in your hands is as great a freedom as the right to own a gun.  And whenever you see a public official call for the banning of either, then the real reasons behind this are about control and dominion, or in the case of the Federal Reserve, to protect their own to the detriment of people like you and I who simply want to live under the auspices of real and sound money, and individual responsibility.

Friday, August 19, 2016

Financial analyst known as the 'Wall Street Whiz Kid' says mother of all gold bull markets is just beginning

Following the 2008 Credit Crash, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that "I wish I'd been omniscient and seen the crisis coming."  Of course, this is also the academic who claimed the central bank didn't see the United State in a recession when we were already a year into one.

And despite the fact that Bernanke had access to historic data going back to the beginning of the nation's history, and hundreds of Ivy League economists working for him at the Fed, it was not the man whom the U.S. relied primarily upon for determining monetary policy that accurately called out the crash in 2008, but a Wall Street analyst who would become known as 'The Wall Street Whiz Kid' who did so a year in advance.  And his track record speaks for itself since he also correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash, and the ending the dot com bubble in 2000.

So when Peter Grandich speaks on a coming market trend, the world definitely listens.  And on Aug. 18, the Wall Street Whiz Kid wrote on his blog that we are just starting in the 'Mother of all gold bull markets'.

There are many reasons to believe that “the mother of all bull markets has only just begun” for gold. 
So believes Peter Grandich, the market analyst dubbed the “Wall Street Whiz Kid” whose track record speaks for itself. He called the Wall Street Crash in 1987 and subsequent sharp stock market recovery, the end of the bull market in stocks in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. 
I’m not going to write some long dissertation but rather just highlight some of the reasons I personally believe gold is in the earliest stages of what can turn out to be its biggest bull market ever. 
The bullish fundamentals for gold ownership grow almost daily. Again, I could write pages of why, but I will just point out a few key ones: 
1 - The severe gold correction literally wiped away every ounce of bullishness. It had come to last one out of the bullish camp, please turn off the lights. While bullishness is off the canvas now, we still see little or no interest in gold overall while its main rival, financial assets, are now in a full bullish blow-off mode. Being a supporter of gold is like being the “Maytag Repairman” when compared to what most investors and professional are loaded to the gills with (financial assets). 
2 - We’re now just about 180 degrees where we were in 1980. Back then, financial assets were called “dead” and investment “war rooms” preaching gold ownership were widespread. Gold is the ultimate contrarian play and on a valuation basis compared to stocks and bonds, relatively cheap. 
3 - Whether its debt bombs all around the world, paper currencies being debased faster than “Grant took Richmond”, or Central Banks getting ready to launch funny money from helicopters in a last futile attempt to correct their quantitative easing failures, take your pick on the inevitable ignitor that will lead to a blow up of financial systems. It’s not if, but when! - Goldcore

Friday, August 5, 2016

Markets soar to new all-time highs as they realize the Fed will never raise rates on completely manipulated good news

The monthly job report came out for July today, and the massive higher than expected number is sending markets soaring to new all-time highs.  In fact, for the first time in 16 years the Nasdaq has equaled its previous all-time high and could close with a new record.

But underlying all of this is a fantastic dichotomy in fiscal and monetary policies that Wall Street has finally caught on to...  and that is, the government will continue to report bogus manipulated better than expected data, and the Fed will simply ignore it and keep going forward with zero interest rates.


This of course is the signal for speculation to now go all out in equities.
One week ago, the BEA admitted that it had "found a problem" when it comes to calculating GDP numbers. Specifically it blamed "residual seasonality" adjustments for giving historical GDP numbers a persistent optimistic bias. This came in the aftermath of last week's shocking Q2 GDP report which printed at 1.2%, less than half of Wall Street's consensus. 
Today, seasonality made another appearance, this time however in the much anticipated July number, which unlike the woeful Q2 GDP number, was the opposite, coming in far higher than expected. In fact it was higher than the top Wall Street estimate. 
As Mitsubishi UFJ strategist John Herrmann wrote in a note shortly after the report, the "jobs headline overstates" strength of payrolls. He adds that the unadjusted data show a “middling report” that’s “nowhere as strong as the headline" and adds that private payrolls unadjusted +85k in July vs seasonally adjusted +217k. 
We leave it up to readers to decide just why the government may want to represent what would otherwise have been a far weaker than expected report, into a blowout number, one which merely adds to the economic "recovery" narrative, which incidentally will come in very useful to Hillary's presidential campaign. 
Yet even assuming the market has no doubts about the seasonally adjusted headline number, as appears to be the case, the other problem that has emerged for the Fed is how to ignore this strong number. As Bank of Tokyo's Chris Rupkey writes, “Let’s see Yellen get out of this one and find something in the data to once again not raise rates in September.” (We assume he did not see the unadujsted numbers.) 
As he adds, slowing 2Q GDP growth of 1.2% took Sept. rate hike “off the table” and now “the million dollar question” is whether 255k payroll jobs in July, 292k in June put it back on.  As a reminder, Yellen speaks exactly in three weeks time at Jackson Hole on Aug. 26; “let’s see if she provides some guidance." But while rate hike odds may have spiked after today's report, it is almost certain that, as we said last night, the Fed will not dare to hike the rate in September and potentially unleash market turmoil in the most sensitive part of the presidential race. 
As for a December rate hike, there are 4 months until then, and much can happen: who knows, maybe the BLS will even undo the significant seasonal adjustment boost that send July jobs soaring. - Zerohedge


Just remember, there are no markets anymore, only interventions, and for investors the axiom that was created in 2010 is still applicable today...

Don't fight the Fed. 

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Presidential candidate Donald Trump tells supporters to get out of the stock market and sell their 401K's

Most people know that Donald Trump is a highly successful real estate mogul and brand marketer, but interestingly, his prowess for winning has often not manifest itself in the equity and stock markets.  There could be numerous reasons behind why he has failed in this arena but the most probable is that he is not one of the 'insiders' like Warren Buffett, who latches on to government institutions for certain 'insights' into the direction of market industries and executive policies.

So with the Donald not being a big fan of stock markets, it should come as no surprise that the interventions (by the Fed) and manipulations (High Frequency trading computers) that comprise the bulk of equity market trading have led him on Aug. 2 to tell his supporters to not only get completely out of stocks, but to also divest their 401K's before the markets inevitably collapse.

Well, we are now almost exactly three months away from the November 8 election, and if Trump wants to really boost his chances, a market crash right now would be certainly most welcome by his campaign. 
That may be why Trump on Tuesday urged his supporters holding 401-(k) to get out of equities as interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market. 
“I did invest and I got out, and it was actually very good timing,” the Republican presidential nominee said in a phone interview with Fox Business. “But I’ve never been a big investor in the stock market.” “Interest rates are artificially low,” Trump said. “The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.” 
Trump also warned of "very scary scenarios" ahead for investors. - Zerohedge

Friday, July 29, 2016

Gold rises and investors lose complete faith in central bankers following the Fed and BoJ's failed guidance

Gold prices have recovered from recent pullbacks following this week's less than insightful messages from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.  In fact, faith in the central banks has dropped to a near record low, and investors are becoming extremely wary that the monetary controllers will be unable to do the right things for interest rates and increased stimulus as the economy moves closer towards another crisis.

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve gave a lukewarm message and chose not to raise rates despite high job numbers from the May report.  And last night, the markets completely rejected Kuroda's promises of new stimulus, sending gold higher, and the Yen back towards 102 to the dollar.

Individual investors like Kudo drove a 60 percent jump in sales of the precious metal in June from May at Tanaka Holdings Co., the operator of Japan’s largest bullion retailer, as the yen’s rebound against the dollar made it more affordable. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party scored a convincing victory in July 10 upper house elections, confidence in his economic policies is flagging. A July 2-3 Asahi newspaper poll showed 55 percent of those surveyed support a new direction versus 28 percent for maintaining course. 
Strong Yen 
The yen’s 17 percent gain this year is a reflection of Japanese investors fleeing from overseas markets due to pessimism about global growth rather than confidence in their own economy. Gold sales more than tripled at Tanaka’s shops on June 24, when the Japanese currency jumped to an almost three-year high against the dollar after the U.K. decided to exit the European Union. Japan’s Topix stock gauge dropped the most in five years the day after the Brexit referendum, while 10-year sovereign bond yields tumbled further below zero. - Bloomberg

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Recent gold manipulation by the banks may actually be a good thing for the gold price and bull market

In any market, the worst thing that can happen is for a particular asset to rise or increase too fast because this normally indicates that the move is either speculative or bubble driven.  And quite often when assets like stocks or gold move up too quickly, price movement down can be just as volatile as market forces seek to 'fill the gap' between buyers and sellers.

For years gold and silver owners have lamented the obvious and brutal manipulation that has suppressed metal price and values to protect the dollar and other central bank created fiat currencies.  But in the case of gold price manipulation over the past month, it might actually be a good thing, and will ensure that the gold bull market continues forward in the months and years to come.

The manipulators are making it easier for us to accumulate gold at a cheap price.  Every time they hit gold I buy. 
I exchanged emails with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts yesterday about the  sell-off of the price of gold this week caused by the obvious “invisible” hand of the Fed.  Note this was a week in which Japan was supposedly going to drop $100 billion in helicopter money at Ben Bernanke’s behest - an announcement which should have sent gold soaring: 
Me:   I agree this was a manipulated take-down of the price but,  you know as well anyone, markets never go straight up except the Dow/S&P 500 when the Fed wants to make those indices go straight up - like now.    Gold was overdue for a trading correction. I agree there’s some idiots out there who think the Fed is powerless now over gold - that’s ignorance or sensationalism. 
Dr. Roberts:   Is there such a thing as a trading correction when the price is controlled and manipulated? Is it a trading correction when the bullion banks dump, as we have shown numerous times, massive paper shorts in the futures market? 
Me:  I agree with your point there - but to be honest, I like to see any market pullback after it has the type of run that gold has had since early February. Should it be pulling back from a much higher price platform? Yes.  But gold was on the verge of going parabolic, which is never healthy in any market. The Fed is doing us a favor. I have been moving a lot of money from my checking account into my Bitgold account this week every morning. If gold was not being pushed down, I might not have added any. 
The other interesting aspect of your point there is the amount of paper the Fed is needing to throw at gold to keep the price down. The open interest has been more or less at an all-time high on the Comex for a few weeks now. The last time the open interest was this high was when gold was pushing $1900. 
In other words, it is requiring a much bigger relative effort for the Fed to prevent the price of gold from spinning out of its control now than it did when gold was about to launch over $2000. - Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

European banking system ready to implode unless the ECB comes up with $150 billion or more in bailouts

Over the weekend, Europe’s most toxic and insolvent bank (Deutsche Bank) came out with an announcement that if the European Central Bank (ECB) didn’t come up with $150 billion or more in new funding to bailout the continent’s banking system, then it could potentially face an ‘accident’ similar to 2008’s ‘Lehman moment’.
And it is not the largest German bank that is the sole institution in need of recapitalization by the ECB.  In Italy, nearly all the major banks are on the cusp of insolvency, and appear now in the process of a government sponsored bailout coupled with a small customer bail-in.  Added to this, British banks are running into major problems over their bursting housing bubble, and while the UK no longer has the security of going to the ECB for emergency lending, they may receive it anyway since other EU banks hold long derivative positions on the island nation’s securities and could implode if Britain goes the way of default.
BANKERS-COPS
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Monday, July 4, 2016

What if instead of buying bonds, the Fed and other central banks monetized gold?

The only individuals who actually believe that zero percent interest rates, massive money printing (quantitative easing), and bond buying have worked since the Credit Crisis of 2008 are the mainstream stock hawkers on CNBC, and the central banks who have placed their reputations on the line in support of their monetary policies.  But for economic and financial analysts who look at the real data, and not on broken models used to support their already believed failed premises, central bank interventions have harmed the overall economy far more than it has helped in the long run.

So following the Brexit vote, the potential breakup of the EU, and financial institutions in Italy and Germany teetering on collapse, it should come as no surprise that the Fed and the ECB are rushing in the discuss the creation of new and even bigger money printing schemes, and the same bond buying that accomplished little more than siphoning the wealth of their countries into the hands of the few.

But what if the Fed and ECB did something different this time?  Back in April, an analyst with the world's largest Bond insurer proposed that instead of buying bonds this next time, the central banks chose to buy and monetize gold, and at a price so high that it would actually be beneficial to sovereign nations who own the precious metal, and of course to the smart people who have been accumulating it over the past decade.

Bassman says that the Fed should "emulate a past success by making a public offer to purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce? It would be operationally simple as holders could transact directly at regional Federal offices or via authorized precious metal assayers." 
What would the outcome of such as "QE for the goldbugs" look like? His summary assessment: 
A massive Fed gold purchase program would differ from past efforts at monetary expansion. Via QE, the transmission mechanism was wholly contained within the financial system; fiat currency was used to buy fiat assets which then settled on bank balance sheets. Since QE is arcane to most people outside of Wall Street, and NIRP seems just bizarre to most non-academics, these policies have had little impact on inflationary expectations. Global consumers are more familiar with gold than the banking system, thus this avenue of monetary expansion might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and their associated spending habits. 
The USD may initially weaken versus fiat currencies, but other central banks could soon buy gold as well, similar to the paths of QE and NIRP. The impactful twist of a gold purchase program is that it increases the price of a widely recognized “store of value,” a view little diminished despite the fact the U.S. relinquished the gold standard in 1971. This is a vivid contrast to the relatively invisible inflation of financial assets with its perverse side effect of widening the income gap. - Zerohedge
Besides allowing central banks with gold to receive funds to help payoff debt obligations, it would also allow countries who got rid of their gold decades before to start accumulating it once again, perhaps in preparation for a return to the gold standard in their currencies when the Great Reset eventually happens in the global monetary system.

Either way, all signals are pointing towards ownership of gold, both in the hands of individuals and in the hands of sovereign nations and central banks.  And the only obstacle will be how likely are central bankers to be willing to admit their failures in the current credit based Keynesian system, and if they are willing to really do everything that is necessary to escape the monetary crisis that is now upon us, rather than whitewashing it with more debt as they did in 2011.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Gold shoots through $1300 following the Fed's capitulation for raising interest rates

It took approximately a month and a half to recover from the cartel's last smackdown of the gold price to reach and surpass $1300 per ounce, but thanks to Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve's capitulation to not raise interest rates at yesterday's FOMC meeting, gold has once again breached that resistance level and is on its way towards new 52 week highs.

I think the first rate hike cycle is over. What Janet Yellen said in response to my question, and if you look at what has happened to the rate hike cycle, is pretty profound. It’s as close to the Fed getting to capitulation as I’ve ever seen, about the efficacy of Fed policy, about the outlook for the economy. - Steve Liesman, CNBC
Perhaps what was most interesting about yesterday's FOMC decision not to raise rates was the fact that for the first time in many months, there was not a single dissenting voice as the choice to do nothing and leave rates where they are occurred with a unanimous vote.

Despite Yellen's usual rhetoric in saying everything and meaning nothing in her followup to the FOMC announcement, the underlying reality is that central banks around the world are running scared of deteriorating economic and financial conditions that threaten the banks, bond markets, and economic growth.  And this is why hedge fund managers money managers, and billionaires like George Soros are shorting the stock markets and buying into gold since they recognize it is the only real safe haven for what is coming.

Monday, June 13, 2016

Adjusted for inflation, the real value of gold against the dollar should be over $7300 per ounce

When the Federal Reserve took over control of the U.S. monetary system in 1913, the price of gold in relation to dollars was $20.42.  But over the past 103 years, that central bank has devalued the currency by more than 98%, eroding the purchasing power of the dollar through inflation for the products and services we buy

Yet it is interesting that while price inflation has occurred on a relatively equal basis for most items in the economy, and for the commodities and resources that businesses consume, gold has not risen in equal proportion with everything else.

The Debt Clock is an algorithm that approximates the second by second increase in America's national debt, as well as several other monetary factors that are tied to our dollar system.  One of these elements is the estimated real value of gold, which in relation to dollar devaluation over the past 100 years, should be over $7300 per ounce when adjusted for inflation.


In the lower right hand corner is the algorithm that estimates the value of gold, and the relation between the true gold price and the dollar.


And while none of these numbers are actually official, they provide a very good barometer for the erosion of the dollar as a medium of exchange for goods and services, and what the value of gold should be if it had been left to rise in price on the open market without government, central bank, and market intervention.

Former Fed President announces at conference that all his rich friends are hoarding cash

Thanks to the power of the internet and youtube, virtually anything post-1990 can be found in some capacity within the ether.  And for those who did just a small amount of digging, they know that the last two Federal Reserve Chairman admitted they were clueless regarding the housing bubble and stock markets crashes of 2007 and 08.


Yet one regional Fed President did forecast the collapse, but was regularly ignored by his peers.  And now with Richard Fisher out of the halls of central bank power, he is once again warning of a crash, and said two weeks ago at the Strategic Investment Conference that he is not the only one believing that it is coming.
faltering-economy

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Saturday, June 11, 2016

One of the world's top market strategists calls for gold to skyrocket as Fed backed into a corner

Michael Belkin, one of the world's top market strategists who consults for the highest net worth money mangers in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, spoke in an interview where he is forecasting gold to skyrocket well past its all-time high because the Fed is backed into a corner where they will soon look towards new quantitative easing, rather than the hiking of rates.

In his 20 minute interview, Belkin believes that gold is barely into the first inning of its new bill run, and reaching its 2011 levels of $1940 should be just the start of where it eventually ascend to.

Why Gold & Silver Will Skyrocket To New All-Time Highs 
Michael Belkin: “Yellen is going to reverse course and people are going to be flooding out of the U.S. dollar, which was just a momentum play that has faded and isn’t working anymore.  So gold is going to get a currency-kicker and eventually a QE-kicker.  We are only in inning number one (of a nine inning game).  And back to the all-time highs for gold and silver, that may sound ridiculous but I think that’s just the first target.” - King World News

Monday, June 6, 2016

Horrific jobs report appears to be the trigger for recession outlook from financial economists

Just a day after the worst jobs report since 2010 was published, financial economists from both J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank have put recession outlook on high watch.
Recession models followed by both institutions show an economic recession for the U.S. economy crossing the danger point, and where these indicators have successfully forecast recessions for the last 45 years.
This is what JPM said: “This morning’s employment report also raised the recession probabilities, although for counterintuitive reasons. We do not include the payrolls number in the recession model because it is subject to larger revisions than other labor market data. But the unemployment rate enters the model in two ways. As a near-term indicator, we watch for increases in the unemployment rate that occur near the beginning of recessions. So this morning’s move down in the unemployment rate lowered the recession probability in our near-term model. But we also find the level of the unemployment rate to be one of the most useful indicators ofmedium-term recession risk. So the move down in unemployment raises the model’s view of the risk of economic overheating in the medium run and raises the “background risk” of recession.” - Zerohedge
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Saturday, June 4, 2016

Was Yellen's secret meeting at the White House to discuss quiet bank run by Americans as they move cash into gold?

There was an interesting theory being discussed earlier this week that suggests that Americans are quietly doing runs on banks in which they are taking their dollars out of the system and storing them in physical gold.  And that this phenomenon is becoming so prevalent that it may have been the primary reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's emergency secret meeting with President Barack Obama back in April.

Since the beginning of the year, sales of gold bullion have been setting new records, and the price is up over 16% since January.  And over the last 30 days alone, billionaire investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, and several hedge other fund managers, have publicly stated they are getting out of stocks and taking a good percentage of their money to purchase gold.


I believe that Yellen went to the White House to inform Obama and team that the Fed is witnessing a quiet, steady bank run taking place in the U.S. The Fed is worried about the fact that the people are apparently starting to figure out how totally corrupt the monetary and financial systems have become, and are now taking action to financially protect themselves. 
The Fed is seeing bank balances being exchanged for cash and metals. Trotting out Summers and Draghi to demonize cash ($100s and Euro 500s) backfired; savvy people said to themselves, “If the government, banker shills (e.g., Summers; Peter Sands (author of the Harvard “ban cash” paper; etc.) and bankers are saying “A,” the truth must be “Z,” and we better get some of our money out of the banks, before the bail-ins that have been legalized and formalized are actually implemented.” 
The establishment desperately needs to go to a cashless system, in order to effect the bail-in agenda, gain full-spectrum control over financial assets, and implement the IMF-proposed wealth tax, among other gambits, but they need more time to implement this. They must get non-cash payment devices into the hands of every citizen before going live with the cashless regime, but they are not there yet. However, their progress to date has been prodigious. - Investment Research Dynamics
So when you see the obvious manipulation by the Fed to attempt to drive down gold prices as a means to desperately protect the dollar and their monetary policies that will eventually steal wealth from those who store their money in bank accounts, remember that your only protection is to get out of the system entirely... otherwise the time for you to have a choice in what to do with your own wealth will be taken away from you.

June Fed rate hike chances crushed as new jobs collapse and uncounted non-workers soar

Over the past few weeks we have spoken alot on the Fed’s use of public announcements by its cadre of regional Fed Presidents to try to sway markets into believing that the central bank was sure to hike interest rates in either June or July.  And of course, inside most of this rhetoric is the single key component that is normally ignored by the computer algorithms that make up 75% of all trades, and that being the concept of data dependency.
Well in June 3, data dependency just went bye bye.
May’s non-farm payroll report just came out a couple hours ago, and it sent a shock through the entire financial system.  That is because the report printed a jobs number of just 38,000 new hires, which is the lowest single month since the height of the Great Recession back in 2010.
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Friday, June 3, 2016

Gold jumps $30 while dollar drops 100 bps as jobs report kills any chance of June rate hike

So much for the Fed sending out President after President last month to jawbone the central bank assuredly raising interest rates this month.  That is because on June 3 the newest jobs report came out, and it was perhaps the biggest blow to the long-standing meme that the economy was in total recovery.

In fact, the economy only created 38,000 jobs, which is the lowest number since September of 2010, and the smallest print since the height of the Great Recession.  But perhaps what is most chilling in all of this is that the report noted that 548,000 Americans simply vanished from the labor force, meaning they not only are out of work, but are also no longer counted by the government.

The worst jobs data since September 2010 has thrown ice cold water on The Fed's decision-making process and thrown a spanner in the market's narrative that everything is awesome. June rate hike odds crashed to 2% and July rate-hike odds plunged from 48% to 36%. The reaction to this sudden revelation of reality is striking as stocks plunge, gold soars, the US Dollar dumps and bond yields spike lower... - Zerohedge
In the meantime gold popped up $30 from the release of the jobs numbers and the dollar collapsed more than 100 bps now that the expectation of a rate hike for June has gone through the floor.

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

As the Fed jawbones recovery and normalizing interest rates, debt defaults at highest levels since December

Nearly all alternative media economists have gone public to state that it is both unlikely, and irrational for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates now, and in the near future.  And this despite the central bank’s recent jawboning on mainstream television of a potential rate hike as early as next month.
But the problem is that the Fed and other central banks have waited too long, and gone too far in their zero interest rate policies, and quantitative easing programs.  And with the odds of a rate hike shooting up since the middle of May, debt default levels, especially for credit default swaps on the 10 year Treasury, are at their highest levels since the Fed raised rates a quarter point back in December.
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Read more on this article here...

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Hedge fund managers advocate getting into gold over fears of a wealth tax and bank run on cash

Over the weekend, two well known hedge fund managers spoke on the potential for the U.S. government to soon implement a wealth tax against producers that could lead to a run on cash where they would seek to get their money out of Western institutions.  And as a solution for what both Kyle Bass and Grant Williams see coming is to buy gold as a hedge against these and other possible actions.




Kyle Bass:  "I think this is where the academics are kind of clashing with the practitioners. I think on paper negative rates make a lot of sense if you're running academic models, but in reality they make no sense. Having seven or eight trillion dollars of debt trading at negative rates, having thirty year JGB's trading at fifty basis points is absolutely ludicrous. This experiment that's going on we all know will end poorly at some point in time, I just don't know when that time is." 
"I think that one of the fears that they have is a run on cash. If they told you and I that they're going to tax your deposits by a hundred basis points, well it's better to put it in a safe or under your mattress. And that's why you see a resurgence in gold. The more they move to negative rates, the more gold is gonna take off because there's no carrying cost." - Zerohedge
And here is Grant Williams at the Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference...
"I don't buy gold, I own it. I don't buy gold at $1,100 because I think it's going to go to $1,200. I buy it for what it does, not what the price is, the price is the last consideration for me. I think the way the picture has been developing over the last eight years, it's like when you take a polaroid, you take a picture and you sit there and you watch this thing and it slowly comes into focus, and that's what it's been like for me watching gold, we're watching this picture slowly develop." 
"We're getting to the point where people are going to be able to see the picture, and at that point gold is the answer. It's not just an asset anymore it's the answer to a lot of people's questions. When that happens, I think the most important stage of this completes itself and that is the resolution between the paper price and the physical asset. I think when we get to that point where people want to own gold, ETF's won't suffice anymore. 
A promise to deliver three months hence is not going to be sufficient anymore, people are going to want to own the asset. At that point you realize that there are multiple hundreds of claims per ounce, and those claims won't be worth anything anymore it's going to be the asset, and that's the end game." 
"The picture is becoming clearer, and everything the central banks are doing is bringing that day forward a little bit." - Zerohedge