Friday, January 5, 2018

Even as gold has best year since 2010, Harry Dent doubles down in 2018 for the price to drop nearly 50% to $700

It is almost a conundrum how an analyst can be correct on so many sectors of the economy and financial system, but be completely stubborn when it comes to gold and the gold price.  In fact, despite the results that manifested over the many years since he made his now famous $400 call for the precious metal, he continues to double down that gold is not only not in a bull market, but will fall nearly 50% in price down to $700 per ounce even as it just finished its best year since 2010.

Harry Dent says goldbugs have two fatal flaws: We believe gold is a store of value, and we are ignorant of the dollar. Then Harry adds a bonus third flaw…
Perhaps you will recall that Harry Dent has been forecasting (for years) that gold is dropping to $400. Recently. last year he has upped his price target, presumably adjusting for inflation, to a gold price of $700. 
Well, today Harry is out with a new forecast, and it’s uber-bullish – for the U.S. dollar. 
Here’s the bottom line from Harry via Investing.com
I have reason to believe that it’s going to have a substantial rally again in 2018.
The reality is that I’ve been right about both gold and the dollar since the 2008 crisis. He and his fellow gold bugs have maintained that gold prices would soar to the moon, and dollar prices tank, as the greatest money printing scheme in history unfolded.
And in case anybody isn’t convinced that goldbugs are wrong, Harry offers a third fatal flaw as a bonus and puts all of our flaws in a nice numbered list for all to see:
Really, gold bugs get three very important things dead wrong: 
1.  They think that because we have been printing money at unprecedented rates, the dollar will crash; likely dropping close to zero. Either they’re smoking some good pot or they don’t understand that currencies trade relative to each other, and therefore cannot drop to zero, unless they fail like in Zimbabwe – which is rare. 
2.  They believe money printing at such high rates will cause hyperinflation at some point, especially when central banks continue to escalate their efforts exponentially during the next financial crisis. The trouble with that is, it’s been nine years since QE and unprecedented stimulus efforts began, and countries the world over have barely been able to stave off deflation! That’s because we’re in a deflationary period of declining money velocity from the aftermath of the greatest debt bubble in history. And if we fall into an even deeper crisis (as they and I predict), especially after such massive money printing, it will be a sign that none of it works. Tell me, how are central banks going to sell their plan to Joe Public to go from printing $12 trillion globally to $100 trillion to stave off the next crisis after the last $12 trillion failed? There’s just no way! 
3.  And perhaps the most egregious of all: They think that governments are on a never-ending inflation campaign to devalue the dollar and make their debts cheaper to pay off. I’ll grant you, there is an element of truth to that. After all, who wouldn’t want to make their debts cheaper? But the fact of the matter is that the dollar hasn’t been devalued to the extent they expound.They’re always throwing around the classic chart that shows that adjusting the dollar for the expansion of dollars since 1900 has resulted in the green back being devalued 97%. It’s all utter tripe! - Silver Doctors
Perhaps we can ask the Russians, Chinese, and BRICS nations whether they think gold is a store of wealth, and a hedge against the dollar.  But even without the sea-changes that are taking place halfway around the world, the price action in both gold and the dollar once again make Harry Dent's forecasts wonder fodder for the gold bugs.

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