Sunday, November 6, 2016

Moves up in gold and down in stocks over past 10 days signal the markets now believe in a strong Trump victory

For anyone who has taken the time to watch buying and selling activity in the gold markets over the past month, it was more than obvious that the takedown during the first week of October was both manufactured, and done at a time when the world's biggest physical market (China) was off for a national holiday.  And as such, once they returned gold has risen over each of the last four weeks back to above the $1300 support level.

But what is perhaps most interesting for the markets in general is the historic declines we have seen over the past 9 days in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and the 7 days in a row for the Dow, where that measured amount of negative trading has not occurred since 1980.  And this is being attributed to the sudden shift in political winds where the markets now strongly believe that Donald Trump will win the election.

Image result for trump accepts gold for deposit
The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday for a ninth straight day, the longest losing streak for the benchmark index in more than 35 years, as investors stayed on edge ahead of an uncertain U.S. election. 
The tech-heavy Nasdaq also ended lower for a ninth-consecutive session, while the Dow industrials closed down for a seventh straight day. 
Investors have been unnerved by signs of a tightening presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. 
Clinton had been thought to have a clear lead until the re-emergence last week of a controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. 
"Investors are uncertain about the outcome of the election, and they have grown more uncertain since last Friday," said Walter Todd, chief investment officer with Greenwood Capital in Greenwood, South Carolina. - Reuters
The Donald Trump phenomenon is now being paralleled to that of the UK's earlier Brexit vote from back in June, where going into the final day the markets bet heavily on a Remain outcome.  And when this did not happen following the vote, stocks, currencies, and bonds all fell drastically, and gold rose by $100 in a single day.

Some analysts are expecting more of the same come Tuesday, with equities falling by perhaps 1000 or more points on Wednesday and gold going up $100 - $150 if Trump prevails.  But this may be just the beginning of a much larger financial crisis since central banks are too hamstrung to deal with another black swan type event.

0 comments:

Post a Comment