Friday, November 25, 2016

Indian government seeks to expand war on cash to also include a war on gold as the death of fiat money becomes a global phenomenon

In India's move to end what they call 'black market' transactions by eliminating their two highest denominated currency notes, Prime Minister Modi is quickly discovering the folly of attempting to mess with the nation's money, and a system that has functioned outside of banking systems for decades.  And even as Modi's new measures of trying to force upwards of 1.3 billion people to turn in their now non-legal tender notes in exchange for a new currency has so far been a huge failure, the leader of India is now seeking to double down on capital controls and expand the war on cash to also a new war on gold.


As Bloomberg reports, the Indian government had observed a declining trend in exchange of old notes over the counter, according to a statement from the state-run Press Information Bureau. 
And so the decision to end OTC exchange of notes was to encourage people to deposit old notes in their bank accounts. 
Government allows certain exemptions for use of old notes until Dec. 15, with only 500 rupee denomination currency notes accepted for such transaction:
  • Old 500-rupee notes can be used for payment of school fees with limit; utility dues; payment of road toll fees
  • Foreigners permitted to exchange foreign currency up to 5,000 rupees/week
Furthermore, as CNBC reports, the Indian government is set to impose a 45% tax (haircut) on any suspicious deposits. 
This is a major problem as only 40% of banknotes have been exchanged according to local reports. 
We suspect the sudden urge to force citizens to deposit/exchange their old banknotes is due to the increasing prevalance of "illegal workarounds" across the nation... (as The Wall Street Journal reports
Unable to spend or deposit their sackfuls of large bank notes amid India’s crackdown on hoarding cash, business owners across the country are paying employees months of salary in advance, ringing up bogus sales and even buying gold they can smuggle overseas to get rid of stashed money or conceal its source. 
Such illegal workarounds are threatening to undercut Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move this month to cancel India’s highest-denomination rupee bills, which was meant to punish tax evaders and other criminals and bring more of the nation’s $2 trillion economy out of the shadows. - Zerohedge
And because Prime Minister Modi's scheme has failed to accomplish his desired outcome from the people, it now appears he is going after their most sacred holdings.

Their gold.
Recall, that as per our report last night, one of the reasons proposed for the recent tumble in gold has been speculation that India may ban gold imports. As a reminder, gold has traditionally been a widely-accepted cash alternative in an economy where gold has long held a supremacy over cash equivalents, to the point where recently the government started paying a dividend to those who deposit their gold to local banks for "safe keeping." 
Well, it now appears that the government is taking its crusade against gold one step futher, and according to a report by NewsRise, the Indian government may soon impose curbs on domestic holdings of gold as Modi intensifies his war against "black money", news agency NewsRise reported. 
As we reported previously, gold prices have soared in India ever since the November 8 demonetization announcement, and premiums jumped to two-year highs last week as jewellers ramped up purchases on fears the government might restrict imports after withdrawing higher-denomination notes from circulation in its fight against black money. 
India is the world's second biggest gold buyer, and it is estimated that one-third of its annual demand of up to 1,000 tonnes is paid for in black money - untaxed funds held in secret by citizens in cash that don't appear in any official accounts.
India may be the most public and most notable of countries going through the turmoil of forcing their people to change their currency, but they are far from the only nations currently implementing a ban on cash and gold.  In just the past week the countries of Australia, Uruguay, and even Spain have begun the process of eliminating large currency denominations in their economies as the world seems ripe for a new liquidity crisis that is requiring extreme measures.
India, Uruguay, Australia and now Spain. The Minister of Finance and Public Service, Cristóbal Montoro has reportedly just announced “anticipated measures in order to ‘reduce the use of cash.’ 
In other words, Spain is going to make cash transactions even more difficult. As of presstime, from what we can tell, this has yet to be reported anywhere in English media except here now at TDV. 
As you can see, the chaos is increasing. Combine cash bans with attacks on fake news (more on that tomorrow), and you end up disturbing a significant amount of people as we wrote here recently. 
This amounts to a trend of course, of the sort we’ve been analyzing for several years now. We’ve predicted increased social chaos throughout the West and beyond because globalism is not built by votes but by violence and widespread disaffection that allows globalist “solutions” to be rammed home. 
I expect “cash banning” to be speeded up along with selected attacks on the alternative media - as part of a larger effort to create widespread social dissension. People believe attacks on cash and “news” are what they seem to be on the surface. They are not. They are part of a much deeper strategy that involves additional globalism. 
We’ve expected just these sorts of actions and have profited from them for the past several years along with our newsletter subscribers. We await more of the same. 
Currently, violence spawned by this anti-cash trend can be seen in such countries as Uruguay and India where cash banning on large bills has ignited significant social chaos already. India is in the throes of riots while Uruguay has been hit with a nationwide strike aimed in part at derailing a mandate that all employers must pay employees electronically via a bank account, starting as soon as March.  - Dollar Vigilante
Perhaps one of the reasons for this sudden attack on money by governments and central banks is due to the rising dollar and the expanding liquidity crisis that the reserve currency is creating as fewer nations can afford to buy dollars for international commerce.  And with the dollar reaching a 14 year high this week by nearly touching 102 on the dollar index, history shows that anytime the reserve currency has crossed the 100 level over the past 30 years it has triggered a financial crisis somewhere, which it appears to be doing now in multiple locations.

In the latest report from ADM ISI’s strategy team, “Dollar Liquidity Threat is Getting Critical and Fed is M.I.A.”, Paul Mylchreest argues that mainstream economic luminaries (like Carmen Reinhart) are finally acknowledging the evolving crisis due to the dollar shortage outside the US, a topic which even the head researcher at the BIS shone a spotlight on yesterday suggesting that the strength of the dollar, not the VIX is the new "fear indicator". - Zerohedge
As always in history, when people lose confidence in their currencies the natural and obvious next move is to rush out of their 'money' and into tangible assets such as gold and silver.  And besides the rumors of gold soaring as high as $3600 on the black market now in India, over in Asia people are massively increasing their own buying, and are more than willing to pay high premiums to get it.

The price of gold is being attacked right now in a manner that is quite reminiscent of the way it was attacked in the summer of 2008, right before the global financial markets collapsed, led by the fall of Lehman.  Something really ugly is coming toward the global economic and financial system. 
In Viet Nam the premium paid by the public has just soared to $90 over world gold.  The spread has been wider over the last 15 years, but not much and only during times when there’s been high “backwardation” between the physical delivery bullion markets in the east vs. the fraudulent paper gold markets in London and NYC. - From PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler 
Gold was pushing $1230/oz overnight, as the methodical take-down of gold and silver in the NYC and London paper markets has triggered an avalanche of demand for physical gold in the eastern hemisphere. 
Last night ex-duty import premiums in India were $14 over spot gold.  In Shanghai the premium to world gold was $9.76.  Delivery volume into the Shanghai Gold 
Exchange rocketed to an extraordinary 86.55 tonnes (it was 35.9 tonnes on Wednesday).  The open interest on the SGE was 807 tonnes.  To one observer’s recollection, John Brimelow of John Brimelow’s Gold Jottings, this is the first time the open interest has been over 800 tonnes. 
In Viet Nam the premium paid by the public was $90 over world gold.  only during times when there’s been high “backwardation” between the physical delivery bullion markets in the east vs. the fraudulent paper gold markets in London and NYC.Silver Doctors
Just as most people imagine the strength of the economy as being tied to the value of the stock markets, so too do people erroneously picture the true value of gold as being tied to the manipulated paper spot price determined in London and the Comex.  But the coming financial crisis that has been deferred now for eight years ever since the 2008 Credit Event appears very much to be demanding a reckoning, and those who both see it early enough, as well as prepare for it, will find the ability to do so as the days of the dollar and of money quickly come to an end.


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