It was determined back in 2007 that the world had reached the point of Peak Gold, which means that the majority of easily accessible metal had already extracted from the earth and that going forward, mining costs would invariably increase just to be able to get smaller and small amounts from new gold discoveries.
Eight years later, analysts are now predicting that the industry has reached a new plateau of Peak Gold Production, and that supplies to the market will continue to decrease as well, leading to a drive up in price as demand remains steady and supplies dwindle.
This year gold has traded so strongly with the jitters in other markets that it’s easy to forget its own fundamentals.
And that might be a mistake. Because they are looking interesting.
Discoveries peaked in 2007 and production will shortly do the same, according to Canadian investment firm Sprott Asset Management. New finds have collapsed between then and now, but not for want of looking. Indeed, “exploration budgets rose 250% from 2009 to 2012,” Sprott’s gold team wrote in a recent note.
It looks as though 2015 may be the peak year of global production – about 95 million ounces. On an annualised basis, the decline would be about 2.2% a year out to 2024 it said.
This will be supportive of gold prices, which are already up more than 24% this year. But it also looks interesting for miners. It is likely that there will be a “significant wave of M&A (mergers and acquisitions) within the industry” because “companies need to replace both reserve and production ounces”. - News Markets