Saturday, July 30, 2016

Gold crosses a milestone that historically guarantees another 40-412% in price growth

Before the advent of central bank intervention into the markets, most investors relied upon fundamentals and technical analysis when researching the future of a company stock, or the potential growth in resource commodities.  And while past history does not always guarantee future trends, the likelihood of certain benchmarks being crossed places the probability of such moves in the 75-95% range.

This week, technical analysis for gold reached one of those historical milestones, and in all past bull markets for the metal, the upside once reaching that benchmark has always been between 40 and 412%.

Strategically, it’s been even longer since we updated our longer-term framework for gold.  In fact, it’s been three months since we did that in this post.  In that May piece we suggested the metal continued to track favorably vs. our bullish expectations, but in the near-term it faced a major test having rallied nearly +25% off its Dec-15 low, a historical demarcation point whereby cyclical retracement rallies were either snuffed out with a resumption of a secular bear beginning afresh, or, the same moves continued higher, indicative of a new secular bull being underway.
Where do we now stand vs. that +25% demarcation point? 
As of month-end today, gold is up over 27% from its Dec-15 lows. 
This a major milestone – any time gold has managed a move of at least 25% off a major low, it has continued higher every single time with incremental gains ranging from 21%-412%, with the average totaling 175%. - Only Prices Matter

2016-07-29 Gold - Rallies of at Least 25 Percent off a Major Low - Monthly

Chart courtesy of Only Prices


Celebs try to get away with some strange trends in the summer. Thigh-high suede boots, for example, are extremely popular with a certain set. This week overalls are making a mild comeback, though honestly I feel like some celeb or another gets the nifty idea to wear overalls in public replica handbags every six months or so. Then a smattering of other celebs try it, and we have to give serious thought to the trendiness of overalls, at least biannually. But rest easy; there's no need to run out and purchase a pair. Celebrities can get away with anything. The rest of us are mere mortals. We'll begin this prada outlet celeb bag round-up with Alessandra Ambrosio, hanging out in her native Brazil with a creamy white leather Chloe Hudson Bag. I think we can all agree that everything about this photo of a Brazilian supermodel in Brazil is PEAK Brazil. Bella Hadid was spotted outside The Nice Guy with cheap louis vuitton an older Chanel bag that we suspect she borrowed from mom's closet. This Chanel style probably dates from the mid-aughts. Also, can anyone decipher that extremely cryptic message on her t-shirt? I feel like Bella is trying to tell us something. Finally, here's indie chanteuse St. Vincent, leaving The longchamp sale Crosby Hotel to go to the Suicide Squad premiere to support girlfriend Cara Delevingne. She's carrying a bright red Chanel Flap.

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