On July 22, an economist for ABN Amro bank forecast that if Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election, gold prices could climb to $1850 per ounce as his winning in November will be good for the yellow metal.
In a look at what global finance and trade would be under a Trump presidency, economist and precious metals analyst Georgette Boele wrote that the current trade system that the U.S. has with its foreign partners would be 'torn up', and would have discernible effects to currencies, bonds, and the entire economic system.
Trump’s pledge to tear up trade agreements and a rise in overall uncertainty over the policy outlook would likely dent the U.S. economy while spurring a rise in demand for gold, said Georgette Boele, a currency and precious-metals analyst at ABN Amro, in a Friday note.
To be sure, Boele’s forecast is based on highly pessimistic expectations in regard to Trump’s likely economic polices.
“If Trump were to become president, gold prices will likely perform well, because we expect that his policies will be inward looking and will weaken the fundamentals of the
U.S. economy,” Boele said. “In addition, his rhetoric and possibly policy actions could create domestic and international uncertainty at best, and upheaval at worst.”
Weaker U.S. growth would help push gold toward $1,850 an ounce “over the coming years,” she said. That would be a 40% rise from gold’s GCQ6, -0.67% current level just above $1,320 an ounce. Gold has rallied nearly 25% in 2016. - Market Watch