Thursday, June 30, 2016

As Deutsche Bank teeters on edge of collapse, rise in gold prices signal warning of pending monetary collapse

Since the price of gold has been rising steadily since January of this year, we already know that it wasn't simply last week's Brexit event which created the catalyst for gold prices to climb to a new two-year high.  And following Britain's historic move to leave the European Union six days ago, analysts are now seeing gold signal a warning sign that a larger monetary event may be just on the horizon.

Modern financial collapses tend not to come from economic recession or declines in the stock markets, but rather in liquidity crises that emerge from insolvent banks... such as from those we saw from Northern Rock in 2007, and Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros, and Morgan Stanley a year later.  And with the Federal Reserve's stress tests on banks coming to a completion, fears are emerging that Germany's largest financial institution is ready bring about a new monetary collapse.

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted. 
Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime. 
The IMF also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally. This means that in the global interconnected game of counterparty dominoes, if Deutsche Bank falls, everyone else will follow. - Zerohedge
There is a reason why the 'smartest men in the room' have been not only divesting themselves and the funds they manage out of stocks, and instead are using those proceeds to buy into gold as their largest investment.  And that reason is because the global financial system is going through a fundamental sea-change, and as yet there is no clear determination on how things will play out... only that it is crucial to be in some form of physical safe haven asset that carries no counter-party risk from the paper markets.

Gold has always acted as a barometer for the strength or weakness of currencies, but in today's paper and electronic monetary system, it now acts as a warning sign on the strength of banks, markets, and economies as well.  And with central banks, sovereign governments, hedge funds, and those few who have woken up to the warnings on the horizon having bought gold to the point that supplies are now extremely tight even before the crash begins, it is unlikely that there will be much supply left at all for those who do not buy into gold now rather than wait until it is far too late to acquire it.

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