One of the most significant elements in gold price determination is the technical data points that usually spark the central banks to summarily kill any rally, and work to suppress the price using billions in paper contracts. We saw this most recently on April 21 when in less than 5 minutes, a bullion bank dumped over $2 billion in naked gold contracts, which is 20% of the global mining output for the precious metal.
But these desperate efforts are quickly beginning to fail, and have only a very short-term affect on a price that is strongly in favor of going much higher. And just as quickly as the central banks and Treasury ordered their lackey banks to naked short gold to protect the dollar five days ago, the price rebounded strongly to actually close the day in the green by a few dollars.
In the newest publication put out today by Dr. Jim Willie, the esteemed statistician and analyst announced that with the opening of China's new price mechanism at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the final battle between paper and physical gold is underway, and the last line of defense for the paper markets is to hold the $1300 price.
Currently, the number of contracts on the COMEX represents 300 times as much paper gold as there is physical metal in the COMEX vaults. Moreover, this number has ballooned at a faster pace over the past two years or so. The 300:1 ratio of contracts to physical ounces is propped by powerful restrictions. The COMEX forbids delivery of gold on the ramps to satisfy a gold contract, under threat of banning the party from participation and entry in the door. Almost nobody takes actual delivery of their metal, except for the big Wall Street banks which steal gold from other depositors. These banks also routinely rig the windows to enable removal of investor gold in the GLD Exchange Traded Fund, and silver from the similar SLV fund. Imagine a gold futures contract with no delivery possible. How absurd! But it has been the reality since June 2012.
The situation is perhaps even more frightening in the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA). This market sees $trillions worth of gold trades every day. The activity is truly baffling. On individual trading days, more gold changes hands within contract trading (paper shuffling) across the London market than all the available gold in the world. Yet no metal moves anywhere, in a grand charade. These are merely paper transactions, with almost no actual metal ever in movement. The staggering leverage and dilution should not make any sense to the rational observer. However, in sharp contrast, the Eastern nations are accumulating gold in large volume.
GOLD & SILVER PRICE REVERSALS
The gold reaction to the Shanghai market development has been muted. But a powerful reversal is in progress, which should be impossible to halt or to obstruct. An unsual pattern shows itself in an upward bias Cup & Handle toward a reversal, where the $1300 level is well defended. – Jim Willie, Silver Doctors