Contrary to the ‘head on the sand’ rhetoric that is coming from the Fed and mainstream business news regarding jobs, employment, and how the economy is really doing, the bottom line numbers have already signaled recession in the manufacturing side of the economy, and all that remains is for the service sector to hop on board. But as the central bank Chair earlier this week pointed towards uncertainty in the markets that are now having an effect on their ability to raise interest rates as promised in December, new data out today pretty much ensures there won’t be a rate hike for at least several months, if not at all for the rest of the year.
This is because on March 31, new jobless claims numbers came in and they were discovered to be at the highest rate in two years.
With both ISM Manufacturing and Services employment indices collapsing, endless headlines of layoffs, Challenger-Grey noting Q1 as the worst since 2009, and NFIB small business hiring weak, it is no surprise that initial jobless claims is finally waking up. For the 3rd week in a row – the longest streak since July 2015. The last 3 weeks have seen a 9.1% surge in jobless claims – the biggest such rise since April 2014. – Zerohedge