As we near Christmas, and the final weeks of 2016, the time for economic predictions and forecasts are starting to come from both mainstream, and alternative news sources. And when it comes to global forecasts, very few can put themselves in the same league as the undisputed leader in trends tracking, that being Gerald Celente of the Trends Journal.
On Monday, Gerald Celente sat down with USA Watchdog's Greg Hunter to discuss both current, and future trends that are coming over the horizon for 2016. And just as Celente last year predicted the rise of chaotic geo-politics that we have and are seeing now in 2015, it will only be the precursor to even greater economic calamities, currency disruptions, and an expansion of war drums heading into next year.
Celente on the Economy
Top trends forecaster Gerald Celente says 2016 is going to be very rough. What’s coming right at us? Celente says, “Global recession, and it’s already happening, all they have to do is open their eyes and open their ears. Iron ore, copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, one after another from wheat to dairy products to corn. When you look at the Bloomberg Index, it’s down to 1999 levels on average. What is that telling us? There is too much product and not enough demand. It’s the same thing with oil. There’s too much production and not enough demand. . . . What we are looking at is a global slowdown because commodities are the canary in the mine shaft.”On Geo-politics and War
On global war, Celente says, “Unfortunately, when all else fails, they take us to war. Look, go back to 1929 and the market crash. You had market crashes, Great Depression, currency wars, trade wars, world war. Voila, here we are again. Panic of ‘08, Great Recession, currency wars world war. . . . When the market collapses, the war talk will heat up.”And on Gold and Silver
Gold and silver are running counter to other commodities. Why? Celente says, “Demand is up for gold and silver. To me, it is the ultimate safe haven. I’ve been saying since 2012 and 2013 that the bottom for gold is about $1,050 an ounce. I gave that number out because that’s about what it costs to pull it out of the ground. . . . Gold is about planning for the worst.”
So, is the spike in gold and silver demand a precursor to the next crash, which Celente is predicting to be coming soon? Celente says, “I totally believe so. . . . It’s definitely worse now. Look at the bubble they created. . . . If there is a terror strike, they will use this as the excuse to rob us to try to mitigate the disaster that they have caused. I believe they will declare a bank holiday and devalue the currency. That’s the way they are going to get us out of this.”
Besides Gerald Celente's forecast for recession and war, another alternative media economist also agrees with most if not all of these assessments, and expands upon the fragility of the economy, even as the holiday season's retail numbers pop 10% below last year's horrific outcome.
#1 On Tuesday, the price of oil closed below 40 dollars a barrel. Back in 2008, the price of oil crashed below 40 dollars a barrel just before the stock market collapsed, and now it has happened again.
#2 The price of copper has plunged all the way down to $2.04. The last time it was this low was just before the stock market crash of 2008.
#3 The Business Roundtable’s forecast for business investment in 2016 has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession.
#4 Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession. This is a huge problem because corporate debt in the U.S. has approximately doubled since just before the last financial crisis.
#5 The Bloomberg U.S. economic surprise index is more negative right now than it was at any point during the last recession.
#6 Credit card data that was just released shows that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession.
#7 As I mentioned yesterday, U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last recession.
#8 The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. Not even during the depths of the last recession was it ever this low.
#9 In 2008, commodity prices crashed just before the stock market did, and late last month the Bloomberg Commodity Index hit a 16 year low. #10 In the past, stocks have tended to crash about 12-18 months after a peak in corporate profit margins. At this point, we are 15 months after the most recent peak. #11 If you look back at 2008, you will see that junk bonds crashed horribly. Why this is important is because junk bonds started crashing before stocks did, and right now they have dropped to the lowest point that they have been since the last financial crisis.
If just one or two of these indicators were flashing red, that would be bad enough.
The fact that all of them seem to be saying the exact same thing tells us that big trouble is ahead.
And I am not the only one saying this. Just today, a Reuters article discussed the fact that Citigroup analysts are projecting that there is a 65 percent chance that the U.S. economy will plunge into recession in 2016… Author Robert Kiyosaki: ‘Biggest’ Market Crash Likely in 2016 Author Robert Kiyosaki: ‘Biggest’ Market Crash Likely in 2016 Important: Can you afford to Retire? Robert Kiyosaki, best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” warns that stock market manipulation may result in a crash bigger than in 2007. Gold and silver have crashed. Junk bonds have crashed. Chinese stocks have crashed. The Global Economy Is Officially Melting Down – Investment Watchblog
All predictions and forecasts are never written in stone, and quite often the hit rates on many of these can be around 50% or less. But of the analysts who publicly make economic forecasts each year for investors, companies, and even the general public, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, and Dr. Jim Willie are by far the most accurate in their assessments, and have a proven track record of predicting the last major financial crisis more than a year before it occurred in 2008.
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