Thursday, November 15, 2012

New job loss report: To those who believed the White House, here's your sign

For the limited few out there who actually believed the September BLS report that showed the unemployment rate falling from 8.1% to 7.8%, all we at the Daily Economist have to say is, Here's your sign.

Primarily, the drop in unemployment just weeks before the election was so obvious, and so blatent, and so large, that every analyst with a modicum of respect knew that after Nov. 6, the revisions of those numbers would either pop the rate back over 8%, or quite discouragingly, move the numbers even higher than what it was.

Picture courtesy of Fox and Friends

The latest initial claims data posted a multi-year high 104,548 surge in weekly NSA claims from 361,800 to 466,348, and even the Seasonally adjusted number soaring from 361K to 439K on expectations of a 375K print. In other words, a complete disaster for any economic data bulls. What is truly amusing is that the same Wall Street "experts" who set expectations were unable to foresee the Sandy effect that every "macrotourist" on Twitter apparently is so very aware of. Also, it is apparently also "Sandy's fault" (now that the Bush excuse is back in retirement) that the prior week's claims were revised from 355K to 361K. Basically, just as we said 3 weeks ago, ignore every negative data point: - Zerohedge

Interestingly, these numbers come just before the onset of Black Friday, and the seasonal increase of temporary jobs leading into, and through Christmas.  What indications then should we expect from here, as to the retail sales for the 2012 holiday by businesses?

Not much.


Post a Comment