Friday, November 4, 2011

Today's job reports are meaingless as the US needs to create more than 250,000 per month to break even

Today's job report of 90000 new jobs created, and the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 9.0 were simply fake window dressing that even the markets did not accept as good news (Dow opened up -70 points).  In fact, the birth/death adjustment ended up being more than the actual net jobs created, which tells you the Labor Department had to scramble to even make the report positive.

However, the underlying issue still remains the 9% unemployed, the 16% TRULY unemployed, and the dire fact that the US would need to create 262,500 jobs per month through 2016 just to get back even with December of 2007.

"Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016. This calculation takes into account the historical change in Payroll and includes the 90,000/month natural growth to the labor force, and extrapolates into the future. And every time we rerun this calculation, the number of jobs that has to be created to get back to baseline increases: First it was 245,500 in April, then 250,000 in June, then 254,000 in July [then 261,200 in October]. As of today, following the just announced "beat" of meager NFP expectations, this number has has just risen to an all time high 261,200 262,500. This means that unless that number of jobs is created each month for the next 5 years, America will have a higher unemployment rate in October 2016 than it did in December 2007. - Zerohedge

And there appears to be no question today on the floor of the exchanges of how meaningless today's job report is.  But to the American people, it is a another month of hopium and delerium that will make for a very disappointing Christmas season.


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