The Israel Deception

Is the return of Israel in the 20th century truly a work of God, or is it a result of a cosmic chess move to deceive the elect by the adversary?

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Gold vs. Stocks: Trend ratios looking exactly like 2007 just prior to financial collapse

Contrary to the year of the financial EVENT in 2008 that changed the global economy forever, the circumstances behind the Credit Crisis started in 2007 with the collapse of the housing bubble, and the apex of the six year equity Bull Market.  And one thing it also triggered was the beginning of the next leg of the Bull Market in gold, which would move from the $700's to a new all-time high of over $1900 in a short period of time.

There are many things that act as warnings and signposts for future events, and one of these has occurred since the beginning of the year which parallels 2007, and the beginning of events that led to a worldwide financial collapse.

The ratio between gold growth and stock market declines.

As you can see on this chart, the 2016 performances of both gold and the S&P 500 are exactly the same as the performance of each back in 2007.
Gold is enjoying an incredible year, surging 22 percent as the S&P 500is barely positive. What's rare is for the yellow metal to outperform the market so dramatically in a year when stocks are up. 
In fact, going back to 1980, there has been only year in which gold has outperformed the S&P by 20 percent or more while the latter was positive on the year: 2007. 
Both gold and the fear-measuring CBOE Volatility Index surged in the second half of that year, even as stocks maintained their footing. The crash, of course, came in 2008. - CNBC

Monday, May 2, 2016

Gold crosses $1300 and silver $18 on first trading day in May

Last week we wrote about the importance of gold closing above its heavy resistance point of $1285, and whether the bullion banks would attempt to naked short the price on Sunday with a massive number of paper contracts.  And as we begin a new trading month here in May, it appears that we had at least a minor capitulation from the cartel as gold not only rose above $1300 per ounce this morning, but it is mirroring the dollar as the reserve currency continues to decline precipitously.
A lack of intervention in the Yen and strength in EUR have combined to weigh on the US dollar. Bloomberg's USD Index is back at one-year lows as, while overnight chaos sent stocks higher, it has driven investors into the safety of bonds (Treasury yields down 2-3bps) and precious metals. Gold topped $1300 and Silver $18. - Zerohedge

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Gold ends April up 4 percent, and at 15 month high

When gold began to move in early January, many thought it was simply a knee-jerk reaction from equity sellers moving into the metal as a safe haven because bond yields offered almost infinitesimal returns.  However, with gold not only withstanding the paper onslaughts by the cartel in both February and March, its recovery and explosion upward in April has proven that gold is now in the next leg of a Bull Market.

Gold closed on April 29 at $1293 per ounce, which means that it rose by 4% over the course of the month, and ended on the last trading day at a 15 month high.

Gold and silver futures rallied Friday, posting the highest settlements since January 2015, as a slump in the greenback to its lowest level in about 11 months lured investors into dollar-denominated commodities. 
June gold GCM6, +2.25%  jumped $24.10, or 1.9%, to settle at $1,290.50 an ounce, marking a fifth straight day of gains. The settlement was the best since late Jan. 2015. Prices ended roughly 4.4% higher for the month, based on the most-active contracts, and were up over 5% on the week. - Marketwatch
Heading into May, the most important thing to watch is the U.S. dollar, which closed on Friday just barely over 93 on the index.  And if it begins to slide next week when the markets re-open, then chances are very good it will collapse into the 80's very quickly, and the gold price will skyrocket towards $1400 with little resistance.

Zimbabwe becomes newest economy to demand an end to sanctions against Russia

Earlier this week, a majority of France’s parliament voted to end their nation’s policy of Russian sanctions in light of a continuing deterioration in their economic output.  And on April 30 another economy, this one from Africa, joined its voice in calling for an end of trade restrictions against Russia that were forged out of Washington’s desire for a resurgence of a cold war against Moscow.
The condemnation of current and ongoing sanctions on Russia by the U.S. was provided by Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, who spoke out against Washington during trade talks with Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov.
chna africa trade

FDIC closes second bank of 2016 in Memphis, Tennessee

On April 29, the FDIC closed down is second bank for 2016 as Trust Company Bank shuttered its doors.  This institution is the second bank failure in the past two months, with North Milwaukee State Bank being closed down by regulators in March.
This bank failure is the first for the month of April and brings the overall number of bank closures in 2016 to 2.
4/29/2016 *** Tennessee *** Memphis *** Trust Company Bank *** $7.2 million dollar estimated FDIC DIF cost.
The total DIF for failed banks this week is $9.6 million.

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Islamic world and sharia banking will soon have a gold backed currency and financial system

We have talked extensively on how China, Russia, and many of the BRICS nations are preparing for a return to the gold standard in both trade and currencies.  But a new report out from the Middle East shows that the Islamic world is also forging out protocols to institute the use of physical gold in sharia banking.

The significance of this new program is that to accommodate Islam's religious mandate for gold backed money, a new and extremely large buying program will have to take place among several Middle Eastern nations, with demand for gold stretching already short supplies to a breaking point, and where prices will skyrocket from this new source of demand.

“Shariah-compliant gold demand may be `hundreds of tons’  …  Gold products used in Islamic finance would need to be physically-backed and allocated to the underlying asset, according to a draft of a standard for Shariah gold being developed.  “We are almost there” with a final proposal, said Mohd Daud Bakar, a Shariah scholar who is writing the draft for the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions, the Bahrain-based industry group that sets Shariah standards in finance.”
Shariah finance is non-interest based finance. It’s religiously unacceptable to extract interest from others if you are a Muslim – that’s usury, also known as riba. So financial instruments have to be tailored to Islamic communities to ensure that they are not in violation of the Koran. 
Shariah compliant gold investing will be configured so no precious metals are borrowed, loaned out or earn income.  Thus the investor – consumer or institutional – will be confident that the actual gold holding consists of physical precious metals. The bars will be numbered and noted. The only profit to be earned will be based on the value of gold moving up. This will involve physical precious metal purchases, but ETFs can be structured similarly and already have been. 
The Bloomberg report quoted above indicates the committee formed to develop the Shariah standard is moving fast. It will “meet once more next Sunday and then submit the proposal to AAOIFI’s Shariah Board.” The physical gold backing is the most important aspect and disqualifies COMEX gold futures. However, the Singapore gold contract will qualify as Shariah compliant, according to the Bloomberg analyst. - Dollar Vigilante

Friday, April 29, 2016

Gold price reaches most important point of resistance that could send it to $1400 or higher

A few weeks ago I wrote on the major resistance point for gold that the cartel has gone out of their way to protect since the beginning of this new bull market, and until now, each time the price has crossed over $1280 it has been pushed down hard with naked paper shorting.

But as we have seen at least three times since the beginning of the year, the bit is in the mouth of the precious metal, and we are once again at the most important point of resistance that if broken through, could send gold easily to $1400 within days.
As we see the gold/silver ratio approach support at 70 we would once again favour gold over silver, both from the expectation that a continued rally in silver will be difficult without the support from gold but also as an insurance policy should the rally once again run out of steam. During a correction silver is likely to take a bigger hit than gold. Not least considering the speculative net-long positioning which has reach record levels.

Gold has been range bound since February but now once again challenging resistance at $1,285/oz.
Spot Gold
Source: SaxoTraderGO

Despite numerous false flag terror attacks to keep France in line, French MP’s vote to remove sanctions against Russia

For several years now, France has been slowly moving away from U.S. hegemony and into better relations with Vladimir Putin and Russia.  And in response to this, the EU nation has experienced numerous assassinations and false flag terror attacks that mirror those done under Operation Gladio from the Cold War days.
Yet even with all of this, on April 28 members of France’s parliament voted to lift their participation in U.S. led sanctions against Russia in the hopes that a return to open trade will take place and save the desperate straits of France’s declining economy.

Guest Post: Gold and Negative Interest Rates

Guest Post - Dan Popescu,

gold and negative interest

We hear more and more talk about moving into negative interest rates in the US. In a recent article former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke asks the question as to what tools the Fed has left to support the economy and discusses in this article the use of negative rates. We have to first define what we mean by negative interest rates. For nominal rates it’s simple. When the interest rate charged goes negative we have negative nominal rates. To get the real rate of interest from the nominal rate we have to subtract inflation. That’s what we call the illusion of inflation.

real effective fed funds rate

Real interest rates have been negative fairly often, including for most of the period since 2009. The problem then comes in choosing the appropriate measure of inflation. Since the calculation of inflation is highly subjective and easy to manipulate I came to adjust nominal prices to gold to get the real interest rates. In the chart below you can see nominal U.S. 10-year Treasury rates versus gold-adjusted rates since 1962.

US 10 years tresury rates

Ben Bernanke says in his article that, “The fundamental economic constraint on how negative interest rates can go is that, beyond a certain point, people will just choose to hold currency, which pays zero interest. (It’s not convenient or safe for most people to hold large amounts of currency, but at a sufficiently negative interest rate, banks or other institutions could profit from holding cash, for a fee, on behalf of customers). Based on calculations of how much it would cost banks to store large quantities of currency in their vaults, the Fed staff concluded in 2010 that the interest rate paid on bank reserves in the U.S. could not practically be brought lower than about -0.35 percent.”

In Japan, the European Union and Switzerland, where negative interest rates are already there, an increased demand was observed for safes and cash. When negative rates took effect in mid-February in Japan, queries about home safes surged, especially from customers aged 50 and over. Sales of safes are now running some 40 to 50 percent above this time last year, according to a Reuters’ article. In the European Union Reuters reports the same trend. The European Central Bank's negative interest rates are sparking demand for safe deposit boxes, where bank customers can store cash to avoid the prospect of paying the bank interest on their accounts, said German bankers to Reuters. The same trend was observed recently in Switzerland, not only with private investors but also with pension fund managers.

At the same time, we learn that negative rates have boosted demand for gold in Japan. According to Takahiro Ito, chief manager at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.’s store in Tokyo’s Ginza shopping district, “Many customers are wagering that it’s better to turn their savings to gold as a safe asset rather than deposit money at banks that offer low interest rates,” reports Bloomberg. Consumer gold demand in Japan rose to 32.8 metric tonnes in 2015 from 17.9 tonnes a year earlier, also reports Bloomberg in the same article. Gold bar sales climbed by 35 percent to 8,192 kilograms in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., the country’s biggest bullion retailer, said, according to Bloomberg.

A boom in safe-deposit-box companies was also observed in Switzerland in the canton of Ticino, according to another Bloomberg article. The rise of safe-deposit boxes has created a boon for jewelers along Lugano’s Via Nassa, home to Cartier, Bulgari, and Bucherer boutiques, as people race to convert cash into assets they can lock away. Bloomberg reports that, “Investors are buying more gold as an alternative to holding Swiss franc cash deposits, according to Vontobel Holding AG, a Swiss bank and wealth manager… “We keep noticing that gold is coming back into favour with investors,” said Vontobel’s Chief Executive Officer Zeno Staub.”

Gold in a negative interest environment is the best way to store large amounts of cash. A gold coin of 1 once (31.1 grams) stores about $1,230 while a one-kilogram bar of gold stores about $39,620 today and is just about the size of your palm. With the threat of banning cash and with the one-hundred-dollar bill being the largest denomination, both in the U.S. and Canada, you can easily see the advantage of holding gold in a safe or under the mattress. In the European Union there is also talk of banning large euro denominations like the 500-euro bill.The largest denomination in the UK is just 50 pounds.

gold bar

But negative interest rates also increase the cost of doing business for the banks, which find it hard to pass on those costs to borrowers, therefore weakening the banking system. This has the effect of encouraging people to buy gold and hold it outside the banking system despite the inconveniences. It is for this reason some economists are associating negative interest rates with a ban on physical currency. In order to impose effectively negative rates, you must have control of people’s cash. The state can easily control access to electronic money by limiting the amount of withdrawal from the banking system just with a small adjustment in the software. The state can stop printing fiat money but it can’t easily ban physical currency like gold and silver. It is estimated that there is approximately 20% of the above-ground gold in private hands and in the purest bullion form. A large part of the jewelry stock can also be used, if necessary, as cash.

Above ground stocks of gold

Today in this negative interest rate environment you should be more concerned about the return of your money, than the return on your money. Compared with negative interest rates it is obvious why people are rediscovering the value of holding gold. Gold tends to perform well in declining or negative real interest-rate environments. The more central banks move to negative rates, the more gold is going to take off because there's no carrying cost. High real rates are bad for gold while negative real rates are good for gold.

Real rates & gold

3 months real rates & gold

3 motnhs real rates & gold since 2006

Thursday, April 28, 2016

The big gold short: More paper gold is traded in London everyday than all available physical gold in the world

In the movie The Big Short, banks were buying and selling derivatives on mortgage bonds at rates of hundreds if not thousands of times the actual number of houses tied to those bonds.  In fact, it was the advent of the Synthetic CDO (collateralized debt obligation) that turned a housing crisis into a global financial collapse.

Yet because global governments didn't unwind these trades when the need for a bailout came, and jail the bankers who created the environment for global collapse, they simply gave the criminals on Wall Street and London the motivation to keep committing fraud and manipulation in not only the housing market, but in every market.

Following the decision to keep interest rates down to near zero, and initiating a program of money printing that was labeled as 'Quantitative Easing', central banks desperately needed to keep the price of gold down so that the true value of the dollar, euro, and yen would not be realized by the public or general economy.  And they did this by removing all protections to the gold market and allowing paper derivative contracts to dictate the physical markets.  And now five years later, that manipulation has reached levels where more paper gold contracts are traded everyday in London than the total amount of physical gold that is available in the entire world.

Currently, the number of contracts on the COMEX represents 300 times as much paper gold as there is physical metal in the COMEX vaults. Moreover, this number has ballooned at a faster pace over the past two years or so. The 300:1 ratio of contracts to physical ounces is propped by powerful restrictions. The COMEX forbids delivery of gold on the ramps to satisfy a gold contract, under threat of banning the party from participation and entry in the door. Almost nobody takes actual delivery of their metal, except for the big Wall Street banks which steal gold from other depositors. These banks also routinely rig the windows to enable removal of investor gold in the GLD Exchange Traded Fund, and silver from the similar SLV fund. Imagine a gold futures contract with no delivery possible. How absurd! But it has been the reality since June 2012. 
The situation is perhaps even more frightening in the London Bullion Market Assn (LBMA). This market sees $trillions worth of gold trades every day. The activity is truly baffling. On individual trading days, more gold changes hands within contract trading (paper shuffling) across the London market than all the available gold in the world. Yet no metal moves anywhere, in a grand charade. These are merely paper transactions, with almost no actual metal ever in movement. The staggering leverage and dilution should not make any sense to the rational observer. However, in sharp contrast, the Eastern nations are accumulating gold in large volume. - Dr. Jim Willie, Silver Doctors
And now you see why the new gold price mechanism initiated at the Shanghai Gold Exchange will soon be the most powerful change agent the world has seen in perhaps 100 years.  Because not only will it allow gold prices to finally break away from their paper restricted manipulations, but it will eventually force all assets to be laid bare when gold is once again the underlying foundation of all money.